Interview on CNN's American Morning with Paula Zahn

MS. ZAHN: Good to have you with us on American Morning. Welcome, sir.

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Good morning, Ms. Zahn.

MS. ZAHN: As you head to the region, what are your concerns about the likelihood of some sort of military confrontation between India and Pakistan?

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Well, I'm not a statistician. I don't think I'll care to give odds. But our whole effort is going to be to try to stop a military confrontation from happening and to bring down the tension, following on the efforts of President Bush and Secretary Powell over the past weeks.

MS. ZAHN: What are the options the US have to stop any kind of military confrontation?

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Well, the stopping of a military confrontation belongs to the two parties, India and Pakistan. But I think the United States, joined by our international parties, right now joined by President Putin in Almaty, is trying to do our best to bring reason and logic to bear on what is a very difficult situation.

MS. ZAHN: Here is what the President of Pakistan had to say to Tom Mintier over the weekend about the possibility of a conventional war turning into a nuclear war. Let's listen:

TAPE OF PRESIDENT MUSHARRAF: "I don't think either side is that irresponsible to go to that limit. I would even go to the extent of saying one shouldn't even be discussing these things because any sane individual cannot even think of going into this unconventional war, whatever the pressures."

MS. ZAHN: Even as we hear what President Musharraf had to say, clearly there are members of Congress who believe that nuclear war is a distinct possibility. Do you think President Musharraf is trying to downplay that possibility?

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Well, I think he is trying to downplay it, and I thank him for that. The problem is once the iron starts to be exchanged between the two sides, then reason and logic seem to go out the window. So the whole effort has to be to try to keep them from escalating right now. And I think those who say we shouldn't even think about a nuclear exchange are right in one way, but we have to have it in the back of our minds.

MS. ZAHN: Senator Shelby just back from the region, here is the concern he expressed on the air yesterday. Let's listen to that:

TAPE OF SENATOR SHELBY: "I think it's the most dangerous place in the world potentially, and I expressed that when I was in New Delhi to the Indian Prime Minister and also to the Pakistan President. I think they realize that. I hope it will not get to desperation, as Congressman Goss alluded. If it does, I'm afraid we'll have a nuclear exchange, the worst of all scenarios. It's an explosive, incendiary place like we've never seen."

MS. ZAHN: How would you characterize the volatility along that border of Kashmir now?

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Well, it's extraordinarily volatile, as Senator Shelby said, is exactly correct, but I would note that former CIA Director Bill Webster in his last testimony to Congress about twelve years ago stated that in his view Kashmir was the most dangerous situation in the world. Certainly nothing has happened in the last twelve years to change that diagnosis.

MS. ZAHN: There's a long piece in the Wall Street Journal talking about how limited the US is in its effort to try to bring these two countries back from the brink. And they say about the only military option the US would have if nuclear war were to potentially break out is the US using the so-called theater missile defenses. Can you share with our audience what that means, this morning?

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: There is the development in the United States military of theater missiles defense which would allow the shoot-down of short-range missiles. But I think to be sensible about the present situation, there is no activity other than diplomatic activity that can be brought to bear at this moment in a timely enough fashion to de-escalate this situation.

MS. ZAHN: So far, the leaders of Pakistan and India have made it quite clear they don't plan to meet directly with Mr. Putin. Do you plan to try to help broker a meeting between the leaders of those other three countries?

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Well, they are going to meet individually with Mr. Putin, as I understand it, and there is no scheduled trilateral meeting. I don't think we're at a situation right now where we're in the business of brokering a meeting. I think right now we're in the business on both sides trying to be reasonable and logical, to lower the temperature. We want to assess President Musharraf's stated position that he has stopped the infiltration, or there is no infiltration across the line of control. And in return, we'd like to get India to begin a de-escalatory step of some sort that can be visible to Pakistan.

MS. ZAHN: Is it possible to defuse the situation in Kashmir without the United States taking a side?

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: I guess it's theoretically possible, but it's difficult. The Simla Accord of 1972, both India and Pakistan determined that the question of Kashmir was a bilateral issue. And if it's to be solved, it will be solved bilaterally, but I think with the help and the assistance and the encouragement of the international community, first among them the United States, and also Great Britain.

MS. ZAHN: And as this all plays out, what are your chief concerns about the troops that remain at the border of Afghanistan and Pakistan? Will their status change?

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: That's a question more correctly directed to Mr. Rumsfeld. Secretary Powell, the President, and I are concerned about our citizens both in Pakistan and India. We have well over 60,000 American citizens in India and well over 8,000 in Pakistan, and that's our first priority.

MS. ZAHN: All right. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage. Thanks so much for the preview of your trip, and good luck to you.

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Thank you Ms. Zahn.