MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT
 
INFORMATION

FROM: Henry Kissinger 
SUBJECT: Political Implication of Assassination of Somali President

We still lack detailed information on the murder of President Shermarke of Somali. But the intelligence yields the following points:

-- Despite tribal resentment toward the government's detente with Ethiopia and the rancor of the losers over a bitterly contested parliamentary election in March, the assassin -- a member of the Mobile Police Force -- appears to have been acting on his own.

-- An army (anti-detente) takeover in the near future is not likely. The possibility remains, however, that there will be some inter-tribal fighting if the assassin turns out to be from a major tribal group opposed to Shermarke on ethnic rather than political grounds.

-- The National Assembly will elect a new President within 30 days. All leading candidates are pro-Western, and would probably continue Somalia's ties with us as well as a conciliatory policy toward Ethiopia over the disputed border.

Prime Minister Egal, whom you saw last week, is now flying home from California. His return should have a general calming effect on the country.