Food Security Crisis in Ethiopia and Eritrea

	Ethiopia	Eritrea
Total Population	65 million	3.5 million
People at Risk in Average Year	1-3 million	330,000

2003
People at Risk	0 - 14 million	1.1 million
Projected Production	8.5-9.5 million MT	50-60,000 MT
Projected Food Gap	1.5 -2.2 million MT	283,000 MT

Background

• Inadequate and erratic rains over short and long rainy seasons have resulted in widespread crop failure and created a grim humanitarian outlook in Eritrea and across large areas of eastern and southwestern Ethiopia.
• A process of impoverishment over recent years, exacerbated by only a partial recovery from the most recent 1999/2000 food security crisis, has increased many communities' vulnerability to current shocks.
• Widely observed pre-famine indicators include:
  • Rapid rise in grain prices
  • Non-availability of short season produce
  • Non-availability of seed
  • Significant livestock death/poor terms of trade for livestock
  • Deterioration in nutritional status
• The next significant harvest is not expected until November 2003.
• The October 2002 WFP/FAO/Government of Eritrea crop assessment has estimated the total harvest country wide at 54,000 MT, just 20% of last years production of 246,000 MT, as a result of erratic rain.

Government and World Food Program Appeals: Contributions and Shortfalls

Ethiopia*			Eritrea
	Oct-Dec 2002	Jan-Dec 2003	Nov 2002-Dec 2003
Need (in metric tons)	278,000 MT	1.5 - 2.2 million MT	350,000 MT
USG Response to Date	234,000 MT	22,000 MT	44,000 MT
Current Unmet Need	44,000 MT	1.4 - 2.1 million MT	306,000 MT

*Ethiopia's donor- supported 300,000 MT grain reserve currently stands at 70,000 MTs; more than 200,000 MTs have already been released against pledges from the international donors and the Ethiopian government. ( For example, 416(b) and Title II donations arriving in September and January repay the reserves for stocks already released to WFP for distribution.)