BACKGROUND AND SUMMARY: EARLIER RGA REQUEST FOR 100,000 TONS GRANT WHEAT BASED ON JUNE CROP AND REQUIREMENTS ESTIMATES SHOWING DEFICIT 390,000 TONS AND IMPORT-DISTRIBUTION PROGRAM 350,000. MISSION FULLY SUPPORTED PROGRAM OF THIS MAGNITUDE AS A STARTER, WITH DISTRIBUTION THROUGH GOVERNMENT SALES CHANNELS, INDICATED NEED PROBABLY UNDERSTATED BUT EVEN SO UNLIKELY BE FULFILLED, RECOMMENDED TITLE I PROGRAM FOR THE 100,000 TONS IN INTEREST OF SPEED AND ANTICIPATED TITLE II SUB-MISSION SHORTLY (REF A). ON BASIS REVISED CROP ESTIMATES AT HARVEST TIME RGA NOW PROJECTS DEFICIT OF 538,000 TONS AND HAS INCREASED ITS REQUEST TO U.S. BY 150,000 TONS ON GRANT BASIS (REF B). RGA ALSO MAKING CONSIDERABLE EFFORT MOUNT FOOD-FOR-WORK PROGRAM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TAKE 50,000-70,000 TONS WHEAT, IS ARRANGING FOR QUOTE ADVANCE UNQUOTE OF WHEAT FROM NORMAL STOCKS TO START IMPLEMENTING PROGRAM IN FIVE PROVINCES IN NEXT FEW DAYS. MEANWHILE SUPPLY COMMITMENTS OTHER DONORS DISAPPOINTING. FROM ALL APPEARANCES A SERIOUS GAP OF AT LEAST 150,000 TONS REMAINS IF FURTHER SHARP PRICE INCREASES AND EXTENSIVE VILLAGE FAMINE CONDITIONS ARE TO BE AVOIDED THIS WINTER/SPRING.

MISSION RECOMMENDS TITLE II PROGRAM INCLUDING FREIGHT FOR 150,000 TONS OF WHICH 50,000-70,000 TONS ANTICIPATED REQUIREMENT FOR DIRECTLY ADMINISTERED RURAL DISTRIBUTION PROGRAM FOR WORK AND DIRECT RELIEF, REMAINDER FOR GOVERNMENT RATIONED, BELOW MARKET SALE.