| U.S. Government Assistance to Eastern Europe under the Support for East European Democracy (SEED) Act -FY 2004 Released by the Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs January 2005 II. Country Assessment--Bosnia-Herzegovina U.S. STRATEGIC INTERESTS Though Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) has achieved much in the nine years since the Dayton Agreement, it remains a fragile state in a potentially volatile region. Over the past year, there has been significant progress in establishing state-level defense, intelligence, law enforcement, and judicial bodies, but these new structures are still in their early stages. The Bosnian economy is still in transition to the market and is heavily dependent on foreign aid. With its porous borders, complex and overlapping layers of government, persistent corruption, and still weak state-level institutions, BiH is an attractive destination and transit point for terrorists and traffickers. It is in the U.S. interest to help Bosnia strengthen its institutions, reduce its dependency on foreign assistance, and complete the transition to a modern European state, tied to Euro-Atlantic institutions, which contributes to regional stability. The coming year will be particularly important, as NATO’s Stabilization Force (SFOR) has been replaced by an European Union (EU) military force and a small NATO headquarters, while Bosnia seeks to launch Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) negotiations with the EU.
OVERVIEW OF U.S. GOVERNMENT ASSISTANCE
In FY 2004, the U.S. Government (USG) provided an estimated $68.96 million in assistance to BiH:
$ 9.41 million in economic reform programs;
$ 3.86 million in social reform programs (including USAID health sector reform);
$ 34.01 million in security, regional stability, and law enforcement programs; and
$ 2.92 million in cross-sectoral and other programs. In FY 2004, a total of 123 Bosnians traveled to the U.S. on USG-funded exchange programs. U.S. ASSISTANCE PRIORITIES Democratic Reform Programs: In FY 2004, USG-funded democratic reform assistance focused on the modernization and reform of political parties, promoting greater transparency and efficiency in government, strengthening local governance, and providing technical assistance for municipal investments in revenue-generating projects. Assistance was targeted at preparing for the October 2004 municipal elections, in which mayors were elected directly for the first time. USG assistance to civil society funded an extensive capacity-building program and supported successful public campaigns for governmental policy change. The USG also provided funding to NGOs for anti-corruption activities, policy research, financial reporting, and domestic fundraising. The USG funded small grants for projects promoting local democracy, refugee return opportunities, citizen participation, voter awareness, and assistance to trafficking victims. USG assistance provided funding to improve the quality of news and radio/television programming available to all Bosnians, and helped in the development of the legal, regulatory, and policy environment for media in BiH. Economic and Social Sector Reform: Economic and social sector reform assistance in FY 2004 focused on small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) development, restructuring of Bosnia’s domestic debt (estimated at over 200 percent of GDP), implementation of a transparent tax administration system, streamlining and rationalizing direct taxation, and transparent and efficient government budget formulation. USG assistance also focused on developing and strengthening banking supervision and deposit insurance agencies, promoting commercial law reform, and instituting internationally recognized accounting standards in BiH. The U.S. funded financial reviews of state-owned companies and supported restructuring of the energy sector, an area with unique potential to create export earnings and provide employment. Concerning refugee returns, USG programs provided income-generation grants and loans to promote economic self-sufficiency in returnee areas. Security, Regional Stability, and Law Enforcement: In FY 2004, USG assistance helped establish state-level Ministries of Defense and Security, the State Investigative and Protection Agency or SIPA (an FBI-like agency), and provided technical assistance to the State Border Service in border control and customs. Assistance promotes U.S. defense reform objectives and contributes to the professionalization of the BiH military. USG funding helped strengthen the police and judicial sectors, improving their counter-terrorism capabilities and their ability to investigate and prosecute complex crimes and combat trafficking in persons (TIP). Developing domestic capacity to investigate, apprehend, and try war crimes cases is a priority; in FY 2004, the U.S. funded a project manager and provided start-up funding for the establishment of a Special Chamber for War Crimes and a War Crimes Registry in the Bosnian state court. The U.S. also seconds prosecutors and judges to the State Court and State Prosecutor's Office to assist in building local capacity. SECTORAL ASSESSMENTS Democratic Reform Though burdened by a complicated, unsustainable, and expensive system of multiple, overlapping layers of government, Bosnia continued to make progress in its democratization efforts in FY 2004. Corruption, bureaucratic inertia, and political infighting make for a democratic system that functions fitfully. A critical dilemma facing BiH is the cost of public administration. Poorly defined and overlapping responsibilities between layers of government, poor management practices, and intergovernmental revenue-sharing schemes that discourage longer-term planning and public investment all contribute to a bloated public sector that is ineffective in delivering services. A major effort undertaken with USG support in 2004 resulted in changes to the Constitution that allowed for the direct election of mayors throughout Bosnia in time for the October elections. Previously, municipal councils elected mayors , often leading to narrow party interests being placed above the public interest. Continued progress is necessary to instill democratic values and practices both in government and political party structures. U.S. assistance is coordinated with other donors, though in certain areas, such as civil society, USG funding is frequently more targeted. The EU (collectively and through individual members), OSCE, Council of Europe (CoE), and the World Bank provide assistance on various aspects of democratization. In preparation for the October 2004 municipal elections, USG assistance programs focused on reform of political parties and training in how to run issue-based campaigns. USG programs explained the appropriate role of a modern, democratic opposition, and provided techniques and methodologies for promoting issue-based politics through local party structures. A U.S.-funded parliamentary internship program gave university students and recent graduates a chance to participate in the democratic process by working in state or entity-level parliaments and enhancing the policy analysis capacities of legislatures. U.S. policy has focused on strengthening municipalities, with their direct ties to citizens, and reducing wasteful duplication of services at the cantonal and entity levels. USG assistance in FY 2004 enabled municipalities to open 10 One-Stop-Shop service centers and four Business Transaction Centers. The time required to provide citizen services or business permits decreased by 70 percent in many cases. To date, 26 municipalities have established USG-funded One-Stop Shops, substantially reducing the confusion and burden of dealing with local governments. With joint funding from the U.S. and Swedish Governments, the $20 million Governance Accountability Project (GAP) began in late FY 2004. Over the next three years, GAP will build additional One-Stop Shops and install financial management systems in about one-third of BiH municipalities. It will support the development of equitable sub-entity revenue sharing procedures for VAT revenue and work to modify the governance system in both entities in an effort to reduce overlap and increase efficiency and accountability. In FY 2004, USG assistance to civil society continued with an extensive institutional capacity-building program, as well as support to larger public campaigns that resulted in a number of needed policy changes at various levels of government. Through the Democracy Network project, more than 150 NGOs from both entities improved their capacities in the institutional and program strength areas. The project helped mobilize 35,000 citizens in 47 different advocacy campaigns implemented at the state, entity, cantonal, and municipal levels. Most of the campaigns achieved their goals. In 2004, the first USG-funded policy research grants were initiated to help build indigenous policy-making capacities in BiH. Democracy Commission funds provided small grants to NGOs for projects which strengthen local democracy, increase refugee return possibilities, and increase citizen participation and voter awareness. USG assistance supports civic education programs involving over 20,000 teachers and 200,000 students each year, nearly half of the teachers and students in the country. Special civics projects assist minority students, as well as students with disabilities and special needs. USG programs also support efforts to foster a multiethnic society in Bosnia by promoting dialogue and mutual understanding, including a democracy summer camp for more than 400 students and teachers from all parts of the country. The U.S. also funds youth outreach programs, including programs for the Muslim community, especially students. The unresolved disappearance of up to 30,000 persons presumed killed in the war continues to inhibit reconciliation and undermine efforts to establish a culture based on democracy and human rights. In FY 2004, the USG continued to fund efforts by the International Committee for Missing Persons (ICMP) to resolve missing persons cases. In media reform, the USG seeks to foster politically independent media that are professional and economically sustainable. The USG supports the production of local news and public affairs programs and socially relevant dramas. It is working to develop a legal, policy, and regulatory environment in BiH through assistance to a broadcast regulator, a print media self-regulation body, and various industry associations. In broadcast media, USG support to the Communications Regulatory Agency (CRA) enhanced its ability to function effectively, as it completed the transition from an international community-created and staffed body to a domestic, state-level institution. The USG worked to build effective journalist associations capable of protecting members’ rights and helped the BiH Press Council foster professionalism through self-regulation. At the same time, USG assistance to both print and electronic media resulted in an increased number of in-depth reports on issues like corruption, crime, elections, and education that resulted in more transparent government behavior. GDP growth is projected at 5 percent for 2004, up from an estimated 2.7 percent growth rate in 2003. The IMF estimates that inflation will remain low (less than 1 percent), thanks to Bosnia’s currency board arrangement, which ties the Convertible Mark (KM) to the Euro at a rate of about 2:1. Trade data are unavailable for 2004, but the current account deficit in 2003 was about 20 percent of GDP. Imports exceeded exports by more than three to one. The current account deficit was financed through a combination of assistance flows, remittances, and foreign direct investment (FDI). A 2003 survey by the BiH Central Bank estimated total FDI at $1.7 billion. In the long run, assistance flows are unsustainable, making it more important to promote economic growth by removing obstacles to investment. UNDP estimates that about 20 percent of the population lives below the poverty line. Poverty varies sharply by region and ethnic group and is most acute in the Republika Srpska (RS). The U.S. collaborates closely with other donors (including the EU and its member states) on economic and social sector reform projects. USG assistance initiated efforts to reform direct taxation by launching a new activity, organizing interested donors to cooperate on direct tax assistance and placing an observer on the Indirect Taxation Authority Board. To help modernize BiH’s tax administration, USG programs introduced a wireless communication system and a single taxpayer identification number. The USG helped streamline processes and train staff to operate this new system. As a result, tax collection increased in the Federation by 6 percent, the RS by 10 percent, and the state-level Government by 7 percent. Participation in this group has increased steadily, and other donors are now considering additional projects in this area, which will leverage U.S. assistance. The U.S. has led efforts to restructure BiH's extremely heavy domestic debt. In conjunction with local working groups, USG advisors assisted in the drafting of eight laws to accomplish this reform and to create a new government securities market. Five of those laws have already been approved by the relevant parliaments. USG programs also focus on training regulators and participants in the new government securities market. USG programs helped to expand the access of SMEs to financing by providing them direct technical assistance in completing loan applications. The programs also provide training to bank and micro-credit lending officers in the agricultural, wood, and tourism sectors on how to complete risk analyses. In less than one year, 27 companies received commercial bank loans valued at about $3.8 million. At the end of FY 2003, the USG signed agreements with three banks for 50 percent guarantees on the principal of loans offered to companies in the agribusiness, wood processing, and tourism sectors. In one year, the banks made 60 loans worth $10.7 million. These banks are extending longer-term loans, up to seven years, and have reduced their interest rates between 7 and 10 percent. In response to these market changes, other banks have increased their agricultural lending and are offering matching rates. The USG assisted in establishing a state-level Bankers Association of 22 banks, which presents a stronger voice to government on issues such as creating a single registry of accounts to combat corruption. U.S. technical assistance supports strengthening banking supervision and deposit insurance agencies to ensure that commercial banks are healthy and depositors protected from bank failures. The USG supported a state-level law on the registry of movable property that establishes a more secure, predictable environment for banks to lend to SMEs and individuals who wish to use movable property as collateral. USG assistance developed the software and provided the hardware for this system. Local staff will be trained to use it, and it will be turned over to the Ministry of Justice early in 2005. U.S. assistance is also supporting the merger of entity-level banking supervision agencies into the state-level Central Bank. Following entity-level success, the USG supported efforts to improve expenditure management at the cantonal level. All 10 cantons in the Federation installed a software system that rejects expenditures not approved in the budget. This transparent, auditable system has helped governments enhance their fiscal control, improved the quality of public sector financial information, and enabled government users to develop and achieve balanced budgets for the first time. The RS, where the system has been in place since 2002, was so pleased with these improvements that it paid to implement the system in several municipalities. USG help in the passage of the state-level framework Accounting and Auditing Law greatly boosted efforts to promote a single economic space in BiH. This law mandates the adoption of international accounting and auditing standards, establishes a single market for accounting and auditing professionals (a first for services in this country), eliminates the requirement that enterprise accountants be government-licensed, and brings BiH into alignment with EU practices. Weak rule of law in BiH remains one of the greatest concerns for investors doing business in BiH. In response, USG assistance is strengthening new commercial courts to adjudicate cases in a timely, predictable manner. USG programs provided both hands-on and classroom training on the new Bankruptcy Law to judges, banks, court staff, and trustees. This training will be institutionalized at existing Judicial Training Centers. After languishing for years with little progress, privatization speeded up in the Federation in FY 2004. USG assistance helped privatize four enterprises for which sale proceeds were $32.4 million, investments were $348 million, and 1,630 jobs were sustained or created. This achievement is all the more remarkable, since other donors have ceased privatization assistance due to a lack of progress and the World Bank’s privatization credit had to be rescheduled for an additional two-year term, as most of the credit was unused. Energy sector reform has made progress. USG technical assistance helped in the passage of State laws to establish a unified State transmission company and an independent system operator, as well as to set up the three regulatory bodies that will control electricity generation, transmission, and distribution. As a result, the World Bank disbursed a $30 million credit, and the EBRD released its loan of nearly €40 million. Progress also was made in the resynchronization of two UCTE (Union for Coordination of Transmission of Electricity) zones that were split in 1991. This will have a positive, Europe-wide impact, as it will physically integrate regional electricity markets in Southeast Europe into the EU internal electricity markets. Following the war, U.S. programs facilitated the return of ethnic minorities to their pre-war homes through the repair of water, electricity, schools, and transportation networks. The USG completed 289 infrastructure reconstruction projects that directly benefited 22,250 minority returnee families and 8,253 students. SEED-funded infrastructure work ceased in FY 2004, but USG programs continue to provide income-generation grants and loans promoting economic self-sufficiency in returnee areas. To date, the USG has assisted 2,399 minority families in income generation activities by providing 1,567 loans and 832 grants. Security, Regional Stability, and Law Enforcement Programs In FY 2004, Bosnia made great strides in institutionalizing its ability to fight crime, corruption, trafficking in persons, and terrorism. State-level Ministries of Defense and Security were set up, and the three BiH intelligence services were merged into one. However, state institutions responsible for these areas are largely under-funded and under-resourced. The lack of trained personnel is one problem. In FY 2004, the BiH State Court successfully prosecuted its first major trafficking-in-persons case (with assistance from U.S.-seconded prosecutors and judges). Authority for state-level judicial institutions has been handed over from international to local officials. Though they are capable, local judges and prosecutors still defer to internationals on politically sensitive and difficult cases, undermining their credibility. Public sector corruption is still endemic and a significant problem for Bosnian authorities. U.S. assistance programs are closely coordinated with other donors to eliminate redundancy and ensure the widest possible coverage of law enforcement support. The U.S. takes the lead incertain areas,such as law enforcement policy and procedures, as well as training, and supplements the larger EU programs where needed. The EU provides assistance via the EU Cards and European Union Police Mission (EUPM). Other donors include Canada, Sweden, OHR, OSCE, the World Bank, UNHCR, and the Council of Europe. To bolster Bosnia’s ability to fight organized crime and terrorism, the USG provided technical assistance to strengthen the State Border Service (SBS) and other state-level law enforcement and intelligence institutions. The U.S. also extended assistance to state and entity-level banking agencies in investigations of financial and terrorist-related criminal acts. USG assistance helped establish the State Investigative and Protection Agency (SIPA), an FBI-like agency responsible for investigating complex crimes, such as organized crime, war crimes, terrorism, money laundering, and trafficking in drugs and persons. USG assistance funded construction of a green border system (a network of sensors between manned border crossings), which significantly enhanced BiH’s ability to fight trafficking in persons and illegal migration. The U.S. also provides funding to help Bosnia develop an effective export control and enforcement system. USG technical assistance and support to state-level judicial institutions helped strengthen the judicial sector. A U.S.-funded data management information technology project will greatly enhance the ability of the courts and prosecutor’s office to track and manage cases. USG assistance to the High Judicial and Prosecutorial Councils (HJPC), which have ultimate authority for appointing and disciplining judges and prosecutors and court budgeting, facilitated the merger of the three HJPCs into a single, state-level judicial oversight body. USG-funded training has improved the ability of the BiH police and judiciary to investigate and prosecute complex crimes, including terrorism, money laundering, organized crime, and war crimes. BiH made significant progress in FY 2004 in combating trafficking in persons. USG-funded technical support and IT equipment for the BiH anti-trafficking Strike Force and the National Coordinator on Trafficking in Persons have enhanced BiH’s ability to investigate, prosecute, and develop effective strategies against trafficking. Through support to local NGOs and close coordination with the BiH government, the USG provided shelter and accommodation, psychological counseling, and health care to nearly 100 foreign trafficking victims found in BiH. The USG also funds a prevention campaign, closely coordinated with relevant elements of the BiH government, to raise awareness about the risks of being trafficked for sexual exploitation. The targets of this campaign are youth (ages 6 to 25), girls and women who have been trafficked in BiH, users of sexual services of trafficked girls and women, local authorities who work with young girls, and media professionals. Developing domestic capacity to try war criminals is key to helping Bosnia deal with its wartime past. In FY 2004, the legislative framework to establish a Special Chamber for War Crimes and a War Crimes Registry within the BiH State Court was passed. The U.S. funded a project manager to direct the project and pledged $10 million to assist in the Chamber’s start-up and the construction of a temporary detention facility. Corruption seriously erodes the functioning of Bosnia's political, public, and business life. Many USG programs in the areas of economic restructuring and democracy reform work to eliminate the structural underpinnings of corruption by improving systems and enhancing transparency. In FY 2004, the USG continued to support NGOs that educate citizens about the of corruption problem and advise them on the legal and institutional channels to report and combat public sector corruption. The USG also funded the secondment of four U.S. investigators to work in the Office of the High Representative’s (OHR) Anti-Crime and Corruption Unit, which tackles allegations of political crimes and corruption. USG assistance in the area of Bosnian defense reform is the sole foreign contribution of any size or import and has achieved signal success. The newly created state-level Ministry of Defense (MOD) has focused on achieving benchmarks for BiH’s entry into NATO’s Partnership for Peace (PfP). Except for political benchmarks involving the apprehension of Persons Indicted for War Crimes (PIFWCs), all technical defense reform measures should be achieved in FY 2005. The creation of an operational command and joint staff is ongoing. USG assistance has improved the MOD’s infrastructure, helped equip the Joint Staff and Operational Command, and provided training to improve the professional development of the BiH military. COUNTRY PERFORMANCE MEASURES ECONOMIC AND DEMOCRATIC REFORMS, 1991-2004
Data are drawn from EBRD, Transition Report (November 2004) & Freedom House, Nations in Transit 2004 & Freedom in the World 2004. Ratings are based on a 1 to 5 scale with 5 representing the most advanced. Latest year observation refers to 2004 economic reform data and 2003 democratic reform data; i.e., 2004 data for democratic reforms are not yet available.
World Bank, World Development Indicators 2004 (2004); UNICEF, Social Monitor 2004 (2004); EBRD, Transition Report (November 2004); and UNDP, Human Development Report (2004). MEASURES OF PROGRAM EFFECTIVENESS IN FY 2004DEMOCRATIC REFORM Performance Indicator: Citizen Participation in Political/Social Decision-making (Source: USAID NGO Sustainability Index Ranking) (1= highest, 7= lowest)
FY 2004 Results: In FY 2004, several larger public campaigns resulted in a number of needed policy changes at various levels of government. Over 35,000 citizens were mobilized in 47 different advocacy campaigns implemented at all levels of government, most of which were successful. The institutional capacity of NGOs was increased through USG assistance programs. Performance Indicator: Independent Media (Source: IREX Media Sustainability Index)
FY 2004 Results: Media outlets, particularly in the print media, remain strongly influenced by political parties. Most media outlets are limited in their reach to one or the other of Bosnia’s two entities. However, USG assistance encouraged an increased number of in-depth reports on crime, corruption, elections, and education that resulted in more transparent government behavior. ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL REFORM Performance Indicator: Fiscal Stability and Reformed Tax Regime
FY 2004 Results: The single treasury system was adopted, and the profits tax law is expected to move forward in early 2005. There has also been progress in revising corporate income tax legislation. Performance Indicator: Bosnia’s Internal Debt Crises Resolved
FY 2004 Results: Though progress on restructuring domestic debt was slower than anticipated due to the addition of IMF benchmarks requiring negotiation and re-drafting, more than half of the required state and entity laws needed to restructure the debt are now in place -- a major political and economic achievement. Performance Indicator: Meet NATO benchmarks for PfP Entry
FY 2004 Results: MOD has been established, and senior-level appointments have been made. Work continues to fill jobs at the mid and lower levels. Militaries have begun downsizing and are approaching desired staffing levels. However, the RS has made little progress in meeting the ICTY cooperation requirements, the largest remaining obstacle to PfP membership. Performance Indicator: War Crimes Chamber Development
FY 2004 Results: Thelegal and administrative infrastructure for the Domestic War Crimes Chamber has been completed. The Domestic War Crimes Chamber is expected to be operational by January 2005. A system to review "Rules of the Road" cases (approved by The Hague to be tried in Bosnia) in preparation for future prosecution is being developed in the BiH State Prosecutor’s Office. Performance Indicator: Judicial Reappointment Process for All Judges and Prosecutors
FY 2004 Results: FY 2004 accomplishments exceeded the target. BiH successfully screened and appointed candidates to all judicial and prosecutorial posts throughout the country. Additionally, BiH made significant progress toward standardizing court procedures. A state-level judicial body to manage judicial ethics and discipline was created. BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA
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