| U.S. Government Assistance to and Cooperative Activities with Eurasia -FY 2004 Released by the Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs January 2005 Annex A: Assessments of Progress in Meeting the Standards of Section 498A of the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961
CRITERIA FOR U.S. ASSISTANCE UNDER SECTION 498A(a) OF THE FOREIGN ASSISTANCE ACT OF 1961 TAJIKISTAN Section 201 of the FREEDOM Support Act amended Section 498A of the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961 to require that the President "take into account not only relative need but also the extent to which that independent state is acting to:"
Section 498A(a)(1): "make significant progress toward, and is committed to the comprehensive implementation of, a democratic system based on principles of the rule of law, individual freedoms, and representative government determined by free and fair elections."
Tajikistan has expressed a commitment to the protection of individual freedoms, democracy, and the rule of law. An authoritarian government that has established some democratic institutions rules Tajikistan. While key elements of the central government continue to be directly or indirectly controlled by President Emomali Rahmonov, some politicians from opposition parties continued to hold seats in the parliament and positions in the Government, although they are increasingly sidelined. The Government and the former wartime opposition continued to cooperate on key issues.
A new law on parliamentary elections was adopted in June 2004, after unprecedented inter-party consultation and participation. While the new law makes some progress towards meeting Tajikistan’s international commitments, including allowing media access and posting protocols at polling stations, serious flaws remain in areas such as campaign funding and exclusion of independent domestic observers. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) has determined the law does not meet international standards. A joint mission of the UN and OSCE observed parliamentary elections in 2000 and noted that the elections, characterized by the open participation of six parties and a number of independent candidates, were an improvement over the limited choice offered to voters during presidential elections in November 1999. The joint observer mission concluded, however, that the elections failed to meet the minimum standards for equal, free, fair, transparent, and accountable elections. In particular, problems were noted with regard to the independence of election commissions, as well as the protection of the ballot boxes, conduct of the vote count and tabulation of results. State organs, particularly regional and local administration officials, interfered in the preparations for and conduct of the elections in a manner not foreseen by law and inconsistent with international standards for democratic elections. The June 2003 referendum on constitutional amendments was procedurally and substantively flawed. Widespread proxy voting and other polling irregularities were observed. Voters were only given one opportunity to say yea or nay to all 56 proposed amendments, including the amendment granting the president the possibility of two additional seven-year terms. Voter turnout was low, although reported officially to be very high.
It is noteworthy that Tajikistan has legally registered opposition parties, including a political party that is both overtly Islamic and committed to a secular state. However, the Government exercises undue control over opposition parties, and has refused to register some parties critical of the Government. At least one prospective independent candidate for the Lower House of Parliament was prevented from registering as a candidate for the elections to the Lower House in 2000, but several opposition parties were allowed to participate in parliamentary elections. One opposition party, the Islamic Renaissance Party, won two seats in the Lower House. President Rahmonov's People's Democratic Party of Tajikistan controls an overwhelming majority of seats in both houses of Parliament. The legislative branch remains subservient to the executive branch, although reforms are under way to encourage independence and transparency.
The Constitution provides for an independent judiciary; however, the judiciary remains subject to political pressure. Few judges receive formal training before being seated on the bench, but U.S. Government-funded NGO’s are conducting training programs for judges, prosecutors, defense advocates and sometimes even law enforcement officials regarding the rule of law and its effective implementation. The United States assisted the Council of Justice in developing and administering three written exams for incoming and sitting judges in 2000-2001 that helped weed out unprepared candidates. The exam was suspended following the 2001 exams, but the current Chairman of the Council of Justice has said examinations will be restored in 2005. Corruption is endemic in Tajikistan, eroding the rule of law and hindering economic and democratic reform.
Since 2001, Tajikistan has been free from the assassinations and outbreaks of violence perpetrated by unreformed opposition members that had plagued the country in previous years. Credible reports indicate that security forces sometimes tortured, beat, and abused detainees. There were similar allegations of occasional threats, extortion, looting, and abuse of civilians. The Government infrequently prosecutes security officials believed responsible for human rights abuses, and in other cases such officials were reprimanded and/or transferred to other areas. Freedom of assembly remains limited to registered groups. Tajikistan has eliminated registration fees for NGOs, leading to an extraordinary growth in the number of Tajik NGOs. However, the Government made it increasingly difficult for international democracy NGOs to function, creating administrative roadblocks in the way of registration and visas for international staff. The Government supports registered religious organizations.
The Government has made progress in reducing trafficking in women and children. Prosecutions for traffickers in persons have increased, but continued efforts are needed. The civil war (1992-1997) severely damaged Tajikistan's already weak economic infrastructure and caused a sharp decline in industrial and agricultural production. Since 1997, however, Tajikistan has experienced economic growth with the recovery of the agricultural sector.
Supported by the confluence of increasing domestic political and economic stability, favorable commodity prices, and buoyant conditions in neighboring countries, real GDP grew by 10% in 2004 and is expected to grow by 8.5% in 2005.Consumer price inflation fell sharply, to 5.5% in May 2004, and is expected to remain below the 7% target through the end of 2004. The traditional cotton and aluminum sectors, Tajikistan’s two largest exports, showed steady expansion, while services (mostly trade), non-aluminum manufacturing, and non-cotton agriculture accounted for almost two-thirds of GDP growth in the first ten months of 2004. Tajikistan is vulnerable to a fall in both commodity prices. For example, a 10% decline in both aluminum and cotton prices would directly increase the current account deficit by 2.4% of GDP and reduce budget revenue by 0.4% of GDP. Sustained growth has contributed to the decline in poverty since 1999, although it is still widespread with 57% of the population in 2003 living below the poverty line. Tajikistan's total external debt has declined from 82% of GDP at end-2002 to a projected 69% in 2004. In addition, Tajikistan recently agreed in principle on a $299 million debt-asset swap with Russia, dramatically further reducing Tajikistan’s external debt burden. Although not yet ratified, this agreement would significantly reduce the total debt-service ratio over the next three years from an average of 14.5% to 11% of exports. Although agricultural production was again good in 2004, the cumulative effects of two years of severe drought in 2000-2001 continue to be a problem. Land reform and restructuring of the cotton sector will be vital for Tajikistan's agricultural sector to grow. Uzbekistan's ability to effectively blockade its border with Tajikistan also has a severe impact on the Tajik economy, since almost all of Tajikistan's trade must transit Uzbekistan.
Improved fiscal discipline by the Government of Tajikistan has supported the return to positive economic growth. After deficit spending in 2001, the Government balanced the budget in 2002 and ran a surplus in 2003 equal to slightly less than 1% of GDP. The current account balance was strengthened by higher than projected remittances (the equivalent of 15% of GDP) and high cotton and aluminum prices. The external current account deficit narrowed to 1.3% of GDP in 2003 from 2.7% in 2002.
Progress on implementing Tajikistan's structural reform agenda has been significant since 1998, particularly with regard to the privatization of small-scale state-owned enterprises (SOEs). During the year, the Government announced its intent to fully adopt international accounting standards by FY 2004 and made significant efforts towards this goal. The potential for continued economic growth is based on strong economic growth in Russia and relatively high cotton and aluminum prices, along with some improvements in policy performance and the growing domestic private sector. Productivity increases are anticipated in the agricultural and light-manufacturing sectors from continued privatization of medium-sized and large SOEs and land reform, although progress with farm privatization is hindered by the debt of state-owned farms and concern over transparency and fairness of the process. The Government took measures in 2004 toward improving the foreign investment climate, lifting most foreign ownership restrictions, passing legislation increasing foreign investors’ legal protection, and creating a more favorable tax climate. Remedying the underlying severe administrative weaknesses will be a major contribution to improving governance.
The Government of Tajikistan has worked closely with its development partners, including the United States, to modernize its legal and regulatory framework to support its shift to a market economy. Restructuring of the banking sector and improved governance remain top priorities if Tajikistan is to create an improved environment for private-sector investment and growth. Tajikistan’s nascent banking system gathered strength in 2004—starting to overcome Tajiks’ mistrust of private banks—with sharp rises in personal savings accounts and bank transfers from abroad. There is limited confidence in the capacity of the courts and government agencies to implement and enforce rights and obligations created by new legislation and regulations. Tajikistan remained on the U.S. Special 301 "Watch List" for 2004 due to shortcomings in its IPR law and insufficient enforcement of its existing IPR laws.
Tajikistan remains a member in good standing with the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, Asian Development Bank and European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. An Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC) agreement entered into force in 1992. The 1993 bilateral trade agreement between Tajikistan and the United States provides reciprocal Normal Trade Relations benefits, subject to annual review, and contains intellectual property rights provisions. Tajikistan has been determined to be compliant with the freedom of emigration provisions of the Jackson-Vanik amendment (subject to a semi-annual reporting requirement on its continued compliance with these provisions). In May 2001, Tajikistan submitted a formal request for accession to the World Trade Organization and a working group was formed. It is working on its submission of a memorandum of Foreign Trade Regime.
Section 498A(a)(3): "respect internationally recognized human rights, including the rights of minorities and the rights to freedom of religion and emigration."
The Government’s human rights record overall remained poor. There were improvements in some areas; however serious problems remained.
According to the Constitution, Tajikistan is a secular state and law guarantees religious freedoms. However, the Government often construes secularism as anti-religiosity. Islam is the majority religion. In general, minority religions enjoy both government and individual tolerance with the exception of native Tajiks who convert from Islam and who experience occasional discrimination and harassment. There does not appear to be official discrimination against religious minorities, but religious communities must register and are monitored to ensure that they do not become overtly political. Unregistered, recently organized religious communities, however, such as Hare Krishna groups, function with no apparent restrictions.
The apparent goal of some Islamists to make Tajikistan an Islamic state remains a concern of the Government. President Rahmonov has aggressively defended secularism and occasionally criticized political Islam as a threat. In 2002-2003, northern regional officials closed several mosques and removed 15 imams from their posts. Leading Islamic figures within the former opposition who have joined the Government have downplayed the issue, saying that Tajikistan is not ready to become an Islamic state and that they are committed to peacefully resolving their differences in a secular nation-state. The Government specifically banned the activity of one extremist Islamist group, Hizb ut-Tahrir, which seeks to replace secular states with a borderless, theocratic, worldwide Caliphate. Hizb ut-Tahrir has developed a significant following among the increasingly politically alienated ethnic Uzbek population of northern Tajikistan. Many of its adherents have been detained and sentenced to lengthy prison sentences for possessing and distributing the group’s often virulently anti-government and anti-western literature that calls for the end of the secular state, but stops short of supporting violence.
Tajikistan has no law on emigration. Since 1997, Tajikistan has been found to meet the emigration requirements of the Jackson-Vanik amendment. In 2002, the Tajik Government removed the exit visa requirement for Tajik nationals who wish to travel abroad.
Section 498A(a)(4): "respect international law and obligations and adhere to the Helsinki Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe and the Charter of Paris, including the obligations to refrain from the threat or use of force and to settle disputes peacefully."
The Government of Tajikistan has made a public commitment to respect international legal obligations and OSCE commitments. In November 1999, Tajikistan joined other OSCE states in signing the Charter for European Security, which reaffirms full adherence to all existing OSCE documents. It has cooperated with the OSCE mission in Dushanbe on matters related to electoral law, human rights monitoring, and efforts that obtained a political settlement to the civil conflict. The OSCE mission in Tajikistan was expanded in 1995 to take on human rights monitoring functions previously carried out by the United Nations Human Rights Committee, which it does to this day. On October 31, 2002, the OSCE Permanent Council recognized that Tajikistan had substantially corrected the most serious legacies from its civil war. The Permanent Council therefore redesignated the Tajikistan mission as the OSCE Center in Dushanbe, and broadened the Center’s mandate to include programs to support civil society and democratic institution-building. The Government still has not established a formal human rights ombudsman as recommended by the OSCE, despite its statement in 1996 (before its civil war ended and its current government was established) that it would do so. The Government has, however, permitted human rights organizations to establish offices and freely operate in Tajikistan, and such organizations have proliferated in recent years.
Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic have almost completed demarcation of their common border, although contentious areas remain, especially enclaves and exclaves. The border dispute with China has been completely resolved. Minor clashes in late 1999 between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan did not escalate into anything more serious. Uzbek authorities periodically renew minefields along the still un-demarcated section of the border in response to raids by Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) units that Uzbekistan claimed operated out of Tajikistan. Roughly 100 civilians (approximately 12-15 per year) and unknown numbers of livestock have died because of the mines.
Fairly rare irredentist rhetoric – both in present-day Tajikistan and Uzbekistan – about the largely ethnic Tajik cities of Samarkand and Bukhara (located in present-day Uzbekistan) has not been taken seriously by either Government.
Tajikistan continues to work to form an independent national military, and increasingly receives assistance in this from the United States, France, India, and others. It has been largely successful in integrating former opposition fighters with government security forces – primarily the Ministry of Emergency Situations –but faces significant equipment and training shortages in maintaining its armed forces. As a result, it has neither the capacity nor any apparent intention to pursue aggressive actions against its neighbors. Tajikistan has been an active participant in regional dialogues and cooperative peacemaking efforts. The U.S. continued to promote regional stability by helping Tajikistan participate in the Partnership for Peace and begin training troops for future possible peacekeeping operations. Foreign Military Financing (FMF) and International Military Education and Training (IMET) programs began in 2003.
Section 498A(a)(5): "Cooperate in seeking peaceful resolution of ethnic and regional conflicts."
The Government of Tajikistan welcomed international efforts to seek a peaceful resolution of the 1992-1997 Tajik civil conflict. The three-year UN-mediated negotiating process of peace talks with the Tajik opposition led to the June 27, 1997, signing of comprehensive peace accords and the creation of a Commission on National Reconciliation chaired by then-opposition leader Abdullo Said Nuri. Implementation of some of the accords’ requirements (such as the 1999 constitutional referendum and presidential elections) were implemented but left much to be desired. However, following parliamentary elections in February 2000 in which six opposition parties participated, the United Nations Mission of Observers in Tajikistan (UNMOT) declared itself satisfied the process was sufficiently complete and declared its mission fulfilled in May. Abdullo Said Nuri declared his Commission on National Reconciliation to have fulfilled its mission as well and is now the chairman of the Islamic Renaissance Party in government.
The Tajik civil war was primarily a regional and clan-based power struggle, not a war between communists and Islamists as is often mistakenly proclaimed. Although the population is 25% ethnic Uzbek and Uzbeks fought on the side of the Government during the civil war, the ethnic question was not a significant aspect of the conflict. Rather, the war fostered sub-ethnic regional identities among Tajiks, because Tajiks from some regions discriminated against Tajiks from other regions.
Section 498A(a)(6): "implement responsible security policies, including -- (A) adhering to arms control obligations derived from agreements signed by the former Soviet Union; (B) reducing military forces and expenditures to a level consistent with legitimate defense requirements; (C) not proliferating nuclear, biological, or chemical weapons, their delivery systems, or related technologies; and (D) restraining conventional weapons transfers." Tajikistan has formally declared its willingness and intent to accept all of the relevant arms control obligations of the former Soviet Union. Tajikistan acceded to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) as a non-nuclear-weapon state on January 17, 1995, and supported indefinite extension of the Treaty at the NPT Review Conference in 1995. On July 7, 2003, the Government of Tajikistan signed an NPT safeguards agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency, which has been approved by the IAEA's executive board. Tajikistan also approved the Additional Protocol on June 12, 2002. Tajikistan became a member of the International Science and Technology Center (ISTC) based in Moscow in March 2003.
Since the late 1990s, Tajikistan has regularly submitted Confidence- and Security-Building Measures (CSBM) annual data declarations, including in December 2003 with data valid as of January 1, 2004. Tajikistan has accepted CSBM inspections in accordance with the OSCE Vienna Document 1994 and its successor Vienna Document 1999. Tajikistan's fledgling military forces do not represent an offensive threat to neighboring states. The Tajik Government has not engaged in the proliferation of nuclear, biological, or chemical weapons, their delivery systems, or related technology. The United States considers Tajikistan to be a party to the Intermediate and Shorter Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty as a successor state to the Soviet Union. Tajikistan was one of the first new independent states to become a State Party to the 1993 Chemical Weapons Convention in 1997 and there are no concerns about its behavior under this Convention. Tajikistan has yet to become a State Party to the 1972 Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production, and Stockpiling of Bacteriological (Biological) and Toxin Weapons and on Their Destruction (BWC). It subscribed to the Hague Code of Conduct Against Ballistic Missile Proliferation (HCOC) in 2002. Tajikistan has taken steps to establish a basic framework for export controls including adoption in 1997 of an export control law and has cooperated with the U. S. Government and other Governments to strengthen export controls. The border with Afghanistan remains porous.
Tajikistan is a coalition member of the global war on terrorism and has fully supported American security objectives in the region. In 2001, Tajikistan activated its membership in Partnership for Peace. Tajikistan held its first annual Bilateral Defense Consultations with the Department of Defense on U.S.-Tajikistan security cooperation in November 2004. Since Tajikistan’s removal from the International Trafficking and Arms List in 2001, the country has actively participated in IMET, E-IMET, the Foreign Military Financing (FMF) Program and the Regional Defense Counter Terrorism Fellowship (RDCTF) program – all new U.S-funded assistance programs that have expended over $7 million during the last three years. FMF and IMET assistance have provided professional western military education and assistance to promote reform of the Tajik forces. The Ministry of Defense has begun reorganizing one Motorized Rifle Brigade into a Light Mountain Brigade, and has started the formation of a peacekeeping battalion. It has also completed a Defense Planning Exchange conference to help develop a regional cooperation strategy tied to military doctrine and to determine missions down to the brigade level.
Section 498A(a)(7): "take constructive actions to protect the international environment, prevent significant trans-border pollution, and promote sustainable use of natural resources."
Shared upstream hydro facilities in the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan, vital to the region because they store water for downstream irrigation and provide power, have inadequate funding for operation and maintenance and have suffered deterioration since the breakup of the Soviet Union. Tajikistan's downstream neighbor, Uzbekistan, also cash-strapped, is unwilling to contribute to better upkeep of the existing facilities. However, Tajikistan is actively engaged in a search for solutions and participates in a number of initiatives focusing on environmental concerns, particularly those related to management of water resources. In August 2003, Tajikistan hosted the International Freshwater Forum, which called upon all countries to conserve and responsibly use their freshwater resources. Tajikistan has also been very active in the UN to promote awareness of freshwater issues, succeeding in passing a UN resolution declaring 2005-2015 the "Decade of Fresh Water." Tajik water officials are also fully participating with USAID training activities offered in the region and they work closely with the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (U.S. NOAA) snowmelt-forecasting project. The challenge ahead is to work with regional officials toward a mutually agreed-upon regional methodology for trans-boundary cooperation on managing of the region's water resources. Although Tajik officials have asked for assistance in this regard, the necessary policies, agreements, and institutions are not yet in place to ensure sustained upkeep or investment. Tajikistan participates in regional activities managed by the Regional Environmental Center (REC) in Almaty, Kazakhstan, for which the U.S. provided funding support in 2002. The REC provides a valuable service by promoting the role of civil society in domestic governance, fostering dialogue between government and non-government stakeholders, and building capacity among civil society organizations to achieve their goals. The REC has the continued support of both the United States and the European Union. The Government of Tajikistan does not grant sanctuary from prosecution to individuals or groups that have committed acts of international terrorism or otherwise support international terrorism. Although not condoned by the Government, Islamic extremist groups have operated out of Tajikistan in the past. Tajikistan was very strongly critical of the former Taliban in Afghanistan for harboring Usama bin Laden and long warned the international community of the threat the Taliban represented. It did not negotiate with the Taliban, and openly and uniformly opposes terrorism. After the attacks of September 11, 2001, Tajikistan immediately supported coalition forces in Operation Enduring Freedom, and has generously offered assistance without reservation. Tajikistan is a party to all twelve international counterterrorism conventions.
Section 498A(a)(9): "accept responsibility for paying an equitable portion of the indebtedness to United States firms incurred by the Soviet Union."
In October 1991, shortly before the Soviet Union dissolved, Russia and eleven other Soviet republics, including Tajikistan, signed a Memorandum of Understanding declaring themselves jointly and severally liable for the external debt of the Soviet Union. In December 1991, Russia and seven other republics, including Tajikistan, signed an agreement that assigned to each of the Newly Independent States a share of all the external assets and external debt of the former Soviet Union (FSU).
In 1992, Russia sought to replace the joint and several liability principles by seeking full liability for the external debt of the FSU in return for all the external assets of the FSU. In December 1993, Tajikistan signed a "double-zero option" agreement with Russia under which Russia agreed to assume Tajikistan's share of the external debt of the FSU in return for Tajikistan's share of the FSU's external assets.
Please see section 498A(a)(9) of the Russia assessment regarding indebtedness to the United States incurred by the former Soviet Union.
Section 498A(a)(10): "cooperate with the United States Government in uncovering all evidence regarding Americans listed as prisoners-of-war, or otherwise missing during American operations, who were detained in the former Soviet Union during the Cold War."
The U.S. effort to uncover evidence of American POWs and MIAs in the former Soviet Union is being conducted through the U.S. Russian Joint Commission on POWs/MIAs that was established in March 1992. The U.S. side of the Commission visited Tajikistan in September 1996. The visit was positive. Requests for information were broadcast on local television, but there is no indication that any American POWs are in Tajikistan.
Section 498A(a)(11): "terminate support for the communist regime in Cuba, including removal of troops, closing military and intelligence facilities, including military and intelligence facilities at Lourdes and Cienfuegos, and ceasing trade subsidies and economic, nuclear, and other assistance."
We have no evidence from which to conclude that the Government of Tajikistan is providing military, intelligence, economic, nuclear, or other assistance to the Government of Cuba. CHECKLIST FOR GROUNDS OF INELIGIBILITY UNDER SECTION 489A(b) OF THE FOREIGN ASSISTANCE ACT OF 1961
TAJIKISTAN Section 498A(b)(1): Has the President determined that the Government of Tajikistan has "engaged in a consistent pattern of gross violations of internationally recognized human rights or of international law?" No. The President has not made such a determination at this time. While there have been serious shortcomings in human rights observance in Tajikistan, the Government has undertaken efforts to address some of the problems. In some areas, especially political violence, there have been marked improvements in recent years. We will continue working to address these human rights problems not only through diplomatic efforts but also through our assistance programs.
Section 498A(b)(2): Has the President determined that the Government of Tajikistan "has failed to take constructive action to facilitate the effective implementation of applicable arms control obligations derived from agreements signed by the former Soviet Union"?
No. The President has not made such a determination.
Section 498A(b)(3): Has the President determined that, after October 24, 1992, the Government of Tajikistan "knowingly transferred to another country-- (A) missiles or missile technology inconsistent with the guidelines and parameters of the Missile Technology Control Regime; or (B) any material, equipment, or technology that would contribute significantly to the ability of such country to manufacture any weapon of mass destruction (including nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons) if the President determine (d) that the material, equipment, or technology was to be used by such country in the manufacture of such weapon"? No. The President has not made such a determination.
Section 498A(b)(4): Is the Government of Tajikistan "prohibited from receiving such assistance by section 101 or 102 of the Arms Export Control Act or sections 306 (a) (1) and 307 of the Chemical and Biological Weapons Control and Warfare Elimination Act of 1991"?
No.
Section 498A(b)(5): Has the President determined and certified to the appropriate congressional committees that the Government of Tajikistan "is providing assistance for, or engaging in non-market-based trade (as defined in Section 498B(k)(3)) with the Cuban Government? If so, has the President taken action to withhold assistance from Tajikistan under the Foreign Assistance Act within 30 days of such a determination, or has Congress enacted legislation disapproving the determination within that 30-day period"?
No. The President has not determined that the Government of Tajikistan is providing assistance for, or engaging in any non-market-based trade with, the Cuban Government. |
