Interview With Takao Hishinuma of Yomiuri Shimbun

(3:00 p.m. EST)

MR. HISHINUMA: Thank you very much for sitting with me today.

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Delighted. The Secretary is away in Canada with the President.

MR. HISHINUMA: (Laughter.) Yeah, okay.

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: So I'm in charge. So let's have some fun.

(Laughter.)

MR. HISHINUMA: And I know your time is very busy.

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: No, I'm delighted to see you. Yomiuri Shimbun has been a great newspaper.

MR. HISHINUMA: Thank you very much.

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Is Watanabe's son still the chairman?

MR. HISHINUMA: Yes. Of course, yes. And, yes, I know your time is very limited and I have a lot of questions of you.

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Okay.

MR. HISHINUMA: And, first, I'd like to ask about the situation with Iraq.

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Yeah.

MR. HISHINUMA: And a group of Sunni in the Kurdish coalition has asked for a postponement of election January 30th. Are you still sure that elections will be held throughout Iraq as scheduled? And how do you view Japan's role in Iraq? The Dutch Government decision to withdraw its troops has increased some kind of concern in Japan about security structure in Samawa. Also, it is highly unlikely for Japanese Government to not approve extension for the Self-Defense Force. Are you at all concerned that Japan might be put in a difficult position politically (inaudible)?

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: First of all, regarding elections, it is our firm belief that elections will be held in all of Iraq. It will be difficult, but we and the United Nations Electoral Commission seem to agree that they will be held. And I noted that some of the people who -- some of the Kurds and the Sunni who said they wanted to not hold the elections have actually quieted down in recent days because they see the popular reaction was not good to that; people want to have elections.

Regarding Japan and Samawa, it's a source of great pride to all of the friends of Japan to see the terrific way the Jieitai has interacted with the people of Samawa and overwhelming popularity, and I think that the nation of Japan should be proud of these soldiers who are doing such a fine job of reconstruction for Japan.

Regarding the Hungarian decision -- or the Dutch decision rather, the Dutch decision is one the Dutch came to, and Japan will come to her own decision following her own constitutional processes. We'll just await the outcome of that.

MR. HISHINUMA: And Japanese Defense Agency Chief, Yoshinori Ono, indicated several days ago that the Self-Defense Force could be out of Iraq by December 2005. What is your thought on this?

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Well, certainly, Minister Ono has the right to say anything he believes, and I'm a U.S. official, I can't speak for Japan. These are decisions Japan would have to make. I would just note that thus far, Japan's participation in Iraq, $5 billion worth of assistance, hosting a donors conference, having Jieitai at Samawa, has been so fantastic and I think has won praise worldwide for a Japan which is taking part in the large endeavors of the modern world. But these are decisions Japan is going to have to make. I can't make them, particularly a year in advance.

MR. HISHINUMA: (Laughter.) I will try to move to U.S. force realignment and Japan.

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Yes.

MR. HISHINUMA: U.S. has already reached an agreement with South Korea about their defense force. After this phase, do you think that an U.S.-Japan agreement should follow not so far behind, I think? How soon can we expect to reach a new agreement on the realignment with U.S. force? And would it be possible to see an agreement within a year into the second term of Bush Administration?

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Well, first of all, the majority of this work resides in the Pentagon; however, I take a very close interest in it. And President Bush and Prime Minister Koizumi had an agreement that we should accelerate these talks, that we ought to try to reduce the burden to Japan where possible without doing any damage to our ability to engage in our Article 5 responsibilities towards Japan.

My understanding is that discussions recently held in the early part of November between our principals were quite good and I think we're back to a very positive place. We began in these discussions by determining where we wanted to go, how we wanted to see our relationship in the future, and now we'll fill in behind it to determine just what steps each of us has to take.

To some extent, Japan has your own ongoing decisions to make, your Boei Taiko. The NDPO is coming up. You had your recently published Araki Report, which was very interesting to many of us. So it looks like as we engage together, DPRI, Japan unilaterally has some decisions to make.

MR. HISHINUMA: Yeah, I see. And you mentioned (inaudible) future relations (inaudible). And I think many aspects have changed since the 1996 U.S.-Japan security declaration was reached. Do you believe that it should be updated in the proper context maybe?

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Well, certainly you're right to point out that when Mr. Hashimoto and Mr. Clinton made their declaration in Tokyo in 1996, the world was quite a different place, and since then we've all been involved in the global war on terrorism. We are seeing a North Korea which has been involved -- has fired missiles over Japan and many other things.

I think the decision to update it is one that should be considered by officials of the two sides, but I wouldn't want to commit myself to it because it was a pretty good document at the time. But you're quite correct. The world has changed a lot and we ought to look at it in that light and see if it needs to be revised.

MR. HISHINUMA: I see. And I would like to talk about the North Korea issue.

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Yes.

MR. HISHINUMA: And during the APEC meeting in Santiago, all countries participated in the six-party talks, some for the North Korea, agreed to restart the six-party talk process. Do you expect the talk to resume by the end of the year or, at latest, maybe after the start of the second Bush Administration? I think otherwise six-party talk will lose momentum. What do you think?

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Well, I don't think the North Koreans have yet come to the decision on what to do. Originally, I think they were trying to wait to see who would win, Mr. Kerry or Mr. Bush. They had a mistaken idea that if Kerry won, it would be easier for them. They were wrong. Now, I believe they're looking to see if a new Bush Administration may have softer people in it to see if they can get a better deal. It's a mistake. Tomorrow, I'll be hosting here in the Department Vice Foreign Minister Dai Bingguo of China. We'll be discussing all of these matters. Shortly thereafter, we'll have visitors in from Japan.

Our whole emphasis is to get talks started again, maybe sometime in December or certainly in January. But the answer to your question doesn't lie in Washington, it lies in Pyongyang. You have to ask them.

MR. HISHINUMA: And but what to come next for the United States should North Korea refuse to come back to the table?

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Well, the first thing we'd do is sit with all other four partners to determine the best course of action. We're not in a hurry. We have plenty of patience. We have no hostile intent towards North Korea and, at the same time, we've got plenty of patience, but we will take very seriously our responsibilities to -- our alliance responsibilities to the Republic of Korea, to our allies in Japan, including the administrative territories under Japan's control, should North Korea do anything.

MR. HISHINUMA: I see. But do you believe that the effectiveness of six-party framework will be put under scrutiny in the coming year should talk continue to be stalled or delayed?

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Well, if they continue to be delayed, some people will argue that we ought to try something new. My own view is that five countries with the highest equities -- Japan, U.S., South Korea, Russia and China -- are all of a mind that we need to have a denuclearized peninsula. That's the best way to face Pyongyang, I think, in a united front with some of our traditional friends and some who are not so friendly traditionally, so that North Korea can finally come to the conclusion that all want to see a denuclearized peninsula.

As I say, President Bush is not in a hurry.

MR. HISHINUMA: I see. And China and South Korea seem to expect that United States would exhibit more flexible policy toward North Korea. Is it possible for United States to conduct more flexibility such as joining energy assistance to North Korea in a symbolic manner?

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Well, not at the present time. Here is a North Korea that won't even sit down and have talks which she agreed to originally. So I think it would be a very bad policy to be having even symbolic good gestures toward a North Korea who is getting rewarded for bad behavior.

MR. HISHINUMA: Yeah.

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: It doesn't make sense to me.

MR. HISHINUMA: Okay. And we have an abduction issue.

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Yeah.

MR. HISHINUMA: And recently, discussion about economic sanctions is gradually intensifying in Japan because of North Korea's (inaudible) with the abduction issue. What are your thoughts on this type of discussions?

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: First of all, my entire thoughts and prayers are with the families and the relatives of those who have been abducted or are feared to have been abducted. Second of all, from my government's point of view, we missed no occasion to speak up on behalf of the families of the abductees. As you may know, recently, in Tokyo, I met with the Yokotas and several other family members because the fate of Megumi-san son seems to be something that all Japanese feel. It's beyond imagination that North Korea can't come forward with a straight story. She knows very well about this.

Now, the question of sanctions is very interesting. Sanctions are very good things to have on the books, but they're better in the threat than actually putting them into act, because once you put them into act then you have no more ammunition. So it's better to threaten and move forward slowly in sanctions than to actually impose them. But eventually, if North Korea can't find it in herself to tell the truth about the abductees, then we will see what the Government of Japan has to do. It makes it more difficult to be flexible if the North Koreans won't tell the truth -- or let me put it in a different way, won't open up fully.

MR. HISHINUMA: I see. And I'd like to ask about Taiwan Strait issue.

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Yes.

MR. HISHINUMA: Taiwan will have a crucial legislative election December 11th. If the ruling party wins, I think it is inevitable that in Taiwan independence will (inaudible) escalate. Are you ready to put more pressure on the President Chen Shui-bian not to take more aggressive policy?

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Well, we certainly have discussions with Taiwan about all matters and note that -- I think it was yesterday, it might have been this morning in Taiwan -- Chen Shui-bian came forward and made a pledge that he would not break his pledge about going forward with independence, that he would not try this. It was said this morning in Taipei. And so we take President Chen Shui-bian at his word.

Our position has been, and it's well known to our Taiwanese friends, that we are not in agreement with any unilateral motions that change the status quo. We oppose that. We've made that crystal clear to our friends in Taiwan.

MR. HISHINUMA: And, anyway, how -- you see China as a big factor in Asia.

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Yes.

MR. HISHINUMA: How do you view the (inaudible) with China? Japanese Government decided to name China as one of the uncertain factor in our National Defense Program Outline. How do you deal with growing superpower?

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Well, first of all, I think that Japan was simply stating a fact.

MR. HISHINUMA: Yes.

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: All of us hope that China, have wanted China to take a very positive place on the world stage. And it's inevitable that China takes a place on the world stage. We just don't know what kind. So I think it is an unknown factor. Now, the way Japan behaves towards China, the way the United States behaves toward China, can help bring about more positive --

MR. HISHINUMA: Yeah.

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: -- positive -- I think, a more positive China on the world stage. But I would take some exception with your comment about China being just a factor in Asia. My own view is China is a global factor, for a lot of reasons, if only for her energy needs and her raw material needs; she's sucking up the materials from all over the world. These are commodities which are finite -- so, at some point and time.

So China's rise is of interest to all of us. It is not yet a concern, but I think Japan did exactly the right thing by speaking the truth. It's an uncertain factor in the future of the region.

MR. HISHINUMA: Are you not worried about some tension between U.S. and China?

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Look, if I worried about tension between U.S. and China every time somebody squeaked, I'd never get any sleep. We started this Administration with people predicting that we were going into conflict with China because of the EP-3 aircraft. We managed that very well. Our Chinese friends say that we have the best relationship with China the United States has ever had.

So, look, it's something to be worked every day. You can't overlook China. It's a factor in all of our lives. But it's not something I worry about. I work at it, rather than worry. Worry is wasted effort. I work to try to make the relationship better.

MR. HISHINUMA: I would like to go back to the U.S.-Japan relationship.

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Sure.

MR. HISHINUMA: Before you became Deputy Secretary of State, you published Armitage Report --

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Yes.

MR. HISHINUMA: -- so-called Armitage Report. Do you feel that you were able to accomplish some or many of the goals you write in this report? How do you feel? Do you think that it will be possible to realize these goals in the future?

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: I am so proud of the U.S. and Japan efforts to act together. I think that we have accomplished the goals of the Armitage Report. I personally look forward to, at some point in time, having a second Armitage Report to make suggestions from an American point of view about what next the alliance might do. I'm very excited about what's been accomplished over four years.

MR. HISHINUMA: I see.

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: And if you look back to where we were in 2000 and where we are now, oh, so many things have changed. So many things.

MR. HISHINUMA: Maybe collective security issue is still there?

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: The collective security -- I described the collective security issue in my report as an impediment to alliance cooperation. Having said that, I also, in the report, spoke the truth, and that is that this is a decision that Japan has to make. America can't make this for Japan.

MR. HISHINUMA: So are you prepared to (inaudible) this report?

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: My hope would be to do one. I will not do it immediately, but over time, as I view the situation and talk with Japanese colleagues and friends, I would hope to have a second Armitage Report.

MR. HISHINUMA: What would be a key discussion?

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Pardon me?

MR. HISHINUMA: What would be a key discussion in this report?

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Well, I think the rise of China would have to clearly be one. Japan's participation on the global stage. It's well known that the United States supports a UN Security Council seat for Japan. There's no secret about this. We are very forthright about it. But it's obviously true that with that come responsibilities. So these are the kind of things that I'd like to put in the report.

MR. HISHINUMA: And Japan-U.S. relation has enjoyed so far golden age (inaudible) last few years, and I think we feel we owe to the leadership of the people like you and Ambassador Howard Baker. And what do U.S.-Japan relation looks like in the second term of the Bush Administration after you leave?

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: When we talk about a marriage in the United States, we have different anniversaries, and you have silver anniversaries, diamond anniversaries. You also have golden anniversaries. A golden anniversary is 50 years. Eh? So would you take the 50 years starting from the security treaty in 1960 or the 50 years starting from the 1996 Hashimoto-Clinton declaration or the 2000 Armitage Report?

I think the point I'm trying to make is we can have and stretch this golden age if we both work at it. People like myself, Jim Kelly, Secretary Powell -- we may be out of government temporarily, but we're not out for good. We'll work hard. The new ambassador who will be coming to Japan will work very hard. The President, President Bush, has a very strong view about Japan and he enjoys Japan very much and he enjoys the relationship. So I think all the ingredients are there for the continuation of this golden age.

MR. HISHINUMA: I see. So new ambassador will be Mr. Thomas Schieffer -- I mean Mr. -- posted now Australian (inaudible)?

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Yeah, I won't say yes or no, but that's a good -- that's a good tip you have, as a reporter.

MR. HISHINUMA: Thank you. And --

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Because, of course, the U.S. Congress has to act as well.

MR. HISHINUMA: Yes. And just a few days ago, the -- this is kind of (inaudible) with China issue, that leaders of 13 Southeast and the Northeast Asia states agreed to transport so-called ASEAN Plus Three into the East Asia Summit and to form the first committee in 2005. As far as I understand, most important (inaudible) for Asia (inaudible) for United States is APEC, I think. What is your response to this?

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: APEC, you say?

MR. HISHINUMA: Yeah, APEC (inaudible) most important for United States, I think.

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Well, I don't quite agree. APEC is very important because it's head of states. The ASEAN and the ARC meetings for the United States are very important. And please make note of the fact that Secretary Powell each year has gone and participated from beginning to end, because we find ASEAN and the ARC very important. ASEAN Plus Three we were less happy about because the United States is not one of Plus Three and that seemed -- we are a Pacific power, we want to be involved in the Pacific and the life of the Pacific, and we intend to be involved.

MR. HISHINUMA: Do you want to attend? You have the right to be (inaudible)?

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Well, no, I'm making a different point. We consider ourselves a Pacific power. We prefer to be part of the life of the region. We're going to try to be. Whether we attend this particular forum or not is a different question.

MR. HISHINUMA: I see. (Inaudible.)

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Sure.

MR. HISHINUMA: How about Iran?

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Iran?

MR. HISHINUMA: Yes. I think in the context of the U.S.-Japan relations, Iran's quite a crucial issue. I think now European nations have somehow succeeded in persuading Iran to drop its demands, but it seems to me United States hasn't been satisfied yet, and Japan has since rightly sided with European Union side. What do you think (inaudible)?

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Well, let me be clear about this. As Secretary Powell said the other day, we fully support the activities of the EU-3 and we were fully informed about what they were doing, number one.

Number two, you would be correct in that we are the most skeptical about Iran's intentions. We are quite skeptical. And I believe by the United States taking a hard, strong, principled position, this has allowed the EU-3 to make some progress and we now have a suspension of activities which Iran should not have been engaging in.

So we're skeptical of the ultimate intentions, but we support the EU-3. I have described it as sort of a good cop/bad cop.

MR. HISHINUMA: Okay. What will you do after you leave?

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Well, I'm going to go out with some of my colleagues and try to start my company again, probably in Rosslyn, Virginia, and I'll be around. I'm on good terms with the administration. The President has been very kind to me. I'll be around. Who knows where I'll be in two years?

MR. HISHINUMA: I see. Yeah.

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: And I'll look forward to seeing you when we're out as civilians. Be glad to talk to you.

MR. HISHINUMA: And may I (inaudible)?

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Sure.

MR. HISHINUMA: It's not really a direct question from Asia, but there are many reports, even in American newspaper, maybe second term of Bush Administration will be more unilateral because Secretary Powell and you will leave. What do you think of this new term?

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Well, I think that if you -- it's not even the second term yet and you've seen President Bush, who went and took part in the APEC summit, which is certainly multilateral. We're fully engaged with our Ambassador at the UN in multilateral activities on Sudan. The President today is in Canada. He is looking at doing some European multilateral events, the President is, in the early part of 2005.

So I think the fear -- those who fear unilateralism will be doomed to be disappointed.

MR. HISHINUMA: I see, okay. And I just want to make sure about Chinese issue, China issue.

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Yeah.

MR. HISHINUMA: Maybe I have to ask about the U.S. (inaudible) about East Asia. I think how do you feel when you become a under secretary four years ago --

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Deputy Secretary.

MR. HISHINUMA: Deputy Secretary. Do you think that Asia is becoming more peaceful (inaudible)?

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Well, it is becoming more complicated, more complicated because you have several different currents. You have the current of terrorism, particularly in Southeast Asia. You have the North Korean equation. You've got Burma, which is a very troubled place. Those are some of the troublesome problems.

The good side of this, you've got a Japan and a China which are trying to correct their relationship. We're enjoying at present a good relationship with China and Japan and with South Korea after some rocky start. So it's a mixed picture.

It's quite clear that China is involved in the life of all the countries in the region, and so is the United States. I think as long as that is a healthy, open, transparent cooperation, everything will be fine and the region will benefit. If, on the other hand, one side or the other takes the view that for one side to prosper another side must lose, then the zero sum game will be a failure and will cause more trouble to the region. We're going to dedicate ourselves to having no zero sum games; everybody prospers.

MR. HISHINUMA: For instance, the U.S.-Japan relations much more (inaudible) more important in this (inaudible)?

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: I've been involved in U.S.-Japan relations since 1967 when I first went to Japan, and I think I can say that every single year U.S.-Japan relations have gotten more important, not less. I'm not talking just about kindness of Japan and Japanese citizens in hosting U.S. forces. I'm talking about the full relationship -- the economic, political, cultural; the way we cooperate on many issues across the globe has become more important. I'm quite proud of it.

MR. HISHINUMA: Thank you very much.

2004/1299