The Significance of the Nicaraguan Elections for the United States and the Hemisphere

I am pleased to be with you today and to have the opportunity to speak before such a knowledgeable and diverse group of people who are concerned about Nicaragua's future. The conference focus on the media and Nicaragua's election process is especially timely and pertinent.

I welcome the chance to share with you what the United States Government has been doing to help ensure that all eligible Nicaraguans can vote for a new president and for a new National Assembly and that the vote occurs under transparent and smooth conditions.

Nicaraguans will go to the polls on Sunday, November 4, 2001, to elect the president and vice president, who will serve a 5-year term, as well as 90 deputies for the National Assembly and deputies for the Central American Parliament. The November 4 presidential ballot includes candidates from three parties: Daniel Ortega of the FSLN (Frente Sandinista de Liberación Nacional); Alberto Saborío of the Conservative Party and Enrique Bolaños of the Liberal Constitutionalist Party (PLC).

The polls show a tight race between Sandinista candidate Ortega and PLC candidate Bolaños. According to the CID-Gallup poll conducted during the first week of September 2001, if the election were to take place tomorrow, Ortega would have 49%, Bolaños 45%, and Saborío 6% of the vote, thus giving Ortega a win on the first round. A survey conducted by the Nicaraguan firm M&R between August 29 and September 3, and published on September 10, puts Ortega at 40.1%, Bolaños at 39.4%, Saborío at 2.8%, and 17.6% abstaining. The CID-Gallup poll also found that 77% of voters have confidence in international and domestic entities conducting elections observations, and consider their role to be very important. Among international entities, the Organization of American States (OAS) was the best known and most trusted.

Now, I would like to move on to the vital role of the media and I will start by noting that the embassy's Public Affairs Section has a tradition of working closely with Nicaraguan and foreign press in Nicaragua, and it has increased its activities and relations in advance of the upcoming elections. Freedom of the press has prospered in Nicaragua since the democratic election of 1990, as the proliferation of print and electronic media outlets there attests. The embassy's Public Affairs Section enjoys a solid working relationship with most media operations in Nicaragua, and continues to sponsor programs for the continued professional development of Nicaraguan journalists, in the interest of helping this very active fourth estate establish and adhere to worldwide standards of fair reporting and journalistic integrity. Certainly, the press in any democracy plays a critical role in keeping voters informed and aware of the issues at play in an election, and of the importance of voter participation.

Nicaraguan and international media have a critical role in the upcoming electoral process. One of the most insidious enemies of democratic institutions is voter apathy and lack of participation in elections. A second is ignorance of the electoral process -- when, where, and how to vote. A third is demagogy and pernicious rumor, which thrive in a vacuum of timely, reliable and impartial information. Through the media, the Nicaraguan people hopefully will learn about this process, including information about where they will vote, information which should be disseminated next week, and about the candidates' histories so that voters can make judgements about how they may govern in the future, and how it is likely to affect voters' interests and values. Finally, the media has a special role to play in ensuring that the population is not fooled by false rumors of fraud. Such false rumors are common during hotly contested elections in a polarized environment when suspicions run deep. The media must remember that the first alarming reports about fraud are almost always wrong, and the media must check and double check to confirm incendiary rumors or reports before spreading them, lest it create or exacerbate suspicions, tensions and violence. Nicaragua has had several consecutive clean elections, and we have no basis to suspect this upcoming one will be different. That said, there are serious deficiencies in preparations for the election. Politicization of the Supreme Electoral Council (CSE) by representatives of the Liberal and Sandinista parties has been a major weakness. Abuse of the CSE's quorum requirements earlier this year was merely the most blatant example of how partisan political considerations precluded timely decision-making and implementation of electoral preparations. Production of electoral materials such as the voter registry and election-official manuals has been tardy. Problems with the computer hardware, software, and fax systems for transmitting vote tallies were not addressed in a timely way. Delays in disbursement of Nicaraguan Government funds to the CSE may have precluded the registration of thousands of voters, and compounded the CSE's difficulties in addressing a host of other challenges.

We are also concerned about reports of tensions due to political polarization in some sectors of the country, and the potential for violence. The risk of turmoil and violence rises if there is fraud, delays in the tallying of votes, or delays in the announcement of results. It was a mistake to prohibit the public release of "quick counts" soon after the polls close, for they diffuse tensions caused by unfounded or premature claims of victory, or by uncertainty arising from the likelihood that the CSE will not be able to announce preliminary results until sunrise on November 5 due to the cumbersome tallying system. I hope the Nicaraguan authorities will reconsider this decision. The Nicaraguan people have a right to know results, even if they are only indicative or preliminary, as soon as they are available.

Despite the fact that the Nicaraguan people and international observers, including the U.S. Government, have serious concerns about preparations, the OAS mission in Nicaragua, which has long experience with electoral processes, believes that by November 4th the groundwork will be in place for smooth, transparent and legitimate elections.

Our embassy in Managua has the same perception, although both the OAS and our embassy agree much work remains between now and one month from now. If there is justified doubt about the credibility of the process and the legitimacy of the results, the next government will be questioned, leading to political instability and economic turmoil. We will look to the Supreme Electoral Council (CSE) and the major political parties as well as the watchful eyes of the OAS, NGO's, and the media, to ensure not only against fraud, but also against cynical manipulation of suspicions.

What do I mean by that? That's the case when a concerted effort is made to falsely impugn the tally of voting tables for the purpose of obstructing or delaying the results. The CSE should define narrowly the justification for impugning ballots or voting station (JRV) tallies to avoid the abuse of this legitimate tool against fraud.

The strengthening of democracy is the United States' first priority. Thus, the United States is supporting the Nicaraguan election process by allocating over $5.5 million to support local and international NGO's and to assist the Supreme Electoral Council (CSE). I would like to briefly identify the four ways that U.S. Government support is being distributed:

• First, we are providing resources to help the CSE register voters and distribute voter ID cards.

• Second, we are funding nonpartisan publicity and education to encourage voter turnout via media campaigns.

One example of our close relationship with the media is the U.S. Embassy's support for a media "Get Out and Vote" campaign throughout Nicaragua. The campaign features radio and television spots with influential and respected national and regional Nicaraguan leaders. Other activities include placing notices in public areas, including movie theaters, as well as ads in newspapers.

• Third, we are funding foreign and Nicaraguan election observers to monitor and report on voting throughout the country to ensure an honest and smooth election.

This includes funding for approximately 6,000 observers from Nicaraguan NGO's, such as Etica y Transparencia, a well regarded local organization, also active in observing the 1996 national and the 2000 municipal elections. International observers entities we fund include the Organization of American States (OAS), the Carter Center, the International Republican Institute (IRI), and the National Democratic Institute (NDI).

• Finally, we are providing technical cooperation and equipment to the CSE, including the training of CSE election monitors as well as the provision of a backup server, appropriate software, and transmission equipment.

Additional support for a "quick count" will be given to Etica y Transparencia. The "quick count" scheduled by Etica y Transparencia serves to ensure the integrity of the tallying process and reduces the risk of an institutional crisis in the Supreme Electoral Council if there is a delay in the official announcement of the results. The expected result is to achieve a "quick count" with less than a 1%margin of error within 3 hours after the official closing of the polls. Parenthetically I would add that the U.S. Government has also been assisting Nicaragua overcome the impact of natural disasters. In response to requests from the Nicaraguan Government after Hurricane Mitch, the U.S. has provided Nicaragua more than $100 million for reconstruction and development. Furthermore, in response to requests for assistance to address the devastating effects of the drought this year, we are providing over $9 million in food, seeds, fertilizer and tools to the most affected areas. U.S. food assistance will benefit almost 10% of Nicaragua's population (420,000 people).

U.S. EXPECTATIONS

Let me briefly highlight the U.S. Government's expectations for the next Nicaraguan administration.

• Most importantly and fundamentally, we expect the next government to demonstrate respect for all basic liberties, including freedom of speech, press, assembly, religion, and association. We expect it to abide by democratic principles and practices, and respect private property rights.
• We expect the next government to commit to good governance, including transparency and intolerance for corruption.
• We expect the next government to participate in the struggle against terrorism, narco-trafficking, and other forms of international organized crime.
• We expect the next government to support a favorable climate for free markets and investments, both national and foreign.
• Finally, we expect the next government to shun contact with states that abet terrorism or harbor terrorists.

The U.S. Government considers the upcoming elections very important, not only for Nicaragua but also for the neighborhood and the Western Hemisphere.

Nicaragua today looks far different than it did two decades ago. Most importantly, it is at peace with itself and with its neighbors; it is democratic; and fundamental liberties are respected. People need not fear confiscation of their property, violence or even death if they oppose the government. Other nations in the region do not fear Nicaragua's interference in their internal affairs. Moreover, part of the foundation for economic growth has been laid with the opening of the economy, the achievement of macro-economic stability and the creation of a favorable investment climate. Markets are working, shortages and long lines to buy basic staples are a distant memory. Nicaraguans at home and overseas have invested in their own country, secure in the belief that their rights will be respected. At the same time, the challenges facing Nicaragua are daunting. Conditions beyond Nicaragua's control -- including natural disasters such as the recent drought, the rise in oil prices, and the implosion of coffee prices, as well as the worldwide economic slowdown -- are affecting employment, standards of living, and investment decisions. The threat of international terrorism is now a global concern of the first order requiring a vigorous response, as is narco-trafficking. These threats and others demand greater border vigilance, as well as enhanced security measures and intelligence collection capabilities. Crime, corruption, and impunity must be combated with renewed determination, lest they weaken security as well as undermine democratic consolidation.

I would be dishonest if I did not acknowledge that the possibility of a Sandinista victory is disconcerting to the U.S. Government. We cannot forget the FSLN's history of trampling basic civil liberties and violating human rights.. We cannot forget the seizures of property without compensation of hundreds of American citizens and many more Nicaraguans. We cannot forget the suppression of free trade unions and of religious freedom. We cannot forget that Nicaragua became a haven for violent political extremists from the Middle East, Europe and Latin America. And we are reminded of this everyday by the continued presence of people in the FSLN leadership, including some who are very close to FSLN candidate Ortega, such as Tomas Borge, Lenin Cerna, and Alvaro Baltodano, who were perpetrators of many of those abominations. Given their history, why should we believe assurances that they have changed, since there have been few concrete actions to demonstrate it?

I will repeat: the U.S. has invested heavily to help Nicaragua conduct a smooth, fair, transparent and peaceful election. That is our investment in democracy. We have confidence the Nicaraguan people will reflect on the character and history of the candidates and will choose wisely.

Nicaragua is consolidating its democracy gradually. November 4 is another important milestone. With this in mind, I leave you with one last thought, and that is -- democracy and commitments to respect basic freedoms are a lifetime commitment, not a campaign promise or expediency. The Nicaraguan people know this better than most people because of their history of conflict and sacrifice, and I am confident they have a bright democratic future ahead.