| U.S. Government Assistance to and Cooperative Activities with Eurasia -FY 2004 Released by the Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs January 2005 II. Country Assessments and Performance Measures - Tajikistan U.S. STRATEGIC INTERESTS Tajikistan is a frontline state in the Global War on Terrorism and efforts to combat narcotics trafficking. This becomes much more important with the Russian Border Force’s withdrawal from the Afghan border, expected to be complete in 2005. The Government of Tajikistan has begun to exhibit more pronounced authoritarian tendencies, but has nevertheless made some progress in fostering political pluralism and in implementing market reforms. With the Government backing away from prior commitments to reform, continued U.S. engagement with the Tajik people on these issues is essential to ensure that the gains of past reforms are preserved and that, to the extent possible, additional reforms can be pursued. Tajikistan has the potential to serve as a model for political and economic reform in Central Asia, unless it continues to backslide. For these reasons, U.S. Government (USG)-funded assistance programs are advancing U.S. national interests by strengthening democratic culture among Tajik citizens. The USG is also developing an environment that supports private-sector economic development, while building the Tajik Government’s capacity to secure the country’s borders and prevent the transit of narcotics, weapons of mass destruction (WMD), and suspected terrorists. The primary concern is to keep Tajikistan from becoming a narco-state, and our assistance to the security and law enforcement agencies reflects this need. However, our assistance in other areas is equally vital to help increase Tajikistan's stability and prosperity by promoting democratic and economic reforms that increase the people's trust in their country, and give them alternatives to engaging in drug trafficking.
OVERVIEW OF U.S. GOVERNMENT ASSISTANCE In FY 2004, the USG provided an estimated $80.11 million in assistance to Tajikistan (including $250,000 in FY 2003 FREEDOM Support Act funds):
In FY 2004, some 187 Tajik citizens traveled to the United States on USG-funded training and exchange programs implemented by USAID and the U.S. Departments of Agriculture, Commerce and State, bringing the cumulative number of Tajik participants trained in the United States to over 1,400. Additionally, through USAID training programs, in FY 2004, more than 2,500 additional Tajik citizens (forty percent of whom were women) were trained in the Central Asian region or in third countries. These training programs focused on strengthening civil society, microfinance, business education, reducing the spread of sexually-transmitted infections and malaria, raising health awareness among citizens, institutionalizing a co-payment health system, and supporting the introduction of evidence-based medicine. U.S. ASSISTANCE PRIORITIES Democratic Reform Programs: In FY 2004, the main priorities of USG democratic reform assistance included developing political parties, promoting improved access to information through independent media, enhancing local decision making through strengthened local government, fostering greater citizen participation through a new civics program in schools, promoting further development of civil society, expanding judicial reform and legal education, and preventing trafficking in persons. USG-funded exchange programs sought to familiarize Tajikistan’s emerging leaders with the day-to-day functioning of a democratic, market-based system, thereby helping to build a cadre of young professionals who can spearhead reform in the public and private sectors. Economic and Social-Sector Reform Programs: In FY 2004, USG economic reform programs sought to foster a legal and regulatory environment conducive to private investment and the growth of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). USG-funded activities are helping to modernize tax administration, strengthen banking supervision, draft or revise essential pieces of commercial legislation, and identify and help remove barriers to trade and investment. These policy-level initiatives are complemented by direct support to small businesses in the form of business advice and training, and financial support through credit and microfinance programs. The USG’s highest social-sector priority is addressing the intertwined factors aggravating the problems of drug abuse, HIV/AIDS, and tuberculosis (TB), while reorienting the country’s health services to provide better preventive and primary health care. These efforts gained support through Tajikistan’s successful application for funding from the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria (GFATM) to combat the spread of all three diseases in Tajikistan. USG assistance in education is aimed at improving the quality of basic education through in-service teacher and school principal training, distribution of teaching materials featuring modern methodology, promotion of parent and community involvement in education, and pilot activities in education finance. In the environment sector, the USG is assisting the Government of Tajikistan in the development of regional energy and water trading and exchanges with neighboring states through technical assistance to agencies responsible for developing a legal and regulatory framework for improved transboundary energy and water management. In the national water sector, the USG has initiated activities aimed at assisting the Government of Tajikistan develop a set of policies and practices that will improve the vital irrigation sector, on which over seventy-five percent of Tajikistan’s six million people rely on for their livelihood. Additionally, the USG is supporting newly-formed Water User Associations to improve management of local water systems through training and grants; plus assisting the Government of Tajikistan develop a legal framework which allows these NGOs to operate more effectively. In order to assist in the privatization of Tajik agriculture, a recently launched USG-funded activity will link farmers into new or existing markets by addressing constraints they face in the farm-to-market value chain. Security, Regional Stability and Law Enforcement Programs: In FY 2004, expanded USG security-related assistance programs fostered closer cooperation in addressing regional security concerns and enhanced Tajikistan’s capability to interdict the flow of narcotics through the country from neighboring Afghanistan. The USG continued to promote regional stability by helping Tajikistan to participate in Partnership for Peace and promoting interoperability to enable Tajikistani troops to serve in international peacekeeping operations. Increased assistance under Foreign Military Financing (FMF) and International Military Education and Training (IMET) programs promoted stability and interoperability. FMF funds improved capabilities for monitoring and patrolling borders and territory against terrorist cells and narco-traffickers, providing communications gear, uniforms, medical equipment, and night vision goggles. Tajikistan’s first five IMET students are completing English-language instruction in the United States prior to starting military training. In the law enforcement arena, the USG focused on strengthening Tajikistan’s institutional capacity to stop the trafficking of weapons and illicit narcotics across its borders, while also focusing increased attention on the problem of trafficking in persons. The Export Control and Related Border Security Program (EXBS) continued to train and equip border guards and customs officials so that they can better interdict trafficking in illegal goods. EXBS provided training, communications gear, uniforms, and patrol vehicles to the border guards. The USG embarked on a new outreach program to engage traditional religious leaders in the region. The goal of this initiative is twofold: to incorporate the viewpoints of religious leaders into USG programmatic decision making and activity implementation, thereby strengthening the effectiveness of USG assistance; and to raise awareness of and support for USG assistance at the community level. Additionally, the USG is addressing conflict mitigation by identifying vulnerable communities, working with them to build consensus around sources of tensions, and then tempering those sources through community infrastructure and social projects. SECTORAL ASSESSMENTS Democratic Reform The 1997 power-sharing peace accord established Tajikistan as the first country in Central Asia to have a multiparty government, and the inclusion of the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (IRPT) in the government made it the only Islamic-based political party in the region to function openly and legally. Nevertheless, Tajikistan remains an authoritarian regime with a poor human rights record. Political development is essentially at a standstill. The political parties in the country are essentially personality, rather than platform driven, and have very weak constituencies. There are a number of private media outlets in the country, both electronic and print, but restrictive laws and government harassment hamper them, and independent outlets lack the finances to be sustainable. While many non-governmental organizations (NGOs) are active in the country, very few are willing to advocate for issues deemed too political in nature, for fear of government harassment for "jeopardizing peace and stability." The June 2003 referendum, through which over 30 amendments to the constitution were approved, was a litmus test for political development in the country. The ability of the government to push through the referendum with little opposition did not bode well for the future development of a pluralist system or a peaceful transfer of power. The pluralist system received a partial push along with a mixed bag of election law reforms passed in June 2004. The law introduced some improvements, such as public posting of the protocols at the polling and counting stations and allowing the media to observe the process, but it did not meet all standards set out by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in the 1990 Copenhagen Document. Although the law has many shortcomings, many of them can be overcome by administrative rules from the Central Commission on Elections and Referenda, depending on political will from the top. In anticipation of parliamentary elections in early 2005, the USG continued to engage key partners on election reform in FY 2004. The USG co-sponsored a well-publicized roundtable discussion on election law reform to help bring openness and transparency to the law-writing process. This roundtable highlighted concerns of the international community with the draft law, and succeeded in realizing some changes. Despite the lackluster performance of NGOs and political parties, USG-supported local government, civic education, and media programs made significant progress in FY 2004. USG-funded experts continued to work with a presidential working group and the Parliament to pass local government legislation that will significantly modify the old Soviet-style centralized governance structure by providing for the direct election of village councils and chairmen. Efforts to strengthen city administration were enthusiastically received in two pilot municipalities in Khatlon Oblast last year, and expanded to seven this year. These initiatives will help professionalize city administration and prepare local authorities to manage the increased responsibilities arising from anticipated reforms to devolve from the national to the local level. The Ministry of Education adopted the civic education teacher training and textbook launched last year as a standard part of the Tajik curriculum. Opposition political parties see the use and acceptance of the course materials as an essential step in legitimizing their role in the political process, especially among the next generation of voters. The USG launched a follow-on civil society support program that will work through a nationwide network of civil society resource centers to provide training to NGOs, offer institutional grants to leading NGOs, advocate for a better legal environment for NGOs, and mobilize communities to solve local problems and advocate their interests to local governments. The U.S. Embassy provided Democracy Commission grants to help local NGOs promote greater public awareness of human rights and democracy. Many NGOs are still mistrusted by local governments and operate with few resources. Nonetheless, NGOs are becoming more involved in solving community problems, building social partnerships with the government and advocating for the needs of their constituents. USG-supported discussions through the International Center for Not-for-Profit Law (ICNL) resulted in a reduction of state registration fees from $150 to $25 for NGOs, public associations, and political parties. The reduction of previously high registration fees, which had significantly impeded the growth of NGOs, will have an immediate positive impact on NGO development, especially in the rural areas. Reporters without Borders rated Tajikistan higher on press freedom than the other Central Asian countries. However, many observers consider Tajikistan’s independent media as among the most fledgling in the region, and the country’s media laws remain very restrictive. Recently, the government once again refused to issue a license to a private radio station to expand its operations to include a television station. The authorities continue to harass and at times stifle independent media, going so far as to close down a printing house that printed several opposition and independent newspapers. There are, however, 14 independent local television stations scattered throughout the country, and a few independent papers that shy away from printing political materials. In 2004, these stations continued to broadcast two weekly USG-supported information programs: The Pulse of Life and Open Asia. Two government-controlled television stations in Dushanbe are now broadcasting these programs as well. Tajik State TV entered into an agreement with Voice of America to begin broadcasting "Window on the World." Economic and Social-Sector Reform Tajikistan’s economy grew at a reported 8.3 percent for the first ten months of 2004, the fifth year of strong economic growth. This performance reflects the Tajik Government’s reasonably sound fiscal and monetary policies, as well as its success in establishing security and political stability, both of which have allowed slow but steady progress on economic reforms. Economic prospects for individuals and families have also been buoyed by the increasing flow of cash remittances from Tajik citizens working abroad. Fundamental weaknesses remain, however, and Tajikistan’s continued failure to make the full transition to a market economy contributes to keeping most Tajiks living in poverty: an estimated sixty-four percent of the population still lives below the poverty line with thirty-six percent living in extreme poverty. A national nutritional survey conducted in 2003 found that 4.7 percent of children under the age of five suffered from acute malnutrition and 36.2 percent were affected by chronic malnutrition. The effect of poverty was also evident in declining school attendance, particularly by girls, which had dropped to 88.4 percent. A key USG challenge in FY 2005 will be redirecting and reenergizing the Tajik Government’s land reform effort. Besides leaving farmers without access to land, the badly-implemented state farm restructuring program has left poor farmers as tenants or underpaid employees of the unaltered state farms, resulting in worsened poverty and malnutrition rates in the southern province of Khatlon, where land reform is most urgently needed. While gaining access and secure rights to land may not, in and of itself, be sufficient to lift farmers out of poverty, it would be a significant step towards implementing the market-oriented reforms that are needed in order for the wheels of economic development to start turning more steadily. The USG has been working with the Ministry of Land Reclamation and Water Resources to improve its capacity to better manage water resources. Two key factors required to achieve this objective are the introduction of appropriate equipment and trained, capable staff. Pump stations serve a large portion, approximately forty percent (290,000 hectares), of Tajikistan’s irrigated area. However, over the past decade, the effectiveness of many pump stations declined significantly, resulting in decreased crop production. The additional water made available from this rehabilitation work will help to minimize under-irrigation and bring land back into production. This is a significant step toward increasing farm yields and production, thereby promoting economic growth of citizens who benefit from the associated agricultural production. The USG rehabilitated 12 large pump stations and 81 wells in the Asht Region, benefiting over 21,000 people. Overall, the lives of 93,000 people have been improved and more than 24,000 hectares have been brought into production. While Tajikistan’s leadership recognizes the need for fundamental reforms, the underfinanced and poorly staffed "line" ministries are ill prepared to develop or implement required policy changes. The country’s weak judicial system is similarly unprepared to cope with the demands of a market economy, and corruption is a pervasive problem that inhibits the growth of private businesses. Despite improved tax collection, all levels of government lack the resources needed to adequately finance public investments and services. Crumbling infrastructure, declining social services, and a largely subsistence (and somewhat criminalized) economy further limit the potential for economic growth. Some key reforms, such as state farm restructuring, have been poorly implemented, while others, such as banking and taxes, have only just begun. The impact of reform will therefore be slow, as new legal and regulatory regimes are developed and the modestly expanding economy allows only incremental increases in social-sector spending. USG activities are helping to modernize tax administration, strengthen banking supervision, and draft or revise commercial legislation. Work with the National Bank to bring supervisory standards closer to compliance with international norms is helping raise public confidence in the banking system, and will be critical to mobilizing domestic savings for investment. USG-funded technical experts helped the government draft a comprehensive microfinance law that was passed in April. Additional work was done to help the National Bank draft implementing regulations, which are currently under consideration by the government. The USG’s partnership with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development in the program that works with commercial banks to expand lending to small and micro enterprises is starting to have a real impact. The Government of Tajikistan continues to press forward on its commitment to adopt International Accounting Standards (IAS) by the end of 2005, essential to attracting foreign investment. A USG-developed training and certification program has now recognized 51 Certified Accounting Practitioners in 2004, bringing the cumulative total to 122, and has established IAS-based accounting curricula in 14 colleges and universities in the country. In addition, with assistance from USG-funded expertise in preparation for WTO accession, the Government of Tajikistan successfully held its first WTO Working Party meeting in Geneva in March 2004, with follow-up work well underway. The political will for health systems reform is strong in Tajikistan. Working in close collaboration with Tajikistan Ministry of Health, the USG last year created a Health Financing Working Group (HFWG), including key policymakers and relevant technical staff from the Ministries of Health, Finance, Economics and Trade, and Social Protection, as well as the Anti-Monopoly Agency, Oblast Health Departments, and the Dushanbe City Health Department. The HFWG produced the Strategy of Health Care Financing in the Republic of Tajikistan for the Period 2005-2015, which highlights major principles and approaches to achieving more effective, efficient health financing, such as new payment mechanisms and a shift toward primary health care services. The GOT approved a National Reproductive Health Strategic Plan, developed with USG technical assistance. Moreover, a strategic plan for contraceptive security was developed and reviewed by the government. USG technical assistance convinced the Ministry of Health (MOH) to adopt the cost-effective, primary health-oriented, high impact World Health Organization’s (WHO) Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) approach as official policy. HIV/AIDS remains a threat to Tajikistan’s fragile advances in health. During 2004, USG designed and awarded a new project to integrate the needed response to the epidemic into the primary health care system. The Central Asian Program on AIDS Control and Intervention Targeting Youth and High-Risk Groups (CAPACITY) will also provide targeted technical assistance to help Tajikistan implement its $10 million in HIV/AIDS grants from the GFATM. Since 2002, the USG has helped the Tajik Government implement the WHO approach to TB control known as DOTS, which now covers about 13 percent of the population. During 2004, USAID designed and launched a new regional TB control program to strengthen the quality of DOTS implementation, TB surveillance, laboratory quality, and rational drug management within the country’s reforming health care system. USAID began its Basic Education program in FY 2003, focusing upon the quality and efficiency of Tajikistan’s basic education system through teacher training in modern teaching methodologies, training for school administrators in best management practices, efforts to increase community participation in education, and pilot activities in improved education finance. The Ministry of Education (MOE), as well as the Teacher Training Institutes, is working in partnership with USG on achieving the program’s objectives. During 2004, USG invested substantial effort in the capacity of pilot schools in strategic regions of Tajikistan to serve as professional training and resource centers for surrounding schools. The pilot/cluster model USG employed will maximize the spread of interactive teaching methodologies and effective management practices while building ownership among schools for the process and its end results. Community involvement initiatives were well received by all stakeholders at the pilot sites, successfully promoting the school-community partnership. USG estimates that the number of children affected by improved teaching and management activities under the PEAKS Basic Education program is over 38,000 and will grow to about 50,000. USG is working closely with the World Bank (WB) and other donor agencies to maximize impact of the new State Program on Basic Education. A major collaboration effort is taking place with the WB in Kulob Region, where a local NGO will roll out USG-provided training in community involvement and capacity building to all schools in the area. Technical assistance provided by USG to build capacity will prepare schools to prioritize their needs and prepare proposals for WB small grants. The WB also will provide funds for school renovation and teaching materials in Kulob and other WB regions, most of which overlap with USG regions. Security, Regional Stability, and Law Enforcement Tajikistan supports the Global War on Terrorism and has fully supported U.S. security objectives in the region, granting blanket over flights to coalition aircraft in support of Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) and assisting with the refuel of aircraft with a "gas and go" operation. Tajikistan has also become a full member in Partnership for Peace. Since Tajikistan’s removal from the International Trafficking in Arms Regulation (ITAR) list in 2001, the country has actively participated in the International Military Education and Training (IMET), Expanded-IMET, and Foreign Military Financing (FMF) Programs, and the Regional Defense Counter-Terrorism Fellowship (RDCTF) Program – all of which are new programs that have expended a total of over $7 million over the last three years. Tajikistan’s Ministry of Defense recently started reorganizing a motorized rifle brigade into a light mountain brigade, started the development of a peacekeeping battalion and has completed a defense planning assessment conference to help develop a national military strategy and determine missions down to the brigade level. Tajikistan’s growing component of the IMET program sent ten officers to long-term IMET and or Counterterrorist Fellowship Program training; 15 more are expected during FY 2005. The National Guard (formerly the Presidential Guard) is restructuring into a military force and will be receiving both IMET and FMF funding for the first time as well as State Department anti-terrorist program support. The USG also sent over 50 Tajik officers and civilian officials to programs and conferences at the U.S. Defense Department’s Marshall Center in Germany. USG-funded security assistance programs have resulted in increasing political will and capability on the part of the Tajik Government to assist in the Global War on Terrorism and to move towards a Westernized, democratized model of military reform. In FY 2004, the State Department's Anti-Terrorism Assistance (ATA) Program held several courses for Tajik participants, including the ILEA-Budapest courses on "Role of Police in Combating Terrorism," where Tajiks took part alongside Kyrgyz, Kazakh, and Uzbek counterparts; "Major Crisis Management;" "Senior Crisis Management;" and "Consultation-Protective Operations Management," a regional event with participation of Uzbek, Kazakh, and Kyrgyz counterparts. Tajikistan signed the 1961 Nuclear Nonproliferation Test Ban Treaty in 1995 and the Chemical Weapons Convention in 1993. Although never a main repository for WMD during Soviet times, one Tajik plant refined and enriched uranium. In 2003, Tajikistan joined the International Science and Technology Center (ISTC), a multilateral institution through which the USG provides grants to former Soviet weapons scientists to allow them to pursue peaceful scientific research with commercial potential. In addition, the USG-funded Export Control and Related Border Security (EXBS) Assistance Program continued to provide training and equipment targeted at upgrading Tajikistan’s Border Guard and Customs Service. As a primary transit country for drugs produced in neighboring Afghanistan, Tajikistan has a growing problem of drug abuse. USG’s Drug Demand Reduction Program seeks to reduce the demand for illegal drugs among select populations by working with governmental and NGO counterparts and community-based organizations. The program’s Youth Power Centers in Khorog and Khojand provided 2,024 at-risk youth with drug demand reduction services, positive social support, and healthy alternatives to heroin/opiate use. Pre- and post-test scores among participants in related peer education sessions show improved knowledge and risk perception regarding drugs. This knowledge is the first step to sustaining positive behaviors such as refraining from drug use for non-users, or achieving such behavior change as reducing or ceasing drug use for at-risk youth who have already experimented. Sales through the Condom Social Marketing program increased from the prior year, with almost half a million condoms sold, with direct sales to high-risk groups increasing by more than eight times, to over 136,000 units. Although not a drug producing nation, Tajikistan is used as a transit country for illicit narcotics trafficking. Bordering Afghanistan, one of the world’s main sources of heroin, Tajikistan confiscated 6,776 kilograms of illegal narcotics in the first ten months of 2004, including 4,459 kilograms of heroin, 1,706 kilograms of opium, and 567 kilograms of cannabis. Tajikistan has made progress in developing border security measures, but it lacks the resources, equipment, and training, leaving its porous borders vulnerable to smugglers and traffickers. The USG provided equipment and training for the Border Guard, State Customs, and Drug Control Agency, helping to bolster enforcement capabilities. USG assistance continued to focus on criminal law reform. The USG worked closely with local NGOs and the International Organization for Migration (IOM) to move beyond merely amending the Criminal Code to drafting a complete law combating Trafficking in Persons. In response, a governmental Commission on Developing Amendments and Addenda to the Criminal Code – including representatives from the Advocacy Group created the year before – was created to prepare a draft law, which was passed by Parliament and signed by the President. Nevertheless, Tajikistan’s judicial infrastructure continued to be plagued by low salaries, insufficient training, and endemic corruption. In FY 2004, the USG provided training and educational seminars in areas such as trafficking in persons, judicial reform and ethics, defense advocacy, and investigative techniques. Recognizing the continuing potential for ethnic and regional tensions to escalate into conflict in Tajikistan, the USG is supporting community-based decision making councils to promote inter-communal dialogue and better local governance by identifying, prioritizing, and solving local problems in a participatory, inclusive, and transparent manner. These programs seek to identify sources of tension and support appropriate social and infrastructure interventions. More than 300 projects reaching 132 communities were completed in FY 2004. Project examples, many of which focused on youth, included the organization of a sports field located between three villages with different ethnic identities and a history of hostility; construction of a small primary school in a mountain village where children had attended an over-crowded school in a neighboring village, a situation that caused resentment among their parents; and building a water supply system in two communities that had clashed over access to water. With the implementation of the project almost complete, community members from the two villages have not only settled their differences but are working side-by-side to install and maintain these systems. Humanitarian Assistance In FY 2004, the U.S. Department of State continued to respond to Tajikistan’s continuing humanitarian needs through sizable shipments of privately-donated and U.S. Defense Department excess commodities, including critical medicines and medical supplies, medical equipment, clothing, food, and emergency shelter items. A total of $47 million in commodities were transported at a cost of $4 million to the USG. This assistance was closely coordinated with the Ministry of Health and local health care providers to ensure the broadest possible benefit to the population. In addition, USG’s Food for Peace Program provided $10 million in food aid commodities to the United Nations World Food Program (WFP) to support school feeding and distribution programs to other needy groups, including TB patients participating in USG’s TB-DOTS program. Complementing these direct-feeding assistance programs, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) donated a total of 14,000 metric tons of food commodities valued at roughly $8 million to be monetized, with proceeds going to support community development activities implemented by U.S. NGOs; the majority of the proceeds were used to support agricultural development and education programs. The U.S. Embassy has also contributed emergency flood relief money and has funded the installation of minefield warning signs to prevent innocent deaths by landmines. COUNTRY PERFORMANCE MEASURES In FY 2004, Tajikistan made only marginal progress in the area of democratic reform. The country’s human rights record remained poor. Though some considered Tajikistan to have the freest press in the region, media laws remained restrictive and the situation shows signs of deterioration as parliamentary elections approach. Sound fiscal and monetary policy helped boost economic growth, but fundamental weaknesses were pervasive in the country’s economy. Economic & Democratic Reforms, 1991-2004 Data are drawn from EBRD, Transition Report (November 2004) & Freedom House, Nations in Transit 2004 & Freedom in the World 2004. Ratings are based on a 1 to 5 scale with 5 representing the most advanced. Latest-year observation refers to 2004 economic reform data and 2003 democratic reform data; i.e., 2004 data for democratic reforms are not yet available. Tajikistan has begun to move to a market economy, but much needs to be done before the broader population can enjoy the benefits of the transition. The country is desperately poor, with a high incidence of malnutrition among children and a deteriorated health care system.
Economic Structure and Human Development, 1990-2004 World Bank, World Development Indicators 2004 (2004); UNICEF, Social Monitor 2004 (2004); EBRD, Transition Report (November 2004); and UNDP, Human Development Report (2004). SECTORAL PERFORMANCE MEASURES DEMOCRATIC REFORM Performance Indicator: USG NGO Sustainability Index (1 = highest, 7 = lowest)
(*This is not the final, official NGOSI score, but rather a performance measure tracked solely by the missions.) FY 2004 Results: The NGO environment contracted over the past year, due to consolidation of NGOs after a proliferation during 2002. NGOs and the government are struggling to determine what their respective roles will be. Frequently, district and city officials dutifully participated in social partnership conferences without understanding the nature and purpose of NGOs and the benefits the local governments can achieve through day-to-day cooperation. On the other hand, there have been numerous cases in which civil society organizations are organized by local officials simply in order to attract funds from international donors. According to the Ministry of Justice, there are 1,255 NGOs officially registered, of which only half are believed to be active. Despite fairly progressive NGO legislation, tax authorities, causing NGOs to draw away from government authorities, consistently harass local organizations. A weak economy and a lack of local philanthropy diminish the sustainability of local NGOs, leaving many of them dependent on international support. While there were efforts to influence government policy in some areas affecting NGOs, including taxation and registration, there have been no major advocacy campaigns over the past year. Performance Indicator: Independent Media, Drawing from Freedom House, Nations in Transit 2004 as modified by, "Monitoring Country Progress in Eastern Europe and Eurasia" USG/E&E/PO, #9 January 6, 2005. (1-lowest, 5-highest; data based on previous calendar year)
FY 2004 Results: Despite Tajikistan’s more favorable ranking (relative to the other Central Asian countries) for freedom of the press from Reporters Without Borders in 2004, Tajikistan’s independent media is among the most fledgling in the region. The Tajik Government refused to issue a license to an existing radio station to expand its operations to include a television station. As a result, there still remains no independent television station in Dushanbe. Nevertheless, with the help of USG assistance, 14 local independent television stations operate throughout the country. The situation worsened with the closure of a private printing house and subsequent tax problems for some of the more outspoken independent papers. ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL REFORM Performance Indicator: Economic Reform Index, Drawing from European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Transition Report 2004 as modified in, "Monitoring Country Progress in Eastern Europe and Eurasia" USG/E&E/PO, #9 January 6, 2005. (Data based on previous calendar year)
FY 2004 Results: The EBRD indicator demonstrates a positive trend in economic reform. The driving factors behind this are EBRD upgrades in the banking sector and in infrastructure. Over this period, banking supervision was strengthened, confidence improved, and deposits increased. These improvements will have a positive impact on the extent of intermediation in the sector. In the infrastructure area, the government changed pricing policies for electricity to allow pricing strategies to recover costs. Moreover, the government enacted an energy law to promote setting up the state-run electricity company as a corporation, establish an independent regulator, and improve the role of the Ministry of Energy. These developments are likely to improve the electricity sector’s efficiency and improve its financial sustainability in the medium term. Performance Indicator: Percent of New Smear Positive Pulmonary TB Cases Registered Successfully Treated through the DOTS Strategy.
FY 2003 Results: Improved surveillance of the incidence of TB has resulted in an increase in the number of new cases reported, a trend that is likely to continue over the medium term. While Tajikistan’s TB case notification rate is the lowest in Central Asia, this is due to a virtually non-existent reporting system. According to official data, the TB new-case notification rate increased by fifty-six percent, from 28.4 per 100,000 in 1995 to 64.1 in 2002. However, the World Health Organization estimates the TB case notification rates should have been approximately 114 in 2001. Due to improved diagnostics made possible by the USG assistance, the TB case notification rate increased more than two times from 64.1 (national level) to 150 (pilot sites) in June 2003. SECURITY, REGIONAL STABILITY AND LAW ENFORCEMENT Performance Indicator: U.S. State Department Global Trafficking in Persons Report ranking
FY 2004 Results: After a sluggish start and a Watch List ranking, Tajikistan made significant efforts to address its trafficking in persons (TIP) problems. In 2004, Tajikistan passed a comprehensive law against Trafficking in Persons and recently scored its first-ever TIP conviction using this new law. Much effort has been directed at prevention, and Tajikistan now distributes pamphlets with information and contact numbers at main transit points. Training programs for law enforcement officials, judges, and prosecutors are underway to deal more effectively with TIP issues. Performance Indicator: Tajik law enforcement agencies increase their share of total drug seizures (First 10 month figures)
CY 2004 Results: Two unexpected events significantly affected Tajikistan's drug-interdicting capabilities in 2004. First, in a surprise move based on sensitive political considerations, someone far less reputable replaced the upstanding Drug Control Agency head. Consequently, information sharing between agencies and international services diminished significantly and morale within the Drug Control Agency fell sharply. Fortunately, this man was removed from the position, and the previous director returned to the post. Secondly, the Russians and Tajiks abruptly announced that the Russians would be withdrawing from the Tajik-Afghan border beginning this year, forcing the Tajiks to quickly assemble the resources and manpower to take control of the 1,400 kilometer border. Law enforcement personnel are stretched thinly to take on the extra security and law enforcement duties and are understaffed and under equipped to capture smugglers. As the Tajiks adjust to their primary position in securing the border, post expects the seizure rate to again increase. TAJIKISTAN
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Area: approx. 88,900 sq. mi., slightly smaller than Wisconsin 
