80. Telegram 22877 From the Department of State to the Embassy in Ethiopia, February 7, 1973, 0010Z
Department of State 022877
7 FEB 073
0-0010Z FEB 73
ROUTINE ADDIS ABABA
ROUTINE BONN, LONDON, MOGADISCIO, MOSCOW, NAIROBI, PARIS, ROME, TEL AVIV, ASMARA,
RUSNAAA/USCINCEUR
SUBJ: IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S. POLICY OF SOMALI THREAT TO ETHIOPIA
REF: ADDIS 782; MOGADISCIO 1642 {NOTAL}
1. DEPT, DOD AND OTHER AGENCIES HAVE HAD OPPORTUNITY DURING AMB. ADAIR'S CONSULTATIONS TO DISCUSS AT LENGTH WITH HIM SUBSTANCE OF ADDIS REFTEL. GENERAL REACTIONS TO REFTEL'S ESTIMATES AND SUGGESTIONS ARE BRIEFLY TOUCHED UPON BELOW.
2. IN GENERAL, WE AGREE EMBASSY ASSESSMENT OF ETHIOPIAN ATTITUDE TOWARD SITUATION. WE BELIEVE RESURGENCE SOMALI IRREDENTISM IN OGADEN MORE LIKELY THAN DIRECT SOMALI AGGRESSION. DESPITE
INCREASED SOVIET SHIPMENTS OF ARMS TO SOMALIA, WE SHARE MOGADISCIO REFTEL {AND FRENCH} DOUBTS THAT SOVIETS WOULD ENCOURAGE SOMALIS TO TAKE ON ETHIOPIA. YOU MAY WISH TO REAFFIRM THIS TO ETHIOPIANS AND, IN VIEW OF GOOD RELATIONS IEG MAINTAINS WITH SOVIETS, TO SUGGEST THAT IF ETHIOPIANS ARE AS CONCERNED ABOUT ARMS SHIPMENTS AS THEY TELL US, IEG WOULD BE WELL ADVISED TO TAKE UP MATTER DIRECTLY WITH SOVIET {AS WELL AS SOMALI} GOVERNMENT. YOU MAY WISH REITERATE OUR VIEW THAT NOTWITHSTANDING SOMALI EQUIPMENT IMPROVEMENTS IN SOME CATEGORIES, IEG REMAIN QUALITATIVELY SUPERIOR. SOMALIS CONTINUE TO BE SERIOUSLY HAMPERED BY POOR LOGISTICS AND MAINTENANCE. WHEN COUPLED WITH IEG'S INTERIOR LINE ADVANTAGE, IEG STILL CAPABLE THWARTING POSSIBLE SOMALI ATTACK.
3. WHILE WE INTEND TO CONTINUE TO URGE ETHIOPIANS, KENYANS AND SOMALIS TO BE MODERATE AND TO MAINTAIN THEIR DIALOGUE, WE DO NOT WISH TO ASSUME ROLE OF PRINCIPAL KEEPER OF THE PEACE IN HORN
OF AFRICA. WE BELIEVE, RATHER, THAT SETTLEMENT OF DISPUTES THERE IS PRIMARILY RESPONSIBILITY OF THE AFRICAN PEOPLE, GOVERNMENTS AND INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS DIRECTLY AFFECTED.
4. ALL THIS IS NOT TO SAY WE INSENSITIVE TO ETHIOPIAN AND EMBASSY CONCERN ABOUT MAP LEVEL AND TO GROWING PRESSURES FOR HIGH LEVEL MEETING. UPON HIS RETURN TO ADDIS, AMBASSADOR WILL BE ABLE
DESCRIBE TO EMBASSY CURRENT WASHINGTON THINKING ON THESE AND OTHER SUBJECTS RAISED IN REFTEL. YY
The Office of Electronic Information, Bureau of Public Affairs, manages this site as a portal for information from the U.S. State Department. External links to other Internet sites should not be construed as an endorsement of the views or privacy policies contained therein.