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Foreign Relations,
1961-1963, Volume XVII, Near East, 1961-1962 Released by the Office of the Historian Documents 145-165 145. Memorandum From Secretary of State Rusk to President Kennedy/1/
Washington, November 26, 1961.
/1/Source: Department of State, Central Files, 886.411/11-2661. Confidential. Drafted by Crawford and Palmer on November 24 and cleared by Talbot, Cleveland, Strong, and Sisco.
SUBJECT Our proposed positions on the proposals which may be introduced by the Arabs and Israelis, respectively, are as follows:
U.N. Custodian of Former Refugee Properties in Israel: We are opposed to this proposal, which is impractical, has dangerous implications for the future of Israel, and is based upon erroneous legal assumptions. We will vote against the proposal if necessary. We do not believe the complicated legal issues involved can properly be resolved by a body such as the SPC or UNGA. Privately, we regard the ICJ as an appropriate institution to which such legally contentious issues can be referred, and would not oppose such referral if it is urged by others.
Israel-Sponsored Motion for Direct Arab-Israel Negotiations: Since there is not the slightest prospect of the Arabs agreeing to sit down with the Israelis, we think this proposal could offer no practical result in advancing the interests of the refugees or a solution of the problem. (We recognize, however, that its introduction later as a counter to equally unhelpful Arab proposals might serve our interests. This would be the case if, by opposing it as well as Arab proposals, we could enhance our posture as a non-partisan supporter of progress along realistic lines.) For the foregoing reasons, we propose to vote against the Israeli proposal if necessary.
PCC Reconstitution: The PCC is now made up of France, Turkey, and the United States, a composition with which the Israelis are satisfied and the Arabs suspicious. While ultimately some benefit might derive from the addition of a few responsible neutrals less open to accusations of pro-Israel bias, efforts at this session to reconstitute the PCC would not be helpful to that body's current initiative, and might raise the specter of application of the Soviet "troika" principle in a Near Eastern context. We have made this clear to all concerned but are prepared to re-examine our position should broad support for the proposal develop. However, we consider it unlikely to be pressed seriously by the Arabs.
Inquiry into Status of Arabs in Israel: Israel representatives have tentatively indicated Israel might welcome a United Nations inquiry into the situation of Israel's Arab population. A greater probability, in our view, is that Israel would counter such an Arab proposal, if made, by demanding a parallel investigation into the status of Jews in the Arab countries. Should this issue arise, we would decide our position in the light of the tactical situation then prevailing.
"Palestine Arab Delegation": As in previous years, our position remains that membership of any Palestinian group should be heard by the SPC as individuals only and not officially recognized as "The" delegation representing all Palestine Arabs. This helps preclude an "Algerianization" of the Palestine problem. Should a proposal that the SPC hear "The Palestine Arab Delegation", as such, be pressed to a vote, we would vote negatively. PARTICIPANTS The Foreign Minister apologized for taking time from the Secretary's busy schedule, but said that consultations seemed indicated on matters which Israel deemed vital. The Secretary replied that he was always happy to see the Foreign Minister.
Mrs. Meir stated that, in Israel's view, there were four major issues with respect to the General Assembly's current consideration of the Palestine refugee item. It was her understanding that the United States and Israel had identical positions on three of these issues; namely, those concerning "The Palestine Arab Delegation," the Arab property custodian proposal, and reconstitution of the Palestine Conciliation Commission. On the fourth issue, that of strategy and tactics in the Special Political Committee, there seemed to be differences of opinion.
The Foreign Minister described how the proposal calling for direct negotiations between Israel and its Arab neighbors was initiated. The idea stemmed from visits to Israel by several presidents of African countries. They had expressed concern about the lack of international understanding of Israel's position on the Palestine refugee question, and they had indicated a desire to do something about this situation. Recently Senator Humphrey had suggested that Israel put forward a positive proposal of its own, rather than merely to react negatively to Arab proposals. Even without any support from the United States, the "peace negotiations" draft resolution favored by Israel already had about 26 supporters. /2/The possible draft resolution called for direct negotiations between Israel and the Arab states. A similar draft resolution, sponsored by 14 nations, most of them from Africa, was defeated by the Special Political Committee of the U.N. General Assembly on December 19. (U.N. doc. A/SPC/L.80/Rev. 1 and Corr. 1) Additional documentation is in Department of State, Central File 321.1.
The Secretary remarked that if it were possible, he would prefer there be no debate this year on the Palestine refugee problem. There had been too much talk on this issue in the public forum. However, as usual, a debate appeared inevitable. We would be happy if this Assembly's consideration resulted in no resolution, for none was needed. Our position was motivated by a desire to insure adequate resources for the refugees and to move forward on this problem as much as possible. We considered the Johnson approach to be the best one in the circumstances.
Noting that "The Palestine Arab Delegation" had bitterly attacked Dr. Johnson's report, Mrs. Meir stated that her Delegation would not speak against the Johnson effort. Given the Arab attitude, there was no hope whatsoever for a moderate debate. Would it not be better to have something on the table from both sides? The Secretary wondered if the negotiations proposal favored by Israel would have any practical result. Mrs. Meir said that even if it were not voted on, or if voted on and defeated, it probably would not have been a fruitless exercise. She recalled that the Arabs and other elements in the General Assembly had been pounding away on the theme of negotiations to solve various disputes; for example, those between the Netherlands and Indonesia and between Austria and Italy. Israel was not requesting active U.S. support for the proposed resolution. It was asking that the United States Delegation to the United Nations be instructed to inform other delegations that the U.S. did not oppose the floating of the negotiations proposal, and, moreover, considered it to be of tactical utility.
The Secretary observed that our problem was not so much with the content of the Israeli proposal. However, there were two or three Arab proposals which the U.S. must oppose. Our opposition to these would result in considerable oratorical blood-letting. This sort of situation created problems in our relations with other states; such was the case last spring. The Secretary reiterated that currently our major effort was directed towards the continuation of the Johnson Mission.
Mrs. Meir said that even if the United States did not particularly want a resolution, the Arabs certainly would press for custodianship and probably other unacceptable proposals, so why should there not be on the table something constructive from the other side? She expressed willingness, if the United States so advised, to ask Israel's friends to defer tabling their resolution until after the Arab resolution was tabled. Mr. Cleveland noted that while the proposed Israeli resolution might have some value as an element of tactical balance, its value to the United States would lie in our not being for it. The Foreign Minister said that she would be pleased if, when asked about the negotiations proposal by such delegations as the Norwegian or Swedish, USUN indicated understanding of its tactical advantage. However, if the United States were to indicate a negative position on the proposal, the extremist Arab demands might win Assembly approval, for other delegations would conclude that the U.S. was no longer concerned about Israel's basic interests in the United Nations context. She stated that if such Arab proposals as custodianship or a radical overhaul of the PCC were endorsed by the Assembly, this would bring to an end all of Israel's attempts to cooperate with the PCC.
The Secretary remarked that he would not wish other delegations to draw the inference, from comments USUN might make regarding the Israeli proposal, that the United States might vote in favor of it. He stressed that it was much more important to insure that custodianship was not approved, and the United States would appraise the various tactical alternatives with this in mind. In response to the Secretary's inquiry, Mrs. Meir speculated that the custodianship proposal might be approved again by the SPC, but that two-thirds approval in Plenary was probably not as likely.
The Foreign Minister noted that something which Ambassador Plimpton had suggested earlier in the day in New York had worried her considerably. She said the Ambassador had proposed that Israel try to prove that property abandoned by Arab refugees and taken over by the state had, in fact, been condemned by the Israeli Government for "public use" in accordance with the 1947 Partition Resolution. Going back to the question of possible resolutions, the Secretary said there were two considerations. One was the matter of our attitude towards the introduction of resolutions on this item at this session, and the second was the matter of our position regarding such resolutions as might be introduced. Mrs. Meir held that the effect of a U.S. stance of disfavor vis-à-vis both the prospective Arab and Israeli proposals would be to weaken the tactical value of the Israeli proposal. Certainly U.S. opposition to custodianship was not going to deter the Arabs from introducing that proposition. The Secretary said that it appeared better to him for the United States to take the position that it did not like either the Arab or the Israeli proposals. Of course, we could not very well ask the Israelis to put in their resolution so that we could vote against something besides Arab proposals.
With further regard to the Johnson Mission, Mrs. Meir stated flatly that Israel believed nothing would come of this endeavor. The reason was simply that the Arabs would not cooperate in any constructive approach. The Arabs did not wish to have progress made on the refugee problem except in a manner that would harm Israel. Israel was continuing to go along with the Johnson approach only because the United States felt so strongly about it.
Ambassador Harman noted that in 1952 the United States supported a resolution calling for direct negotiations between the Arabs and Israel. The Secretary said that we must all try to keep our eye on the big problem; to keep trying to make tiny steps towards a solution. In this context we must try to keep as much fever as possible out of the UN consideration of the problem. If the United States were to oppose Arab proposals, and then vote in favor of an Israeli proposal, the fever would be augmented. On the face of it, he said, who could oppose a call for negotiations? Mrs. Meir asked how the U.S. could conceivably vote against such a proposal. The Secretary reiterated that inasmuch as we were opposing some things the Arabs want, it would needlessly add to the anger in this situation if we voted for an Israeli resolution. Mr. Talbot noted that the Israeli proposal might appear to be a logical challenge to the Arab position, but asked if it would serve to advance the problem. The Foreign Minister said that the Arabs had already secured too much support for the proposition that peace was a good thing except in the Near East. She speculated that even if Dr. Johnson were to secure from King Hussein, for instance, a promise to cooperate, the King would not dare publicly so to indicate. The Johnson approach and all of the other quiet efforts designed to achieve "underground understandings" would have no effect as long as the above ground realities of Arab politics remained as they were. The refugees were above ground, not underground, and the Arab leaders apparently feel they cannot politically afford to compromise on this issue.
Reverting again to Mrs. Meir's request, the Secretary emphasized that he was extremely reluctant to open the possibility of any misunderstanding by other delegations regarding our attitude towards any resolution that would render more difficult the job that had to be done after the debate. He noted that the very debate might torpedo the Johnson Mission. The Foreign Minister's request was not something to which an automatic answer should be given. The Secretary said that we would like to consider it overnight. PARTICIPANTS Following a discussion of the arrest of French officials and citizens in the U.A.R. (summarized Deptel 3158) Mr. Talbot indicated he would communicate this information to interested U.S. Government officials.
In a subsequent conversation the Ambassador admonished Mr. Barrow to endeavor to prevent anyone from creating the impression that the U.A.R. is unstable. He said that the U.S. Government could be sure that the present Government of the U.A.R. would be in existence for a long time to come, but even if it were not, the U.A.R. had been and would continue to be a country of utmost geopolitical importance. He therefore felt it was in the U.S.'s own best interests to take advantage of the opportunity being offered, irrespective of its attitude toward the present U.A.R. Government.
I. Background
As Embassy aware, we seized with unanswered request by UAR for consideration multi-year PL 480 sales agreement including wheat and other commodities. Multi-year program request from Israel also pending. Under present circumstances we believe UAR multi-year agreement, if undertaken, should precede any other in NE area. UAR's present efforts execute coordinated plan appear qualify it as possible candidate for multi-year sales arrangement under general criteria announced by U.S. In interest of stabilizing relations with UAR we should not turn down their request without having very sound, comprehensible reasons for doing so.
We recognize that in making long term commitment of this nature some short term bargaining power might be lost but consider that multi-year PL 480 arrangement could provide basis for greater confidence for conduct relations and reinforce existing favorable trends.
We had hoped development of stabilization program for UAR through consultation with IMF might provide appropriate setting for negotiation satisfactory PL 480 arrangement. It now appears unlikely that anything will develop this connection in near future.
Recent indications of willingness of UAR officials, including Vice President Boghdady (Embassy Despatch 220 November 1), II. Approach to Nasser
In introducing subject with Nasser, you may wish note with satisfaction improvement in US-UAR relations that has attended expanded economic cooperation of past three years and confirm our sympathy for UAR's sound economic development. You may recall that we were asked conclude single-year arrangement to meet UAR's urgent requirements for wheat and other commodities pending study of possibility of multi-year program and we agreed. You may wish point out that to date only limited number of longer term arrangements made, such as that with India in which significant contribution to India's third five-year plan and other essential economic considerations were identified. Establishment of Agency for International Development emphasizes and affirms our interest in using our available resources including food to support well designed and executed programs of economic development. You should stress we prepared in principle work out multi-year arrangement with UAR but have only most general understanding as to extent such major undertaking on our part, amounting perhaps to several hundred million dollars, would be justified on economic grounds. You would propose, therefore, that arrangements be made for technically qualified representatives of both governments explore matter in detail as basis for possible subsequent negotiation of multi-year arrangement. This connection you might wish indicate in general terms such relevant questions as (1) specific economic development projects to which Egyptian pound proceeds would be allocated, and (2) projections over next several years of foreign exchange shortfall occasioned by economic development spending. As necessary should be made clear that in proposing this review U.S. does not seek inject itself into or interfere with UAR policy and planning processes. Rather we seek identify what manner and what extent our food resources will support UAR's own development effort. May be useful mention that in other connections UAR officials have indicated interest in technical cooperation with respect planning and we of course desire be helpful as possible in this area. In conclusion you might indicate to Nasser that, if this procedure meets his approval, we would be prepared commence these exploratory discussions immediately.
If Nasser refers to need for other assistance or possibility of support through consortium, you may point out exploration of economic development problems as they relate to need for long term food programs would help clarify situation with respect other ways in which U.S. could assist UAR development program.
III. Framework of Proposed Discussions
In talking with other senior UARG officials you may wish point out additionally we envisage discussions which will develop rationale and demonstration of manner in which UAR's economic development planning will be facilitated by long term commitment in contrast possible availability of commodities under agreements which might be made from year to year. This connection detailed projections should be made of consumption and domestic production of commodities and foreign exchange deficits occasioned by development spending. Existing development plans should be reviewed from point of view of variety of factors of which following are intended as illustrative rather than inclusive: (a) Effect of plan on eventual capacity of UAR sustain consumption from own resources; (b) Appropriate allocation Egyptian pound proceeds to economic development projects; (c) Alternative and complementary sources non-inflationary Egyptian pound financing; and (d) Relative roles Food for Peace, including consideration of Title IV programs on ad hoc basis, and other external financing. FYI. We would not envisage extending discussion at this stage to detailed consideration role our project type development lending nor to possible advantages coordination Western assistance through consortium style approach. Developments bearing on UAR interest in consortium approach and readiness consider more extensive stabilization measures should however be reported. End FYI. Discussions would also develop information to support country team's recommendations for commodity composition including details relevant to necessary consultations with other suppliers.
Discussion of relationship multi-year program to broader objectives of mutual interest should also be considered, including support such long term assurances would lend to UAR efforts revise its foreign trade policies and reduce economic dependence on Soviet Bloc.
You should also caution UAR officials as appropriate that all PL 480 sales agreements, whether single or multi-year, subject to availability of commodities. Multi-year agreements also include provision for annual review, both amount of Title I commodities and usual marketing situation. Reviews would take into account U.S. stock position and changes in production, consumption, and stocks of other country.
Department should be kept informed by priority telegram as steps taken. Further guidance as to detailed information to be developed in discussions at either policy or technical level will be provided as requested. We plan concentrate substantive discussion and negotiation this subject in Cairo although will be desirable keep UAR Embassy in Washington generally informed of developments.
Rusk
Here, drafted as memo for President, is my case for a new initiative toward Nasser. As you'll see, I feel that now is the time to move, and suggest how.
Am sure Walt at least agrees, particularly in light of his latest chat with Kamel. Phil Talbot may still counsel waiting till January when we'll have a better idea of whether Nasser will still be Mr. Big. However, this is already December, so unless we get decision now we won't be ready then.
What I'm proposing is really little different from State's own thinking. The chief difference is one of style. I'd like to see us give Nasser the impression we're opening a new chapter, using as bait the very substantial aid we're probably going to give him anyway. Otherwise we'll tend to dole out this aid in little packages, without getting as much leverage from it as we might reasonably expect.
Bob K
Attachment
Attached are two State Department papers bearing on what your staff has regarded from the beginning as one of the major foreign policy problems confronting your Administration. The first is in response to NSAM #105 asking what policy we should pursue toward Egypt in the aftermath of the Syrian coup, However, the time may be ripe for a more positive initiative, aimed in the same direction State proposes and with the same objectives, but designed to optimize the impact on Nasser. The reasons would be as follows:
1. The "aid" requests mentioned above add up to a very substantial total, which if properly packaged and presented to Nasser should amply demonstrate that we really are seeking to open a new chapter in US-Egyptian relations. Why not use it in this manner?
2. Aside from one factor (see below), there has hardly been a better psychological moment for such an approach to Nasser. He is in a chastened mood after the Syrian debacle. This, plus serious domestic economic difficulties and some concern over his internal political position, is leading him to turn more inward, in an effort to revivify the Egyptian revolution. To help him do so would be quite in our interest. And Egypt's near bankruptcy, which has led to his new aid requests, creates a real opportunity.
3. Ambassador Kamel is trying as hard as he can to sell us on seizing it, and claims to have Nasser's backing. It is hard to separate out how much this is based on Kamel's own desire to promote a rapprochement, but his arguments are not to be ignored. Kamel's latest approach to Walt Rostow for planners and consortium aid is the most forthcoming yet.
4. Nasser himself seems to look on the new Administration as potentially more favorable toward him than the old. Your exchange of letters has been helpful, and US caution in the Syrian crisis has gained us credit.
5. Meanwhile Soviet/UAR relations are uneasy, with obvious divergencies over Syria and Iraq, creating an opportunity we can exploit. Nasser has already reoriented his policy to a significant extent: (a) he has put the Israeli issue on ice, at least for the moment; (b) he has apparently decided to rely primarily on the West for new development aid if he can; and (c) he has been shifting Egyptian cotton trade back toward Western markets after some unhappy experiences with the USSR. Moscow's veto of Kuwait's UN application is merely the latest indication of divergent Soviet and UAR aims. Both realize this, but Moscow is making new aid offers in an effort to keep Cairo from moving even farther away. Nasser will feel compelled to accept them if he has no other recourse.
On the other hand, Nasser's current domestic difficulties may make it premature to attempt a major approach to him now. Who knows, he may not survive. This may be the case, though most Arab specialists doubt that he's as shaky as all that. In any case, if Nasser disappeared, he would probably be succeeded by one or another of the new military elite who would be equally susceptible to a more forthcoming U.S. policy. I doubt that withholding greater support from Nasser because of the possibility he may fall is a very useful playing of the odds.
What could we accomplish? As State points out, the best we could achieve from a more forthcoming policy toward Nasser would be a strictly limited marriage of convenience; our interests run sharply athwart each other at too many points. At least in the early phases, moreover, we would be giving a lot more than we would get in return. Nor can we woo Nasser away from being a neutralist and nationalist (any more than Moscow could).
But what we might hope to achieve through a more professedly forthcoming policy is to create a vested interest on his part in better US/UAR relations, which would in itself inhibit him from taking actions which would upset it. Let us remember that Nasser could cause us a lot more trouble if he were actively hostile--in Libya, North Africa, Sudan, Syria, or on Suez transit and ME oil, to mention but a few instances. Thus perhaps our greatest gains would be negative; we would not get a great deal from Nasser, but at least we might restrain him from doing a lot of things we don't like. Finally, let's not forget we also share certain common interests with Nasser--he's as anxious as we are not to see undue Soviet penetration into the Middle East. A more satisfactory relationship would enable us to talk more frankly with him about where we agree as well as disagree.
This immediately brings up the Israeli problem. One cannot propose a new initiative toward Nasser without assessing its likely impact on Israel and its supporters in the US. The Israelis have said they would applaud rather than oppose an effort to turn Nasser's energies inward, but they are not unaware that any strengthening of the UAR may eventually be at their expense. However, any rapprochement which led to increased US influence over Nasser would give us more leverage to restrain him to some extent. Indeed, as part of any new policy initiative, we should make perfectly clear to Nasser our inability to support him against Israel; and, being on a more friendly basis with him, we would be better able to make such noises without generating a sharp reaction. The Arab-Israeli issue is one on which the UAR and US would simply have to agree to disagree.
Finally, what would this initiative cost us if it failed? It would not involve spending much more money on Egypt than I daresay we will spend in one way or another anyway (without getting full benefit from it). And if Nasser rejects our feelers, or if a rapprochement later became unstuck, it's hard to see how we would be much worse off than we were before. Would it precipitate Egypt any further into the arms of the Russians than if we had not tried at all?
1. Prompt feelers to Nasser entourage to find out whether UAR is really interested in closer relations (a logical response to Kamel's overtures). This could be done in such a way as to whet Egyptian appetite, while still committing us to nothing if response were unsatisfactory.
2. If these went well, next step could be a stop-over in Cairo by a senior US official known to have President's ear. If a new tone is our objective, it would be better to start ball rolling this way. Bobby Kennedy or Chester Bowles come to mind; indeed this might be a good assignment for Mr. Bowles (though we would have to reassure UAR beforehand that he still has your confidence). This gambit would raise the level of dialogue a notch further.
3. A visit by Nasser to US in early spring, at which time you and he could have a full tour d'horizon and jointly discuss the new relationship. Nasser would be greatly pleased by such an invitation.
4. If all had gone well, our next major initiative would be to promote a consortium for support of a major Egyptian development effort sparked by a US commitment to contribute a substantial sum.
In sum, I cannot help but feel that a series of moves along these lines over next few months might start things moving in the right direction. They are designed to capitalize on aid we will probably give anyway, and they could be cut off at any point if UAR response was unsuitable to us.
Recommendation. That you discuss these proposals with SecState, with an eye to possible NSC debate and decision on new policy line, or ask us [?] to press with Ball in Sec/State's absence. I believe it is timely to call to your attention and to that of other senior officers of the Department the situation that is developing in Iraq. In brief, prior to late June, 1961, there had been signs of a gradual orientation away from the Soviet Bloc, but since the time that Kuwait, which is claimed by Iraq, began to receive international recognition as a state following the new political and security arrangement between Britain and Kuwait on June 19, As a result of Iraqi action against IPC, we consider it possible the Department will be urged to retaliate against and place other pressures on Iraq. Likewise, as the Iraqi communists regain an important role in Iraq and appear to threaten Iraqi independence, there is likely to develop within the U.S. a strong feeling that we should intervene in Iraqi affairs. It would appear that Iraqi leadership intends to play a game of brinksmanship in its efforts to gain control of Kuwait and to obtain at least part ownership of IPC, utilizing Soviet support and frightening the West by permitting the resurgence of internal communism. That Iraq will use military force against Kuwait cannot be ruled out, although there would appear to be cogent reasons against doing so despite the richness of the prize.
From the Iraqi revolution on July 14, 1958 until the new British arrangement with Kuwait on June 19, 1961 the U.S. followed a policy of patience, tolerance, and scrupulous nonintervention toward Iraq. That policy paid dividends in the form of a gradual improvement in the atmosphere of U.S.-Iraqi relations and there appeared to be a prospect of even more fruitful relations including increased Iraqi importation of U.S. goods and services. However, following our declaration of open support for the independence of Kuwait and our approval of the U.K. military intervention in Kuwait, in both of which we had no suitable alternative, we were informed by the Iraqi Government that we had made a mistake and U.S.-Iraqi relations would suffer. The full ramification of Iraqi intentions is now becoming clear.
Short of direct military intervention, whether by U.S. forces alone or in conjunction with others or by Iraq's neighbors friendly to the West (Turkey, Iran, Jordan and Saudi Arabia), we lack effective means of achieving a reversal in Iraqi policy. While cessation of IPC production would not now appear likely, we believe that, if a decision were made to stop production, it would not necessarily create the desired effect and might well create even greater problems.
While it is clear that we must in due course openly object to the Iraqi move against IPC and must consider whether to endeavor to prevent Iraq from gaining from its unilateral breach of an important contractual obligation, we believe that we must exercise due caution in the manner and intensity of our official resistance to the Iraqi action. Further, we believe we must resist firmly all efforts to force us to undertake intervention of any type in the internal affairs of Iraq unless and until it is clear that the domestic communists stand to gain control of Iraq in absence of such intervention. In the present circumstances, for the U.S. and/or its friends to place severe pressure on Iraq or to intervene ineffectively in Iraq would only serve to increase the likelihood of a situation we do not want: a communist takeover.
We cannot guarantee that Prime Minister Qassim will not prove to be another Castro, though his past actions in reducing the Iraqi communists to relative impotence would justify the conclusion that he is an Iraqi and Arab nationalist and that he does not wish Iraq to fall under external control whether directly or indirectly. We believe, however, that he is capable of playing a serious game of brinksmanship with the Soviets and internal communists in pursuing his great nationalistic objectives. Our objective is to the best of our ability to avoid pushing Iraq further along its present path and to endeavor to persuade certain of our allies and friends to pursue a similar course. In so doing the Department will be obliged to resist pressures from both within and without the U.S. Government to make statements and undertake actions that would be detrimental to the achievement of our objective. That there is serious risk in this course may be a frequent charge. That there would be serious risk in doing otherwise is our considered opinion.
While Mike is not very sanguine over the prospects of getting anywhere with Nasser, he does not think the domestic political repercussions would be insuperable if we handle them properly. Timing and adequate preparation would be important.
(1) Mike feels strongly that any Nasser visit must be quiet, without undue fanfare. He recalled that the ceremony surrounding King Saud's visit (3) Another essential was that we must be able to point to some concrete accomplishment from the visit, in order to turn aside any Saud-type reaction. It would look like a domestic defeat for the President to have received a neutralist with a record of hostility without being able to demonstrate that we got something out of doing so. Mike felt very strongly about this, and I quite agree that we must be able to show that any new relationship with Nasser is a genuine "two-way street."
(4) Mike wanted advance notice of at least a week before the visit, preferably before it was announced, so that he could lay the necessary groundwork. He thought that if we provided him with a good case, he could soften the adverse impact of the visit through his excellent contacts with leaders of the Jewish community (e.g. the periodic conferences of presidents of major organizations).
(5) Like Dick Donahue, King Saud has recovered from his illness and is recuperating from two eye operations performed earlier this month with the hope of improving his eyesight considerably. While the doctors recommend that the King remain convalescent in the United States another two months after his release from the hospital on or about December 30, the King may wish to return to Saudi Arabia shortly thereafter.
The King has expressed appreciation for your message sent to him at Dhahran in early November when his illness became known and for the flowers you sent to his hospital room. However, he has become somewhat concerned that the United States Government has not paid more attention to him. Word has reached him through others that the speeches of the chief Saudi delegate to the United Nations, Ahmad Shuqairi, and the negative response the King made to your letter to him of June 25 With regard to the King's response to your letter of June 25, the King is said to have informed confidants last week that he did not draft the letter and did not read it carefully upon affixing his signature. The King appeared to be genuinely disturbed to learn that the letter had displeased you. We should add that Saudi Arabia supported us in the "important question" vote on Chinese representation in the United Nations.
We believe that the time is propitious for you to invite the King to Washington. Therefore, we propose:
(1) That you authorize me to designate an official of the Department personally to extend on your behalf an invitation to the King to visit Washington on a day in early January convenient to you.
(2) That you approve the enclosed suggested letter to King Saud (4) That in addition to a private meeting with the King in the forenoon for discussion of subjects of mutual interest, you give a luncheon for the King and his party at the White House. To deter possible early Arab decision unfavorable to Special Rep concept, action addressees requested approach host governments soonest along line suggested below and at highest level required assure effective impact:
1. USG sincerely hopes host governments share its feeling deep satisfaction at temperate atmosphere which prevailed throughout informal Arab-US discussions during recently-concluded GA session. US noted with keen interest Arabs abstained rather than voting against US resolution. US trusts this augurs well for cooperation towards realistic progress, and that Arabs will on reflection not take onus of stymying PCC initiative. Throughout GA session US del adhered firmly to posture of impartiality toward refugee proposals sponsored by others, concentrating instead on concept which we convinced offers best prospect of serving refugees and enhancing area stability. US concept ultimately secured GA approval.
2. PCC will have soon consider most appropriate steps for carrying out GA directives for implementation Para 11, Res. 194 (III). PCC will wish give most careful consideration to variety problems and alternatives including, of course, possible re-appointment PCC Special Representative. US continues believe opportunities offered for quiet diplomacy by latter concept should be explored to fullest as soon as possible.
3. It may, however, be several weeks before PCC can determine precise nature further action to be taken. Thus US will wish in due course discuss with govts concerned possible further PCC activities.
4. In interim USG sincerely hopes host govts may be able give careful consideration further cooperation with Special Rep and that in any case they will refrain from judgments or actions tending foreclose further useful efforts by Special Rep.
You may also draw on following as appropriate: Arabs and many other dels expressed full satisfaction with Johnson personally. However, he has not yet decided accept re-appointment. Arab decision withhold further cooperation would inevitably affect his ultimate decision. US does not regard present PCC membership as sacred but believes that extensive pressure for reconstitution might well require US own resignation, contrary perhaps wishes some Arab leaders who believe US can make useful contribution to amelioration existing Near East problems. Finally you might make your Arab contacts aware that should they scuttle present initiative, US could not be counted on continue energetically seek progress in implementation Para 11.
For Amman: You should seek ascertain definitively whether extreme views of Palestine Arabs on Jordanian del represent considered views HKJ. Only alternative I can see to this dreary prospect is for Kuwait to become genuine concern of other Arab states, and specifically of UAR.
Nasser's reported decision withdraw small UAR contingent following Soviet veto of Kuwaiti UN membership suggests that he may prefer avoid liabilities of further involvement in what is for him messy situation. He can be fairly sure that British will for present keep Kuwait out of Qassim's clutches but will himself be free to castigate them as "Imperialists" for doing so and it is essential in my opinion that Nasser and other Arab leaders be given real incentive to involve themselves in fate of Kuwait. Too much is at stake politically (future shape and coloration of Arab world), economically (combined oil resources of Iraq and Kuwait) and psychologically (another Western "intervention" for Moscow to make hay with) for US and UK to be deterred by handful of avaricious Bedouin Shaikhs. Nasser appears to be key to problem, and it is past time Ruler is told he must find Nasser's price and pay it if he does not want to accept Qassim's commission as Qaimmaqam. /3/An Iraqi decree asserting Iraq's claim to Kuwait, issued in late June 1961, appointed the current Sheikh of Kuwait as "Qaim-Maqam" of the district of Kuwait under the authority of Basra Province. (Memorandum from Blackiston to Strong, June 27; ibid., NEA/NE Files: Lot 63 D 33, Baghdad)
If I read Nasser rightly, more than a crass bribe will be necessary. His pride and prestige will also have to be engaged if he is to stay interested. A device designed to give him both protective responsibility and some measure of claim on funds for development will have to be found. Similarly Jordan will have to be given tangible inducement to maintain political, and particularly military, commitment to preserving Kuwait's independence. Whether such arrangements are best worked out in series of bilateral agreements or whether problem better approached in context of establishment Kuwaiti-financed area develop organization (from which Iraq too could benefit) is question obviously requiring careful study. Ruler of Kuwait must, however, be made to realize that nothing less than major and continuing fin contribution to develop other Arab states (particularly oil have-nots such as Jordan and UAR) will in long run save Kuwait from total absorption by one of its neighbors.
The West can no longer afford present policy of reliance on British military protection, which seems to be most attractive one to greedy, short-sighted Shaikhs. Under circumstances it behooves us to seize initiative while time (now very short) remains.
Jernegan
SUBJECT Intense British concern with their large stake in Kuwait and their apparent determination to pursue a policy of firm response to the slightest indication of aggressive Iraqi intentions, led them in the last few days to order an aircraft carrier and small vessels from Kenya to the Persian Gulf area. The British Air Transport Command has been placed in an alert status. By giving these moves plenty of publicity, the British have sought to exercise a deterrent effect on Prime Minister Qasim of Iraq. The intelligence items on which the British acted did not seem to us to indicate any real danger.
These British steps may well have had the desired effect in impressing the Iraqis. Other results, however, are not so helpful. Iraq has sent a letter of protest to the President of the United Nations Security Council describing the British moves as an "aggressive, imperialistic" exercise in "gunboat policy". Against these advantages and pressures Qasim must measure the strong possibility of a military defeat at British hands and possible open hostilities with the Arab League. Regarding the latter, Qasim may feel that "Arab will not fight Arab" and that there is little real determination behind the League's intention to defend Kuwait, particularly in view of the recent withdrawal of UAR troops there. Qasim must also be aware that he probably could not occupy Kuwait without seriously disrupting the entire structure of oil production, sales and royalty payments which make Kuwait a valuable prize. Qasim may be playing a cat and mouse game with the British, hoping to wear them (and the UK treasury) down by a series of scare gestures which will make it increasingly clear to the rest of the world and the Arabs in particular that Kuwait is, after all, only a British colony.
The British have indicated they will not further intensify at present their precautionary measures with regard to Kuwait.
I propose to discuss with the British Embassy here some of the considerations set out above and we have asked our Embassies in Kuwait and London to discover the extent to which the British are encouraging the Kuwaitis to maintain Arab League support. 1. British troop landings in Kuwait prior to an actual Iraqi attack. In view of the adverse political effects of British military moves, we are prepared to express to the British our views should we feel there is a sharp cleavage between our estimate of the imminence of an attack and theirs. Should there be, however, a preponderance of events indicating aggressive Iraqi moves are pending we should be prepared to act favorably on possible British requests of the type we received last summer, i.e., assistance in obtaining permission for overflights of Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia. We should be prepared to reaffirm publicly, if it would seem helpful, our acceptance of Kuwait as an independent, sovereign nation. While British determination to defend Kuwait must be clear at all times, we believe that a positive US affirmation of an intention to participate in this defense would be unnecessary and would probably strengthen Iraq's case for greater Soviet assistance and weaken Kuwait's posture as an independent Arab country. Thus we should refrain from public military gestures, such as the dispatch of naval vessels in support of the British position. Given substantial evidence of an Iraqi intention to attack, we should be prepared to support fully Security Council consideration of Iraq's aggressive position.
2. Actual hostilities between British and Arab League forces on one side and the Iraqis on the other. In this case we would, of course, identify ourselves publicly with the British and Arab League efforts to protect Kuwait's sovereignty. We should be prepared to consider British requests for logistic support, perhaps in supply of air transport or weapons. We have developed in planning talks in London some understanding as to the possibilities for limited US assistance in these circumstances. We should be prepared to make known to the Soviets our intention to support the British to the fullest extent but only if there should be unmistakable signs of major Soviet intervention on the side of Iraq.
Suggest we pass Baghdad 286 (attached) to President. 2. Kassim seems determined to push IPC to the wall. Both US and UK embassies believe IPC must continue production because to cease would have violent repercussions and might lead Kassim to grab Kuwait or throw himself into Russian arms.
3. Meanwhile Kassim keeps beating Kuwait drum. He is on to a good thing here, both as a diversion from his domestic failures and as an opportunistic gamble. If he can add Kuwait production (largest in ME) to that of IPC, he'll have stranglehold on ME oil. Sovs would have much to gain if Kassim took over Kuwait. So Soviet veto of Kuwait UN application and Kassim's subsequent release of Commies from jail make me suspect a deal. UK is obviously worried about a coup de main; Iraq might strike before Kuwait defense forces can be built up. Both place little reliance on present Arab League contingents (1100 Saudis, 900 Jordanians, 140 Sudanese). [1 paragraph (4-1/2 lines of source text) not declassified]
However, our tendency has been to sit back and regard IPC, Kuwait and even Iraq as UK baby. But we own 23.75% of IPC Walt and I here, and now Jernegan in Baghdad, have been plugging theme Kuwait's independence can only be assured if Ruler uses his fantastic oil revenues to buy support from other Arab leaders, particularly Nasser and Jordanians, perhaps through some Arab development scheme. Only in this way will he be able to create any vested Arab interest in preserving this anachronistic place.
Jernegan's blast may stir State out of its usual "wait and see" stance. Meanwhile, I've been urging on Phil Talbot and Walt some anticipatory planning. But an indication of Presidential interest would help to get things moving. How about the attached? In response to an inquiry from your office regarding the status of the Title I PL-480 cotton request from the United Arab Republic, I am able to report that it is under consideration among the agencies concerned. The Department believes it is politically important to respond favorably if at all possible. However, the Egyptian request comes at a time when a serious problem of availability has already arisen in connection with earlier requests for cotton from a number of countries, some of them heavily dependent for many years on United States assistance in securing cotton.
Because of heavy crop losses from the severe leaf worm infestation of its current cotton crop, the United Arab Republic has requested 350,000 bales of United States Upland cotton of 1 to 1-1/8 inch in length under Title I of PL-480 to meet a shortage of cotton needed for the production of mass-consumption textiles. The United Arab Republic would continue to export its long and extra-long staple cotton but has given assurances that it (1) would refrain from exporting its own medium staple during the current year (other than deliveries on sales made before the extent of the crop damage was understood) and (2) would not export yarn or textiles produced from the PL-480 cotton.
There is no question that the United Arab Republic's economy has suffered a severe loss from the leaf worm infestation. About 35% of the cotton crop was destroyed. Export prospects are down sharply and the loss in export earnings alone is expected to exceed $100 million. In addition, the availability of cotton varieties for local consumption is substantially reduced, posing the alternative of diverting more expensive longer staples from export markets, or causing consumption of textiles by the mass of the people to be reduced. The United Arab Republic's weak foreign exchange position does not permit it a third alternative of purchasing medium staple cotton from abroad.
Although the request is for 350,000 bales, we consider this excessive in relation to domestic needs and believe a much lower figure would be more appropriate; i.e. in the range of 50,000 to 100,000 bales. Anything much less than 100,000 bales might be politically unacceptable to the United Arab Republic, while a larger amount might stimulate export pressures. We would expect to include in any agreement with the United Arab Republic on PL-480 cotton appropriate limitations on exports of raw cotton and cotton yarns and textiles.
We have already informed the U.A.R. that the quantity of cotton presently available for Title I programming is entirely committed and that it has not been possible since mid-October to consider additional requests. We have urgent unfilled requirements involving a total of 376,500 bales for Korea, the Republic of China, Morocco, Ethiopia and Bolivia, where for the past several years we have been supplying cotton under Section 402 of the Mutual Security Act. Although the requests of these countries must receive first priority attention, there are also compelling foreign policy reasons for giving favorable consideration to the requests of such other countries as Viet Nam and India, as well as the United Arab Republic, provided normal Title I program criteria are met.
In view of the foregoing, the Department of State is pressing for a review of the over-all question of cotton availability from existing stocks for PL-480 programming during this fiscal year and has recently sent a letter to the Department of Agriculture (a copy of which is enclosed) It may also be of interest that the Department has just received a diplomatic note from the Peruvian Embassy objecting to the possible sale of PL-480 cotton to the United Arab Republic. The Peruvian Government's concern is that such a sale would enable the United Arab Republic to export larger quantities of cotton. Peru is sensitive about our PL-480 cotton sales in general but in the case of the United Arab Republic the sensitivity is sharpened by the fact that the two countries export similar types of cotton.
This status report brings out various factors and problems which must be considered in the United Arab Republic's request for Title I cotton, but we hope that, if Title I availability permits, a cotton program for the United Arab Republic can be developed which will be acceptable to all parties concerned.
M.L. Manfull /3/Hereditary Druze chieftain and Lebanese Minister of State for the Interior and Planning Services.
[less than 1 line of source text not declassified] I [less than 1 line of source text not declassified] opposed to taking any special defensive initiative in advance of any GOL inquiry or in advance of any press reports of USG and PPS associations. Such initiative is only likely to be interpreted as admission of guilt or cover-up for actual involvement in coup. Meanwhile my response to Takla's probing (Embtel 651)/4/ may have effect of forestalling GOL suspicions of USG.
/4/Meyer reported in telegram 651 from Beirut, January 6, that when Lebanese Foreign Minister Takla referred to recent developments in Lebanon, Meyer had assured him that the United States had no advance indications of the recent coup attempt and that the United States believed that the internal politics of Middle Eastern states and interstate relationships were matters for decision of the people of the area and that there was no change in the traditional U.S. disposition to be a friend of Lebanon. (Department of State, Central Files, 611.83A/1-662)
[1 paragraph (7-1/2 lines of source text) not declassified]
Meyer
In explanation of this proposed program I enclose the following:
1. Over-all rationale;
2. Explanatory memorandum on message from you to President Nasser and text of message on economic cooperation;
3. Memorandum seeking your good offices to secure the services of Dr. Edward Mason of Harvard University for a two-week exploratory economic mission to the United Arab Republic; and
4. Memorandum suggesting an invitation to President Nasser to visit this country.
I should be grateful for your consideration and, if you deem appropriate, approval of each of these individual steps.
Dean Rusk Background
The United Arab Republic's severe economic plight and its fear of over-involvement with the U.S.S.R. have led to initiatives to secure more comprehensive U.S. economic assistance. It is clear we have come to another crossroads in our relations with the Nasser regime, similar perhaps to those that confronted us on the arms question in 1955, on the High Aswan Dam in 1956 and on the initial request for wheat under PL-480 in 1958. Our purpose is again being tested and how we respond may set the pattern of our relations with the U.A.R. for a considerable time to come. Ironically, we are again in a situation where either a positive or a negative response is fraught with possible dangers. In proposing this program we are aware that the United Arab Republic's present political posture, its antagonism toward France and the United Kingdom, its seizures of private industry and other property, its attacks on other Arab leaders, its continued (but currently non-activist) hostility toward Israel and its dealings with the Soviet Bloc create an atmosphere which in the short-term inhibits the development of mutual confidence between us. It is not in our interest to condone these policies or to bail the U.A.R. out of the difficulties in which it finds itself. Our purposes are principally long-term.
In the light of our earlier experiences and to achieve our broad objectives in the Near East, and despite the unhappy policies currently pursued by the U.A.R, we believe a cautiously positive response is indicated. Thus, we have sought to devise a step-by-step plan of action, evaluating results achieved and the over-all atmosphere o |