Adherence to and Compliance With Arms Control, Nonproliferation, and Disarmament Agreements and CommitmentsBureau of Verification and ComplianceWashington, DC August 30, 2005  PDF version TABLE OF CONTENTS
V. Compliance by Successors To Treaties and Agreements Concluded Bilaterally with the Soviet Union
VI. Compliance of Other Nations (Including Successors to the Soviet Union) with Multilateral Agreements
Adherence to and Compliance with Arms Control, Nonproliferation, and Disarmament Agreements and Commitments This Noncompliance Report (NCR) is submitted pursuant to Section 403 of the Arms Control and Disarmament Act, as amended (22 U.S.C. 2593) which requires a Report by the President on Adherence to and Compliance with Arms Control, Nonproliferation, and Disarmament Agreements and Commitments. This Report – the August 2005 edition of this Congressionally-mandated report – reflects the importance the Administration and the U.S. Congress place upon compliance with arms control, nonproliferation, and disarmament agreements and commitments. Such agreements and commitments only serve the national security interests of the United States if they are fully complied with. Other states’ violations of such obligations can present grave threats to our security. For this reason, the United States places a very high priority upon verifying compliance with, and detecting violations of, such agreements and commitments – as well as upon ensuring that violators promptly return to compliance and that other would-be violators are deterred from breaking their own promises. The United States has had some success in helping bring noncompliant countries back into compliance with their agreements and commitments, and in demonstrating that their return to compliance leads to improved relations with the United States. However, other countries have presented significant compliance problems, which are detailed herein, and of which U.S. decision-makers need to be aware. Particularly in a post-9/11 world in which there exists a very real threat of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) being used as weapons of terror, it is vital that the international community take all steps necessary to end noncompliance with arms control, nonproliferation, and disarmament agreements and commitments and ensure that would-be future violators are deterred from taking such a provocative and dangerous course. The urgency of these tasks highlights the importance of the various initiatives President Bush has put forward to enhance compliance enforcement efforts, prevent WMD terrorism, and reduce proliferation risks. This Report contributes toward these goals by highlighting cases of noncompliance or of compliance concern so that policymakers can focus their attention upon returning violators to full compliance as rapidly as possible. Another key objective of this Report is to make it very clear that the United States takes compliance assessment very seriously, and applies only the highest standards of analytical rigor in making its compliance findings. This point is not always well understood, particularly among countries that themselves may apply less rigorous approaches, or which may even make "compliance" judgments simply on the basis of policy likes or dislikes. Now more than ever, it is important that everyone understand the effort, seriousness, and rigor that go into U.S. compliance assessments. The unprecedented clarity and detail provided in this Report are designed to set the global standard for such work. This Report provides an assessment of U.S. adherence to obligations undertaken in arms control, nonproliferation, and disarmament agreements as well as an assessment of the adherence of other nations to obligations undertaken in arms control, nonproliferation, and disarmament agreements or commitments, including the Missile Technology Control Regime, to which the United States is a participating state. Pursuant to Section 403(a)(6), this version of the Report identifies questions, to the maximum extent practicable, that exist with respect to compliance by other countries with their arms control, nonproliferation, and disarmament agreements and commitments. To fulfill this statutory requirement while at the same time safeguarding sensitive or special reporting, the unclassified version of the Report may contain less detailed information about U.S. compliance assessments and findings’ judgments. As a result, this version of the Report presents a relatively brief account of findings and the unclassified information that underlies them. In setting out the United States’ findings in this version of the Report, we wish to emphasize that the findings are based on all available information, including information that may only be discussed in classified versions of the Report. Although the Report primarily reflects activities that occurred from January 1, 2002, through January 1, 2004, every effort has been made to include significant developments that have occurred more recently. Unless otherwise noted, compliance issues that first came to light after that period will be addressed in the NCR due to Congress on April 15, 2006. The United States has long recognized the importance of reaching the most rigorous judgments possible as to whether parties to arms control, nonproliferation, and disarmament agreements or commitments are complying with the obligations or commitments they have made. This Report represents the most recent in a series of Noncompliance Reports issued to alert policymakers, Congress, and – with the unclassified version of the Noncompliance Report – the public, to questions of arms control, nonproliferation, and disarmament noncompliance. All governments that give their word in this vital area should be held to it, and the United States is committed not only to holding others to a high standard of compliance but also to adhering to such a high standard itself. The Report, in turn, addresses U.S. compliance, compliance by Russia and other successor states of the Soviet Union with treaties and agreements concluded bilaterally with the Soviet Union, compliance by other countries that are parties to multilateral agreements with the United States, and compliance with commitments made less formally but that bear directly upon arms control, nonproliferation, and/or disarmament issues. Several items of particular importance that have arisen since the last edition of the Report merit mention. Libyan Renunciation of Weapons of Mass Destruction Perhaps the most significant event since the submission of the last Noncompliance Report in June 2003 is Libya’s historic undertaking, on December 19, 2003, to renounce its pursuit of WMD and long-range missiles and to come back into compliance with its obligations under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, as well as to join and comply with the Chemical Weapons Convention and begin to eliminate its long-range missiles. In the next Report, the United States will publish a detailed analysis regarding our efforts to assist in Libya fulfill its commitments, with specific emphasis upon our degree of confidence that such WMD programs no longer remain in Libya and that its Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR)-class ballistic missiles have been, or will be, eliminated. This Report addresses Libya’s previous noncompliance with arms control, nonproliferation, and disarmament agreements – e.g., with Articles II and III of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) – before Libya renounced its WMD and MTCR-class missile programs and provides updates on the unprecedented cooperative WMD elimination and verification effort undertaken by Libya in 2004. Libya’s return to compliance will be discussed in more detail in the next edition of the Noncompliance Report. Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Another important development – albeit a less salutary one – during the period since the submission of the last Noncompliance Report has been North Korea’s withdrawal from the NPT and the large volume of new information available about the challenge to the NPT regime presented by Iran’s long history of clandestine nuclear activity. The United States has warned publicly for more than ten years that Iran was engaged in a covert effort to develop nuclear weapons, but it was only in 2002 that much information began to appear in public about the Iranian nuclear program. Since that time, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has extensively documented much of the Iranian program, making detailed information available about Iran’s long history of undeclared activity and lies to the IAEA and the rest of the international community. This Report marks the first time that U.S. noncompliance findings have specified violations of the NPT on an article-by-article basis. Such distinctions are particularly important in cases such as Iran’s, because of the potentially quite different implications of Article II and Article III noncompliance. A violation of Article III – e.g., a country’s noncompliance with its IAEA Safeguards Agreement – might occur for a variety of reasons, not all of which are sinister (e.g., simple error). An Article II violation, however – that is, an effort to manufacture or otherwise acquire a nuclear weapon or other nuclear explosive device, or seeking or receiving any assistance in such manufacture – necessarily represents a willful subversion of the NPT’s core nonproliferation principles. For this reason, and in keeping with the United States’ emphatic commitment to rigor and clarity in all compliance assessments, this Report sets forth NPT noncompliance findings with greater specificity than in previous reports. This Report also contains much new information on North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, and its longstanding violation of the NPT prior to its withdrawal from that Treaty becoming effective in 2003. Recent developments in North Korea have been particularly significant because of Pyongyang’s admission to a U.S. delegation in October 2002 that it had been pursuing a clandestine uranium enrichment program, its resumption of activities at the Yongbyon facility, its announcement of the resumption of plutonium reprocessing, and its shifting admissions and denials with respect to the plutonium weapons it has already produced. This Report details North Korea’s violations – through the pursuit of both uranium- and additional plutonium-based nuclear weapons – of its IAEA Safeguards Agreements, Articles II and III of the NPT, the 1994 Agreed Framework, and the Joint North-South Declaration on the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Expansion of START Compliance Section Section 403 of the Arms Control and Disarmament Act – the legislative basis for the submission to Congress of this series of Noncompliance Reports – requires that the Report provide greater specificity about compliance concerns. To wit, the law requires the Report to include "a specific identification, to the maximum extent practicable in an unclassified form, of each and every question that exists with respect to compliance by other countries with arms control, nonproliferation, and disarmament agreements with the United States." To comply with this requirement, this edition of the Report has included more information than ever before on, among other things, Russia’s implementation of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START). To facilitate this effort, in 2003 the United States conducted consultations with the Russian Government regarding a number of longstanding, unresolved U.S. concerns about Russian compliance with the START Treaty – some of which actually date back to the first year of START implementation. These included Russia preventing U.S. inspectors from measuring the launch canisters of certain Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) or verifying that certain ICBMs do not contain more warheads than attributed under the Treaty. The U.S. concerns also included Russia failing to provide all required telemetry materials for some START-accountable flight tests, failing properly to declare certain ICBM road-mobile launchers accountable under the Treaty, and locating some deployed SS-25 ICBM launchers outside their declared restricted areas. With respect to this last issue, however, it should be noted that Russia has taken steps that have resolved U.S. compliance concerns. Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) During this reporting period, the United States increased its efforts to engage in compliance-related dialogue with States Parties with which we continue to have concerns. The bilateral discussions underpin the United States’ effort to pursue strict compliance with the CWC and resolve questions regarding a State Party’s compliance. These actions have been taken under the Article IX provisions of the CWC for Consultations, Cooperation, and Fact-Finding. Article IX provides a role for every State Party to participate actively in resolving questions of concern which may cause doubt about compliance with the Convention. For its part, the United States has successfully used bilateral consultations under Article IX to resolve numerous compliance concerns. The CWC section of this Report addresses our concerns with China, Iran, Russia and Sudan, as well as the results of our interactions with Libya to assist it with declaring and eliminating its chemical weapons (CW) program. However, the United States also has conducted bilateral discussions with other States Parties during this reporting period. These bilateral efforts have been well received and useful in laying the groundwork for judging compliance; as a result, the United States has resolved a number of its CWC compliance concerns. In this regard, the United States welcomes the actions undertaken by Albania to declare newly discovered chemical weapons, obtain an extension to its CW destruction deadlines, and work transparently and cooperatively to ensure the security and elimination of these chemical weapons stocks. Such actions set a positive precedent for CWC compliance and deserve to be commended. Open Skies Treaty Finally, it is worth noting that the Open Skies Treaty came into force in January 2002, making this Report the first to discuss compliance with that Treaty. A. POLICYEffective progress by the international community in achieving key arms control, nonproliferation, and disarmament goals requires parties to comply fully with the obligations and commitments they have undertaken. Compliance with agreements or commitments freely negotiated or undertaken by parties is a fundamental cornerstone of U.S. national security policy and a bedrock norm of international relations. The rigorous U.S. approach to compliance is deeply rooted in our own legal system and fundamental principles and values. To that end, the United States is committed to adhering to the same high standard of compliance that it requires of others. In order to provide policymakers with information they need to fulfill their responsibilities, this Report identifies not only countries that we assess to be violating their obligations or commitments, but also those about which the United States has developed concerns about potential noncompliance. Every effort is made clearly to distinguish such cases, but it is important to raise both types of issues for attention. B. U.S. ORGANIZATIONS AND PROGRAMS TO EVALUATE AND ENSURE TREATY COMPLIANCE Our deep-seated legal tradition, a commitment to U.S. agreements that enhance our security and that of our allies and friends, and the transparency and accountability that result from our open and democratic society, create powerful incentives to comply with agreements to control nuclear weapons, other weapons of mass destruction, and other dangerous technologies. Legal and institutional procedures to ensure compliance have been established, and specialized compliance-related organs set up within the U.S. Government by law and by longstanding policy; they reflect the seriousness with which these obligations are taken and they reinforce these underlying policies and principles. Department of Defense (DoD) compliance review groups, for instance, oversee and manage DoD compliance with arms control, nonproliferation, and disarmament agreements and related commitments. The Verification and Compliance Analysis Working Group (VCAWG), an interagency organization, oversees and manages analysis of compliance of other nations with arms control, nonproliferation, and disarmament agreements and related commitments. In addition, the VCAWG participates actively in the preparation of this annual report detailing the assessment of both the United States’ and other nations’ adherence to obligations undertaken in arms control, nonproliferation, and disarmament agreements, and related commitments. Moreover, an interagency review is conducted in appropriate cases, including when other Treaty Parties officially raise questions regarding U.S. implementation of its obligations. In addition, federal law mandates the existence, within the U.S. State Department, of the Bureau of Verification and Compliance; this bureau is devoted by law to detecting and assessing noncompliance with such agreements and commitments. U.S. law also mandates the production of this report on compliance with arms control, nonproliferation, and disarmament agreements and commitments, the compliance findings of which are discussed and debated extensively within the U.S. interagency community and then forwarded to Congress by the Secretary of State on behalf of the President. Finally, Congress – which has long shown a keen interest in compliance matters – performs oversight functions through committee hearings, budget allocations, and a variety of formal and informal investigative means pursuant to its powers as a coordinate branch of the U.S. federal system. C. IMPORTANCE OF TREATY AND COMMITMENT ENFORCEMENT The United States uses its assessments of a country’s compliance with arms control, nonproliferation, and disarmament agreements and commitments as guides to policymaking. Such agreements and commitments cannot serve their purpose of increasing U.S. and international security if countries do not fulfill their obligations or pledges. Verification, compliance assessment, and enforcement are sometimes seen as separate and separable activities, but they are not: all three elements are interrelated, and none can have real value without the others. Compliance enforcement is an essential component of the process. Only by making violators face consequences for their violations can they be expected to take compliance seriously, and only by making violators face such consequences will other would-be violators be deterred. Indeed, without taking steps to bring such compliance pressure to bear, or to counter the threats posed by noncompliance, there would be little point in trying to detect noncompliance in the first place. The United States works vigorously not just to detect noncompliance but also to induce violators to return to compliance. Because all participating states have a similar security interest in ensuring compliance, we urge other countries to do the same. Though the most immediate responsibilities for compliance enforcement will vary depending upon the nature of the agreement or commitment in question, all responsible members of the international community share a common security interest in ensuring that parties to arms control, nonproliferation, and disarmament agreements and commitments comply with their undertakings. A wide range of tools is available for compliance enforcement purposes, including diplomatic pressure and economic sanctions. The United States supports effective compliance enforcement, and, in furtherance of this goal, seeks to build international coalitions to exert effective compliance pressures upon violators – either to induce a return to compliance or to thwart or degrade the advantages the violator may seek to obtain from its noncompliance. The United States also is prepared to employ unilateral measures when necessary and appropriate to address such noncompliance. 1. NONCOMPLIANCE CHALLENGES AND REQUIRED RESPONSES Two themes emerged over the past two years as this Report was prepared and updated – first, that serious compliance challenges exist, but also that countries can make the strategic decision to come into compliance, particularly if other parties work to seek such a strategic commitment. There has been a serious failure by two NPT Parties to comply with the core nonproliferation undertakings of Articles II and III of the Treaty. The United States and other like-minded states have been struggling with one such case for more than a decade. North Korea has violated these Articles by its continued development of plutonium weapons and pursuit of uranium ones, and it has refused thus far to make the strategic decision to accept the complete, verifiable, and irreversible dismantlement of its nuclear program. Another case of Article II and III violations has thrust itself upon the attention of the international community as more and more of Iran’s secret nuclear weapons programs have been exposed to public view. Such cases illustrate the challenge of persuading committed violators to reverse their violations and enforcing full adherence to and compliance with the NPT’s core nonproliferation obligations. Other international arms control and nonproliferation regimes or commitments face their own sets of compliance challenges. On the other hand, the world has observed the emergence of a few remarkable compliance success stories. Most significant is Libya’s historic announcement, on December 19, 2003, to renounce its pursuit of WMD and long-range missiles and its implementation of that commitment. Similarly, Albania’s actions to declare newly discovered chemical weapons, obtain an extension to its CW destruction deadlines, and work transparently and cooperatively to ensure the security and elimination of these chemical weapons stocks set a positive precedent for CWC compliance and deserve to be commended. 2. ENFORCING COMPLIANCE Even if violations are detected early and are quickly understood as such, an arms control, nonproliferation or disarmament regime can still be in peril if its members are unable or unwilling to address them as compliance challenges. Detection is only part of what is needed: violations must have consequences. National governments play a critical role both in deterring and detecting violations, and in taking resolute action – individually and collectively – to enforce compliance and hold violators accountable for their actions. Verification only works when these elements act together to deter, detect, and remedy noncompliance. D. U.S. COMPLIANCE WITH ARMS CONTROL, NONPROLIFERATION, AND DISARMAMENT ARGREEMENTS AND COMMITMENTS There are three major programs within the U.S. executive branch that operate to ensure that U.S. plans and programs remain consistent with U.S. international obligations. These procedures include internal Department of Defense (DoD) controls, Department of Energy (DOE) procedures and controls, and separate evaluations produced by the Department of State. These procedures operate in parallel, and in addition, to congressional oversight. In 1972, by direction of the President, the DoD established a process to ensure that all DoD programs comply with U.S. international obligations. Under this compliance process (established with the SALT I agreements), key offices in DoD are responsible for overseeing DoD compliance with all U.S. arms control, nonproliferation, and disarmament commitments. DoD components ensure that their implementing program offices adhere to DoD compliance directives and seek guidance from the offices charged with oversight responsibility. Interagency reviews are also conducted in appropriate cases, such as when other Treaty Parties formally raise questions regarding U.S. implementation of its arms control obligations. 2. TREATY COMPLIANCE The United States is in compliance with all its obligations under arms control, nonproliferation, and disarmament agreements, and continues to make every effort to comply scrupulously. Because of the breadth and intrusiveness of most arms control, nonproliferation, and disarmament regimes and their extensive notification and data exchange requirements, the United States has on occasion committed some errors in meeting our treaty obligations. When our Treaty Partners have raised compliance questions regarding U.S. implementation activities, the United States has carefully reviewed the matter to determine whether its actions were in compliance with its treaty obligations. When an error has been made, the United States has acknowledged this fact to our Treaty Partners and taken steps to correct the problem. 3. ISSUES RAISED BY OTHER TREATY PARTIES CONCERNING U.S. COMPLIANCE a. THE INTERMEDIATE-RANGE NUCLEAR FORCES (INF) TREATY The Treaty between the United States of America and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics on the Elimination of Their Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles (INF Treaty) required the elimination of all U.S. and Soviet ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges of between 500 and 5,500 kilometers, their launchers and associated support equipment and permanently banned the possession, production, and flight-testing of such missiles. The United States and the Soviet Union completed the elimination of all declared INF-prohibited systems in 1991. Inspection rights under the Treaty ceased at midnight on May 31, 2001. With the dissolution of the Soviet Union, all 12 former Soviet republics became Parties to the Treaty. The United States, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine are the active participants in the Special Verification Commission (SVC), the implementing body for the INF Treaty. Russia has expressed INF compliance concerns related to certain procedures used during past inspections in the United States, and to the treaty status of specific missiles and a silo test launcher. With regard to each of these concerns, the United States has determined that it is in full compliance with the INF Treaty. U.S. officials have addressed these concerns in great detail in the SVC, through diplomatic channels, and meetings at the political level, explaining why U.S. actions are fully consistent with the Treaty. b. THE STRATEGIC ARMS REDUCTION TREATY (START) The entry into force of the START Treaty on December 5, 1994, ushered in a verification regime of unprecedented complexity and intrusiveness. In addition to verification by national technical means, data notifications, missile flight test telemetry exchanges, and other cooperative measures, the Treaty provides for 12 types of on-site inspections and exhibitions, as well as continuous on-site monitoring activities at specified facilities. As required, the Parties have exchanged updated START Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) data on a semiannual basis and continued to exercise their right to conduct on-site inspections. During 2002 and 2003, the United States hosted 30 such on-site inspections each year at U.S. facilities. As might be expected under a verification regime with the breadth and intrusiveness of START, a number of compliance questions have been raised by our Treaty Partners. These questions primarily concern procedural issues related to inspections, flight tests of submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) and telemetry, as well as a few substantive disagreements with U.S. equipping and positioning of its heavy bombers and the nature of certain intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launchers. A number of these issues have been resolved in the Joint Compliance and Inspection Commission (JCIC) and through diplomatic channels, while others have been under active discussion since 1995. With regard to each of these concerns, the United States has determined that it is in full compliance with the START Treaty. U.S. officials have addressed these concerns in great detail in the JCIC, through diplomatic channels, and meetings at the political level, explaining why U.S. actions are fully consistent with the Treaty. V. COMPLIANCE BY SUCCESSORS TO TREATIES AND AGREEMENTS CONCLUDED BILATERALLY WITH THE SOVIET UNION A. THE INTERMEDIATE-RANGE NUCLEAR FORCES (INF) TREATY The Treaty between the United States of America and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics on the Elimination of Their Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles (INF Treaty) was signed by U.S. President Ronald Reagan and Soviet General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev on December 8, 1987, and entered into force on June 1, 1988. Elimination of all declared missiles and launchers under the Treaty was completed in 1991. The Treaty is of unlimited duration, and bans the possession, production, and flight testing of intermediate- and shorter-range missile systems. The Treaty required the complete elimination of all the approximately 800 U.S. and approximately 1,800 former Soviet ground-launched missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers, as well as their launchers and associated support equipment and structures. All such items were eliminated by May 28, 1991. The Treaty established a verification regime using national technical means (NTM), notifications, and an on-site inspection system to detect and thus help deter violations of Treaty obligations. This inspection regime concluded on May 31, 2001, at the end of 13 years following the Treaty’s entry into force. All Treaty-related on-site inspection activities have now ceased. The remainder of the verification regime, however, continues for the life of the Treaty (i.e., indefinitely). The United States has identified no INF Treaty compliance issues with its Treaty Partners as of this report. The United States will continue to verify compliance with the INF Treaty through NTM for the duration of the Treaty. UPDATE ON SS-23 MISSILES In 1990, the United States discovered that the Soviet Union had transferred a number of SS-23 shorter-range missiles to the former German Democratic Republic, Czechoslovakia, and Bulgaria. While this transfer did not violate the INF Treaty since it occurred prior to Treaty signature, the United States had serious compliance concerns regarding this issue. The nations whose military forces held the SS-23 missiles were not INF Parties, and thus were never legally obligated under the Treaty. As a matter of policy, the United States has sought the destruction of these missiles in order to fulfill the objectives of the INF Treaty. Germany and the Czech Republic destroyed their SS-23 missiles and associated support equipment during the 1990s. The Slovak Republic, which gained possession of a number of SS-23 missiles following the "Velvet Divorce" with Czechoslovakia, agreed to destroy its missiles with financial assistance provided by the Department of State’s Nonproliferation and Disarmament Fund (NDF). On October 27, 2000, a team of U.S. observers confirmed that the Slovak Republic had completed the destruction of its SS-23 missiles and associated support equipment. Bulgaria announced its intention in December 2001 to destroy its SS-23 missiles by October 2002. The United States offered to provide technical and financial assistance under the NDF, which Bulgaria accepted. The destruction of Bulgaria’s SS-23 missiles began in July 2002. On January 16, 2004, a team of U.S. observers confirmed that Bulgaria had completed the destruction of its SS-23 missiles and associated support equipment. This issue has now been resolved. B. THE STRATEGIC ARMS REDUCTION TREATY (START) Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine are in compliance with the START strategic offensive arms (SOA) central limits. Both the United States and Russia met the START seven-year reduction final ceilings of 1,600 delivery vehicles and 6,000 attributed warheads by the December 4, 2001, deadline. By December 2001, these four Former Soviet Union (FSU) successor states had reduced their aggregate forces to 1,136 deployed launchers, 5,518 deployed warheads, and 4,894 deployed ballistic missile warheads, as defined by Article II of the Treaty, and all strategic weapons had been removed or eliminated from the territories of Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. Additionally, START required the four FSU successor states to eliminate at least 154 heavy ICBM (SS-18)silo launchers by December 2001. In the original MOU, dated September 1, 1990, the Soviet Union declared 308 SS-18 heavy ICBM silo launchers. As of November 30, 2001, a total of 158 SS-18 silo launchers had been eliminated – 104 in Kazakhstan and 54 in Russia – leaving a total of 150 deployed heavy ICBMs. Notwithstanding the overall success of START implementation, a significant number of longstanding compliance issues that have been raised in the START Treaty’s Joint Compliance and Inspection Commission (JCIC) remain unresolved. The Parties continue to work through diplomatic channels and in the JCIC to ensure smooth implementation of the Treaty and effective resolution of compliance issues and questions. The United States raised six new compliance issues during the period of this report. The United States considers four of these to have been closed. However, several previous – often long-standing – compliance issues remain unresolved. A number of these issues, some of which originated as early as the first year of Treaty implementation, highlight the different interpretations of the Parties about how to implement the complex inspection and verification provisions of the START Treaty. ICBM ISSUES Inability to Confirm during Reentry Vehicle Inspections (RVOSIs) that the Number of Attributed ICBM Warheads Has Not Been Exceeded. During RVOSIs of deployed Russian ICBMs, U.S. inspectors have been hampered, in some cases, from ascertaining whether the missile had a front section, or that the front section contained no more reentry vehicles (RVs) than the number of warheads attributed to a missile of the declared type under the Treaty. The purpose of an RVOSI, as set forth in paragraph 6 of Article XI of the Treaty, is to confirm that a ballistic missile contains no more RVs than the number of warheads attributed to a missile of that type. The RVOSI procedures are referenced in paragraph 16 of Section IX of the Inspection Protocol and contained in Annex 3 to the Inspection Protocol. Paragraph 11 of Annex 3 allows the inspected Party to cover RVs. Inspectors have a right to view these covers and to measure hard covers prior to their placement on the RVs. The covers are then installed on the RVs before the inspectors view the front section. Under the Treaty, such covers must not hamper inspectors in ascertaining that the front section contains no more RVs than the number of warheads attributed to a missile of that type. Russian RV covers, in some instances, are too large; consequently, they fail to meet this requirement. During certain RVOSIs, Russia did not demonstrate to the satisfaction of the U.S. inspection team that additional covered objects located on the front section, and declared by Russia not to be RVs, were not RVs. Although START does not differentiate between nuclear and non-nuclear RVs, Russia’s willingness to use radiation detection equipment (RDE) during such RVOSIs to establish that the extra objects were not nuclear has been useful for resolving some, but not all, U.S. concerns. FINDING. Russian RV covers, and their method of emplacement, have in some cases hampered U.S. inspectors from ascertaining that the front section of the missiles contains no more RVs than the number of warheads attributed to a missile of that type under the Treaty. Russian cooperation in the use of RDE and other measures has been helpful in addressing some, but not all, of the difficulties encountered by U.S. inspectors. Russian Road-Mobile Launchers’ "Break-in." Russia has failed to declare certain road-mobile launchers of ICBMs when they first leave their production facility, as required by the Treaty. Russia has moved some of these launchers to an undeclared "break-in" area located over 60 miles from the production facility without declaring that they have left the production facility and are accountable under the Treaty. Pursuant to paragraph 6(b) of Article III of the Treaty, a mobile launcher of ICBMs becomes subject to the Treaty limitations when it first leaves a production facility. Not later than five days following the first exit of such a newly produced non-deployed road-mobile launcher, and its entry into Treaty accountability, Section I of the Notification Protocol requires the Party producing the new Treaty-accountable item to provide a notification of this change in data. Except for transits, Parties are proscribed from locating non-deployed mobile launchers outside the boundaries of the START-declared facilities identified in sub-paragraph 9(b) of Article IV of the Treaty. FINDING. Russia continues to violate START provisions relevant to these obligations. Deployed SS-25 Road-Mobile Launchers Based Outside Their Designated Restricted Areas. Russia based some deployed SS-25 road-mobile launchers outside their declared restricted areas (RAs) at two road-mobile ICBM bases while these RAs were under construction. The United States and Russia concluded a temporary, interim policy arrangement regarding the conduct of inspections and cooperative measures at the facilities where the launchers were housed during the period of construction. This arrangement permitted U.S. inspectors to conduct data update inspections and RVOSIs that they had not previously been able to perform, and allowed Russia to cooperate fully with providing cooperative measures access for the launchers that were previously unavailable. All of these road-mobile ICBMs and their launchers have since been transferred from their bases, and their declared RAs have been eliminated as START facilities. FINDING. Notwithstanding the interim policy arrangement, Russia’s practice of locating deployed SS-25 road-mobile launchers outside their declared RAs for long periods of time constituted basing in a manner that violated the provisions of paragraphs 1 and 9 of Article VI of the Treaty. This practice has ceased and the United States considers this issue closed. Denial of the Right to Measure Certain Deployed ICBM Launch Canisters on Mobile Launchers. U.S. inspectors have been prevented from exercising the Treaty right to measure certain ICBM launch canisters on mobile launchers, both deployed and non-deployed, that are encountered during data update inspections to confirm data regarding the type of item of inspection. Russia, for instance, has prevented U.S. inspectors from measuring launch canisters for SS-24 ICBMs contained in rail-mobile launchers that are located within the boundaries of an inspection site. Similar concerns have arisen with regard to launch canisters for SS-25 and SS-27 mobile ICBMs located on road-mobile launchers. With regard to launch canisters for these latter types, Russia and the United States have agreed upon a policy arrangement to address this issue, though it has not yet been implemented for the SS-27 ICBM. Subparagraph 20(a) of Section VI of the Inspection Protocol identifies ICBM launch canisters as one of the items of inspection for data update inspections. In accordance with the procedures in Annex 1 to the Inspection Protocol, inspectors have the right to confirm the number and, if applicable, the types of items of inspection that are specified for the facility to be inspected and declared for the inspection site, and the right to confirm the absence of any other item of inspection at the inspection site. Pursuant to paragraph 6 of Annex 1, inspectors may view and measure the dimensions of a launch canister declared to contain an item of inspection to confirm it is of the declared type. FINDING. Russia prevented U.S. inspectors from exercising their Treaty right to measure launch canisters for SS-24 ICBMs contained in rail-mobile launchers that are located within the boundaries of an inspection site, in contravention of paragraphs 1 and 6 of Annex 1 to the Inspection Protocol. With regard to launch canisters for SS-25 and SS-27 ICBMs located on road-mobile launchers, the Parties have agreed upon a policy arrangement to address this issue, but it has not yet been implemented for the SS-27 ICBM. TELEMETRY ISSUES FINDING. Russia has in some instances failed to comply with Treaty requirements regarding the provision of telemetry information on missile flight testing pursuant to Article X of the START Treaty and Sections I and II of the Telemetry Protocol. VI. COMPLIANCE OF OTHER NATIONS (INCLUDING SUCCESSORS TO THE SOVIET UNION) WITH MULTILATERAL AGREEMENTS A. THE 1972 BIOLOGICAL AND TOXIN WEAPONS CONVENTION (BWC)As of December 2003, there were 151 States Parties to the 1972 Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention. An additional 16 countries have signed but have not yet ratified the agreement, including Syria. This Report addresses the activities of China, Cuba, Iran, Iraq, Libya, North Korea, Russia (and the former Soviet Union) and Syria. This Report examines whether these States Parties are complying with the obligations assumed under the BWC and are providing accurate data under agreed BWC Confidence Building Measures (CBMs). It also addresses the BW-related activities of Syria, which is a signatory to the Convention. While the United States has concerns regarding the activities of other countries, the specific cases addressed here are those that have assumed obligations relevant to the BWC and for which the most evidence exists of actual or potential noncompliance. At the 1986 BWC Review Conference, the States Parties adopted a set of non- binding CBMs; these were expanded at the 1991 Review Conference. The States Parties also agreed that the data called for in these CBMs should be submitted to the United Nations annually (by April 15). Since adoption of the non-binding CBMs in 1987, some 85 of the 151 BWC States Parties have submitted at least one declaration. Of those, a small number of States Parties have made only an initial declaration, instead of annual declarations. Still others submitted declarations at one time but have not done so recently. Some have simply submitted a statement that they have nothing to declare, or that they are in compliance with the BWC. The lack of participation in the CBMs is a concern to the United States. Data provided by the CBMs has some limited utility for enhancing U.S. understanding of foreign biotechnical activities and capabilities, and CBMs clearly poorly serve their intended confidence-building purposes when States Parties implement them with such inconsistency and lack of transparency. The Fifth BWC Review Conference suspended its 2001 session without agreement, and resumed in November 2002. At that time, it made a consensus decision to hold a series of annual meetings of States Parties in 2003, 2004, and 2005, leading up to the Sixth Review Conference in 2006. Each meeting was to be prepared by a meeting of relevant Experts. Setting aside previous failed attempts to use traditional arms control measures to enhance the transparency of biotechnical activities, the States Parties agreed to discuss, and promote common understanding and effective action on, a specified set of topics that – if implemented nationally or through relevant international organizations – could have practical utility in helping counter the BW threat. This approach is particularly important in an era in which the capability to create and employ biological weapons is spreading beyond state actors to terrorist groups and even individuals. These topics are:
The meetings held in 2003 brought experts together to share experiences and views, and resulted in recommendations for national actions that – if taken – will reinforce the BWC and contribute to stemming the BW threat. The United States continues to encourage States Parties to follow through on their work program commitments. There are significant challenges in monitoring and verifying compliance with the BWC. Article I, paragraph 1 of the Convention prohibits development, production, stockpiling, acquisition, or retention of microbial or other biological agents or toxins, of types and in quantities that have no justification for prophylactic, protective, or other peaceful purposes. Article I, paragraph 2 also prohibits the development, production, or stockpiling of weapons, equipment, or means of delivery designed to use such agents or toxins for hostile purposes or in armed conflict. The emphasis in Article I upon whether or not the purposes for which materials or items are possessed are "peaceful" or "hostile" makes clear that not only the existence, but also the intent of any country’s biological program, must be part of any compliance determination. Making a judgment about intent is challenging given the dual-use nature of most biotechnology equipment, facilities, and activities. As with other agreements – particularly those involving dual-use technologies that may be used in a variety of legitimate or illegitimate ways – intent is a critical element, and it may have to be inferred from the circumstances, in light of all available information, if direct evidence is not available. COUNTRY ASSESSMENTS CHINA ISSUE. The United States believes that China continues to maintain some elements of an offensive BW capability. The issue is whether this capability constitutes a violation of the BWC. HISTORY OF COMPLIANCE EVALUATION. The United States has assessed the People’s Republic of China’s compliance with the BWC as early as June 1992. At that time, the United States concluded that it was highly probable that China had not eliminated its BW program since becoming a State Party to the BWC in 1984. In the 1994 Report, we indicated that China’s CBM-mandated declarations had not resolved U.S. concerns about this probable BW program, and reported that there were strong indications that China "probably maintains its offensive program." In the unclassified version of the June 2003 Report, the United States concluded more specifically that:
DISCUSSION OF OBLIGATIONS. China deposited its instrument of accession, and thereby became a State Party to the BWC on November 15, 1984. Since that point, China has been obligated to comply fully with the provisions of the Convention. ACTIONS. The United States believes that China began its offensive BW program in the 1950s and continued its program throughout the Cold War, even after China acceded to the BWC in 1984. Undoubtedly China perceived a threat from the BW programs of its neighbor, the Soviet Union. There are some reports that China may still retain elements of its biological warfare program. Such reports support the United States’ continued belief that China has not abandoned its offensive BW program. China has a number of civilian and military facilities that could be associated with an offensive BW program. For example:
From 1993 to the present, military scientists have published in open literature the results of studies of aerosol stability of bacteria, models of infectious virus aerosols, and detection of aerosolized viruses using polymerase chain reaction technology. Such advanced biotechnology techniques could be applicable to the development of offensive BW agents and weapons. Facilities in China that may have legitimate public health and commercial uses could also offer access to additional BW-enabling capabilities. COMPLIANCE-RELATED DIALOGUE AND ANALYSIS. U.S. concerns regarding China’s BWC compliance are based on a number of indicators over a number of years. First, the United States believes that China possessed an offensive BW program prior to its accession to the BWC in 1984. Upon accession, China was obliged to eliminate its offensive program, but China never admitted this program and the United States believes that it maintained the program throughout most of the 1980s, at the very least. Although China has submitted its voluntary annual BWC CBM data declarations every year – and did so again in 2002 and 2003 – we assess that the information submitted therein continues to be inaccurate and misleading. BWC CBMs since 1991 have called on the States Parties to declare, among other things, their past offensive activities, which China has not done. On the contrary, China insists it never had such a program at all. In its October 17, 2002, announcement on the promulgation of "Regulations on Export Control of Dual-use Biological Agents and related Equipment and Technologies," for instance, China stated that it "has always fulfilled earnestly its obligations under the Convention" and "has never developed, produced or stockpiled any biological weapons, and never assisted any country to acquire or develop these weapons." These claims, we believe, are inaccurate. China’s current research activities and dual-use capabilities raise the possibility that sophisticated BW work could be underway. For example, because of the possible offensive applications of aerosolization techniques, the United States’ concerns are underscored by publications indicating military involvement in such research. CUBA ISSUE. Cuba has the technical capability to conduct limited offensive BW research and development. HISTORY OF COMPLIANCE EVALUATION. Prior to the June 2003 NCR, there were no specific discussions of Cuban noncompliance in this Report. The June 2003 NCR finding on Cuba concluded that:
DISCUSSION OF OBLIGATIONS. Cuba became a party to the BWC in 1976. Since 1991, Cuba has submitted annual declarations pursuant to the agreed BWC CBMs. ACTIONS. Cuba has a highly sophisticated biotechnology industry encompassing the pharmaceutical, biomedical, vaccine, veterinary, and agricultural sectors. Cuba has well qualified scientists skilled in microbiology, virology, and biochemistry, who collaborate extensively with scientists around the world, including other countries of concern. Reflecting a very large capital investment, Cuba’s biotechnology industry includes a full range of modern dual-use facilities for R & D, large-scale production, down-stream processing, and product finishing. Its product inventory includes vaccines, research reagents, medical diagnostic supplies, transgenic animals and plants, agricultural materials, and various pharmaceuticals supplying over 40 countries. Many of these products were developed using state-of-the-art recombinant DNA technology and reflect a sophisticated technical capability. Although Cuba has had a long history of medical research, much of the current infrastructure was developed within the past 20 years such that the Cuban biotechnology sector offers low-cost products and services throughout the world. Reflecting a very large capital investment, the biotechnology program owes its genesis and ongoing support to Fidel Castro, largely to generate revenue and as a matter of national prestige. COMPLIANCE-RELATED DIALOGUE AND ANALYSIS. As noted above, the June 2003 NCR finding stated that Cuba likely had "at least a limited, developmental offensive biological warfare research and development effort." While it is clear that Cuba’s biotechnology industry could be put to offensive BW uses – and that this industry’s extensive international contacts could be a focus of BW-related proliferation – the key factual issue is whether or not Cuba has in fact applied its biotechnology skills to offensive BW work. Based on the same body of reporting, there is a split view over whether Cuba maintains a BW effort. This arises because the body of information available on Cuba is inconclusive, supporting hypotheses both for and against Cuba having an offensive effort. In a recent National Intelligence Estimate, the Intelligence Community unanimously held that it was unclear whether Cuba has an active offensive biological warfare effort now, or even had one in the past. On the basis of the same reporting, the policy community believes that the compliance judgment of the June 2003 NCR that Cuba has "at least a limited, developmental offensive BW research and development effort" remains correct. The U.S. Government will seek to pursue additional information on which to assess this issue. IRAN ISSUE. Despite being a long-standing State Party to the Biological Weapons Convention and submitting confidence-building measures under the provisions of the BWC, Iran’s capabilities and activities continue to raise concerns about the nature of its BW-related activities. HISTORY OF COMPLIANCE EVALUATION. In the unclassified version of the June 2003 Report, the United States concluded that:
DISCUSSION OF OBLIGATIONS. Iran is an original state party to the BWC; it ratified the treaty in 1973. Iran submitted CBM data in 1998, 1999, and 2002. ACTIONS. Iran began its offensive BW program in the early 1980s during the Iran-Iraq war. Hashemi-Rafsanjani – then Acting Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces, as well as Speaker of the Majlis – was reported to have announced during an October 1988 speech: "We should fully equip ourselves both in the offensive and defensive use of chemical, bacteriological, and radiological weapons. From now on, you should make use of the opportunity and perform this task." The United States believes Iran has endeavored to follow through on Rafsanjani’s direction in this regard. Iran’s technical base in biotechnology has advanced since the mid-1980s, providing further expertise that could be – and may well be – employed in support of a BW program. Over the past decade, Iran has also improved its bioproduction capabilities across the board. In spite of its growing indigenous manufacturing capability, Iran continues to aggressively seek foreign technology, training, and expertise to advance its biotechnology industry. Although these relationships are ostensibly for legitimate reasons, Iran could use them to support its BW program. According to open press reporting, Iran is expanding its biotechnology and biomedical industries by building large, state-of-the-art research and pharmaceutical production facilities. These industries could easily hide pilot to industrial-scale production capabilities for a potential BW program, and could mask procurement of BW-related process equipment. Iran is technically capable of producing at least rudimentary, bulk-fill biological warheads for a variety of delivery systems, including missiles. COMPLIANCE-RELATED DIALOGUE AND ANALYSIS. The scope and nature of Iranian activities demonstrate an expanding legitimate biotechnology industry, which could house an offensive biological weapons program. Particularly in light of Iran’s approach towards compliance with its nuclear and chemical weapons-related nonproliferation obligations (see below), available information about Iranian activities indicates a maturing offensive program with a rapidly evolving capability that may soon include the ability to deliver these weapons by a variety of means. The Iranian BW program has been embedded within Iran’s extensive biotechnology and pharmaceutical industries so as to obscure its activities. The Iranian military has used medical, education, and scientific research organizations for many aspects of BW-related agent procurement, research, and development. Iran has also failed to submit the data declarations called for in the BWC CBMs. FINDING. The United States judges that, based on all available information, Iran has an offensive biological weapons program in violation of the BWC. IRAQ ISSUE. During Saddam Hussein’s regime prior to 1991, Iraq engaged in activities that raised concerns regarding Iraq’s compliance with its BWC obligations and its adherence to UN Security Council resolutions. HISTORY OF COMPLIANCE EVALUATION. In the early 1990s, the United States judged that Iraq had developed and produced biological warfare agents and weapons and had likely stockpiled them. This assessment noted that inspections, conducted after the end of the first Gulf War under the auspices of the United Nations, were not able to provide any support for Iraq’s uncorroborated claims that it had performed only basic BW research. However, following the 1995 defection of General Hussein Kamel Hassan, Iraq then presented the UN Special Commission (UNSCOM) with dramatically new information on its past biological warfare program, including details concerning agent production, weaponization, and sites. We then expressed the belief that Iraq was capable of producing biological warfare agents and was probably intent on continuing its offensive BW program if the threat of UNSCOM inspections and long-term monitoring were removed. The United States declared its suspicions that "Iraq may not be in compliance with the BWC" as early as CY1996 Report; however, we could not formally assess Iraq’s compliance until we completed our review of Iraq’s "Full, Final, and Complete Declaration." In that Report, however, we noted that "though the recent Iraqi disclosures have been substantial, we believe that Iraq has not yet presented all details of its offensive BW program." This judgment remained unchanged until the CY1999 Report (dated October 1, 2000). In the CY1999 NCR, we noted that there had been no UNSCOM weapons inspections or monitoring since December 1998. In the June 2003 Report, the United States concluded that:
DISCUSSION OF OBLIGATIONS. Iraq signed the BWC in 1972. As required under UN Security Council Resolution 687, Iraq ratified the BWC in April 1991, thereby obligating it, pursuant to paragraph 1 of Article I of the BWC, to destroy or divert to peaceful purposes all agents, toxins, weapons, equipment, and delivery means in its possession or under its jurisdiction or control and not to develop, produce, stockpile, or otherwise acquire or retain biological agents or toxins "of types and in quantities that have no justification for prophylactic, protective or other peaceful purposes." Iraq was also required, pursuant to paragraph 2 of Article I of the BWC, to give up all weapons and means of delivery designed to use such agents or toxins for hostile purposes or in armed conflict. ACTIONS. Until July 1995, Iraq claimed that it had met its obligations under the BWC. As noted above, however, after the August 1995 defection of General Hussein Kamel Hassan to Jordan, Iraq presented UNSCOM with dramatically new information on its past biological warfare program, including details concerning agent production, weaponization, and sites. Nevertheless, Iraq’s accounts of weapon development and deployment remained incomplete, as did its accounts of overall military doctrine and concepts of use. By end of 2002, the UN had not yet received documentation or other evidence from Iraq that corroborated: (1) the majority of the information contained in Iraq’s Full, Final, and Complete Declaration; (2) Iraqi claims that all BW agents and weapons have been unilaterally destroyed; and(3) Iraqi claims that its BW program has been completely dismantled. On December 7, 2002, Iraq presented to the UN Monitoring, Verification, and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC) a "Currently Accurate Full and complete Declaration" for its BW program, but this contained little new information to answer the remaining questions about the program. In violation of its obligations under UN Security Council resolutions, Iraq did not permit any inspections or provide any new information to the UN from December 1998 until September 2002. In UNSCR 1441, adopted November 8, 2002, the Security Council declared that "Iraq has been and remains in material breach of its obligations under relevant resolutions …." Iraq agreed to renewed UN inspections under UNMOVIC in November 2002, and UNMOVIC and IAEA issued daily inspections reports from November 27, 2002 to March 13, 2003. During this time UNMOVIC collected over 100 biological samples for analysis and found them all consistent with Iraq’s declarations. Prior to Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF), which took place between March 20 and May 1, 2003, Iraq was legally bound by the BWC and a series of UN Security Council Resolutions obligating it to declare and destroy its WMD stockpiles and capabilities. The passage of UNSCR 1483 in May 2003 reaffirmed that Iraq must meet these disarmament obligations, and asked the United States and United Kingdom to keep the Council informed of U.S./UK activities in this regard. In June 2003, the Iraq Survey Group (ISG), composed of largely military experts from some coalition countries, began to conduct WMD/missile search and analysis operations. On October 2, 2003, the then-head of the ISG, Dr. David Kay, submitted his Interim Progress Report on the Activities of the Iraq Survey Group to the Senate Committee on Intelligence (SSCI) and the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence (HPSCI). Dr. Kay reported that Saddam Hussein had not given up his aspirations and intentions to continue work on offensive BW capabilities, and that the Ba’athist Iraqi Government had intended to resume WMD-related activities as soon as external restrictions (e.g., international sanctions, coalition "no-fly" patrols, and UN inspections) were removed. In September 2004, Charles Duelfer issued a comprehensive report to the Director of Central Intelligence on Iraq’s WMD. The report notes that Saddam continued to see the utility of WMD. He explained that Saddam purposely gave an ambiguous impression about possession as a deterrent to Iran. The Iraq Survey Group (ISG) found no direct evidence that Iraq, after 1996 (including the reporting period of this report), had plans for a new BW program or was conducting BW-specific work for military purposes. The Duelfer report judges that in 1991 and 1992, Iraq appears to have destroyed its undeclared stocks of BW weapons and probably destroyed remaining holdings of bulk BW agent. However, the ISG lacked evidence to document complete destruction. The Baa’thist Iraqi Government retained some BW-related seed stocks until their discovery after OIF. COMPLIANCE-RELATED DIALOGUE AND ANALYSIS. The United States finds that Iraq, during the course of the Saddam Hussein regime, was in violation of its obligations under the BWC. After signing the BWC in 1972, Iraq developed, produced, and stockpiled biological warfare agents and weapons and continued this activity even after ratifying the BWC in 1991. Despite an Iraqi obligation under UN Security Council resolutions adopted after the Gulf War to fully disclose and destroy its BW program, UNSCOMreported and the United Statesagrees that Iraq has concealed many details of its offensive biological warfare program and has engaged in a repeated pattern of obstruction, denial, and evasion. After UNSCOM weapons inspections and monitoring in Iraq ceased in December 1998, its successor, UNMOVIC, resumed on-site activities in Iraq but it never received full and active cooperation by Iraq. Iraq’s Declaration of December 7, 2002, failed to provide any new information or answer remaining questions about its BW program. Although the ISG found no direct evidence that Saddam’s regime, after 1996, had plans for a new offensive BW program or was conducting BW-specific work for military purposes, it did retain some BW-related seed stocks until their discovery after OIF. FINDING. The United States finds that Iraq, during Saddam Hussein’s regime, pursued an active offensive BW development program and that various aspects of this program violated its obligations under the BWC. The United States has further determined that during this period Iraq was in violation of its obligation under UN Security Council resolutions to declare and destroy its prohibited WMD and long-range missile programs and to cooperate fully with UN and IAEA inspections and monitoring. LIBYA ISSUE. In the wake of Libyan leader Col. Muammar Qadhafi’s pledge on December 19, 2003 to forswear all weapons of mass destruction programs, U.S. representatives continue to work to determine the extent to which Libya’s BW-related activities progressed prior to the Libyan commitment, and thus the extent to which Libya was compliant with the BWC. HISTORY OF COMPLIANCE EVALUATION. The United States assessed Libyan compliance with the BWC as early as June 1992. In that initial assessment, we concluded that Libya had the technical manpower and knowledge to produce small quantities of warfare agents and an interest in obtaining dual-use biological equipment, but that there was insufficient evidence to determine whether Libya had "developed, produced, weaponized or stockpiled BW agents for hostile purposes." The CY1993 through CY2000 Reports reached similar conclusions, noting in CY1994 Libya’s progress in "seeking to move their research program into a program of weaponized BW agents." In the June 2003 Report, however, the United States concluded that "[e]vidence indicates that Libya has the expertise to produce small quantities of biological equipment for its BW program and that the Libyan Government is seeking to move its research program into a program of weaponized BW agents. The United States judges that Libya is in probable violation of its obligations under the BWC." DISCUSSION OF OBLIGATIONS. On 19 December 2003, Col. Muammar Qadhafi pledged to eliminate material and equipment that might lead to the production of internationally proscribed weapons, and confirmed that Libya would be bound by its obligations under the Biological Weapons Convention, to which it acceded in January 1982. Libya has never submitted annual CBM declarations. As part of its December 2003 WMD commitment, Libya has stated its intent to submit BWC CBMs, perhaps within the year, to satisfy its promise to abide by the BWC. ACTIONS. As noted, in mid-December 2003, Libya publicly announced its intention to eliminate all internationally proscribed weapons programs, and affirmed that it would comply with its obligations under the Biological Weapons Convention. Since 1999, Libyan dictator Qadhafi invested the equivalent of millions of U.S. dollars in Libya’s biotechnology infrastructure. Tripoli has also centralized all biotechnology research efforts under the Libyan Academy of Sciences umbrella, an organization headed by Professor Ma’tuq Mohammed Ma’tuq. The Libyan biotechnological infrastructure continued to see significant growth in 2002. Prior to the Libyan disclosures in 2003, the United States had assessed that Libya had the expertise to produce small quantities of biological equipment for its BW program, and that information suggested that Libya was seeking to acquire the capability to develop and produce BW agents for offensive purposes. Such development or production would have violated key provisions of the BWC. COMPLIANCE-RELATED DIALOGUE AND ANALYSIS. We judge thatLibya had an offensive BW program prior to December 2003, but that this program had not progressed beyond the R&D stage. FINDING. Libya’s efforts over time result in an assessment that it had an active, developmental offensive BW program in the past that was in violation of Libya’s obligations under the BWC. While questions remain regarding the past offensive program – questions the Government of Libya has committed to help resolve – the United States judges that there is no longer an offensive biological weapons program. NORTH KOREA ISSUE. We continue to have serious concerns about the nature of North Korea’s BW-related activities. HISTORY OF COMPLIANCE EVALUATION. In the June 2003 Report, the United States concluded that:
DISCUSSION OF OBLIGATIONS. North Korea became a State Party to the BWC in March 1987. North Korea’s only BWC data submission pursuant to the BWC Confidence-Building Measures was in 1990. That submission asserted that North Korea had nothing to declare. ACTIONS. Available information suggests that North Korea has a mature offensive BW program, and that it may consider the use of biological weapons as an option in any future conflict. Its BW program probably includes Bacillus anthracis, Vibrio cholerae, and possibly other agents or toxins. North Korea has pursued biological warfare capabilities since the 1960s and continued its program despite having become a State Party to the BWC in 1987. In the past several years, North Korea has focused on building its biotechnology infrastructure some of which could be exploited for BW purposes. We assess that North Korea has developed and possesses a number of organisms that could be used as BW agents, including anthrax, plague, and cholera. Infectious diseases remain a serious problem in North Korea, and for the most part its vaccine program is consistent with current public health concerns. Nevertheless, North Korea is believed to possess a munitions-production infrastructure that would allow it to weaponize biological warfare agents, and may have such biological weapons available for use. COMPLIANCE-RELATED DIALOGUE AND ANALYSIS. We judge that North Korea possesses a number of organisms that could be used as BW agents, including anthrax, plague, and cholera. North Korea made its only CBM declaration — a "null declaration" stating essentially that it had nothing to declare — in 1990 and claimed to be in full compliance. The United States continues to believe that this declaration is false. FINDING. The United States believes North Korea has a dedicated, national-level effort to develop a BW capability and has developed, produced, and may have weaponized for use, BW agents in violation of the BWC. North Korea probably has the capability to produce sufficient quantities of biological agents for military purposes within weeks of a decision to do so. RUSSIA ISSUE. The United States is concerned that Russia maintains a mature offensive BW program. HISTORY OF COMPLIANCE EVALUATION. In January 1984, then-President Ronald Reagan reported to Congress that the Soviet Union was maintaining an offensive biological warfare program and capabilities and that the Soviet Union had repeatedly violated its legal obligations under the BWC. The former Soviet Union’s offensive biological warfare program, in fact, was the world’s largest and consisted of both military facilities and civilian research and development institutes. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Russian Government publicly committed to ending the former Soviet BW program; it claims to have done so in 1992. Nevertheless, serious concerns remain about Russia’s offensive biological warfare capabilities and about the status of some elements of the offensive BW capability inherited from the former Soviet Union (FSU). U.S. assessments in recent years have continued to cite these concerns, highlighting the apparent tension between what appears to be the commitment of key members of the Russian leadership to resolve BWC issues, and the continued involvement of veterans of the Soviet offensive program in both BWC-related meetings and in what Russia describes as its defensive BW program. In the unclassified June 2003 Report, the United States concluded that: "[t]he United States judges, based on available evidence, that Russia continues to maintain an offensive BW program in violation of the BWC. " DISCUSSION OF OBLIGATIONS. The Soviet Union, the United Kingdom, and the United States, as the three depository governments for the BWC, all deposited their Instruments of Ratification on March 26, 1975. Russia has assumed BWC successor status from the Soviet Union and therefore is bound to comply fully with the obligations contained therein. Even though the Soviet Union, and now Russia, regularly submitted annual CBMs, including in 2003, these submissions continue to be incomplete and misleading. ACTIONS. The United States continues to assess that Russia maintains a mature offensive BW program and that its nature and status have not changed. Russia’s BW program builds on capabilities and expertise inherited from the far more extensive Soviet BW program that dates back to the 1920s. Since the Soviet era, elements of that former Soviet BW program have been subject to varying degrees of downsizing and restructuring. There have also been severe cuts in funding and personnel at some key BW facilities. However, some key components of the former Soviet program may remain largely intact and may support a mobilization capability for the production of biological agents and delivery systems. The United States continues to receive unconfirmed reports of some ongoing offensive biological warfare activities, and key officials from the Soviet offensive BW program continue to occupy influentialpositions. A substantial amount of dual-use research conducted in recent years has legitimate biodefense applicability, but also could be used to further an offensive program. For example,
The United States also assesses that Russia has the capability to mobilize BW production. Since the demise of the Soviet Union in 1991, there has been a pronounced lack of openness and candor about the past offensive biological weapons program. Russia regularly submits its annual BWC CBM declarations to the United Nations, including in 2003, but these declarations are assessed to be only partially complete, and to include misleading information. The Soviet Government refused to admit the existence of its large and elaborate offensive BW program, despite repeated U.S. and UK inquiries and demarches. In April 1992, after the demise of the Soviet Union, then-President Boris Yeltsin issued a decree prohibiting all activities that contravene the BWC. In September 1992, the United States, United Kingdom, and Russia agreed on a Trilateral Process to create confidence that Russia had terminated all illegal biological weapons activity. While there was progress towards achieving the openness intended in the Joint Statement (which calls for a series of confidence-building visits and information exchanges), not all U.S. concerns were resolved. The Trilateral Process broke down in the mid-1990s without resolving U.S. and UK concerns regarding Russia’s compliance with the BWC. In June 2000, Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated Russia’s adherence to the Convention. In April 2001, the Duma removed Russia’s reservations to the 1925 Geneva Protocol that allowed for Russia’s retaliatory use of biological weapons – thereby eliminating an inconsistency with its BWC obligations. The U.S.-funded Cooperative Threat Reduction (CTR) and International Science and Technology Center (ISTC) programs continue to have access to several civilian facilities formerly involved in the Soviet offensive BW program. This transparency has lessened, but not eliminated our concerns that these civilian facilities are directly involved in an ongoing, offensive BW program. In 2002 and 2003, for instance, the United States was unable to certify, under the Cooperative Threat Reduction Act and Title V of the Freedom Support Act (FSA), Russia’s commitment to comply with the Biological (and Chemical) Weapons Conventions, explaining U.S. concerns as follows:
COMPLIANCE-RELATED DIALOGUE AND ANALYSIS. The United States continues to have concerns in several areas with respect to a Russian offensive BW program. The United States discussed Russia’s BWC noncompliance, in the CTR Waiver request, as follows:
This remains the United States’ assessment. Russia continues to challenge these charges. FINDING. The United States judges based on all available evidence that Russia continues to maintain an offensive BW program in violation of the Convention. SYRIA ISSUE. We continue to have concerns regarding the nature of Syria’s BW-related activities. HISTORY OF COMPLIANCE EVALUATION. The first time the United States discussed Syrian compliance in this version of the Report was in the June 2003 NCR. In that Report, the we concluded that: "[t]he United States judges, based upon the evidence available, that Syria is pursuing the development of biological weapons that would constitute a violation of the BWC if Syria were a State Party." DISCUSSION OF OBLIGATIONS. Syria signed the BWC in 1972, but has yet to ratify the Convention. Syria has indicated that its ratification of the BWC is contingent upon Israeli accession to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. ACTIONS. Syria’s biotechnical infrastructure is capable of supporting agent development. However, Syria lacks the technical infrastructure for a robust or sophisticated BW program and depends on foreign assistance to upgrade its biotechnology infrastructure. COMPLIANCE-RELATED DIALOGUE AND ANALYSIS. The United States believes that Syria, as a signatory to the BWC, has conducted research and development for an offensive BW program. FINDING. The United States judges that based upon the evidence available, Syria is developing an offensive biological warfare capability that would constitute a violation of the BWC if Syria were a State Party. B. THE TREATY ON CONVENTIONAL ARMED FORCES IN EUROPE (CFE) The Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) was signed November 19, 1990, by 22 States. On June 14, 1991, the Soviet Union issued two related statements in an extraordinary conference in Vienna and in the Joint Consultative Group (JCG). One contained legally-binding obligations related to equipment of the same categories as treaty-limited equipment (TLE) held by Naval Infantry, Coastal Defense (NI/CD), and Strategic Rocket Forces. The second contained political commitments related to equipment of Treaty-limited types removed from the CFE area of application by the Soviet Union prior to Treaty signature. In December 1991, the Soviet Union dissolved, and 12 newly-independent states (NIS) came into existence. In the Tashkent Agreement of May 15, 1992, the eight NIS with territory in the CFE Treaty’s area of application (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Russia and Ukraine) agreed on principles for, and most of the details of, allocating the CFE rights and obligations of the Soviet Union. At the Oslo Extraordinary Conference of all CFE participants in June 1992, these eight states confirmed their acceptance of all CFE and CFE-related rights and obligations of the former Soviet Union (FSU). On July 17, 1992, the CFE Treaty came into full provisional application. After the final instrument of ratification was deposited, the Treaty formally entered into force on November 9, 1992, with all Treaty timelines calculated from July 17, 1992. CFE-1A, an associated agreement that came into effect simultaneously with the CFE Treaty, establishes aggregate national ceilings for personnel in military forces in the area of application. It requires each CFE State Party to provide data on its peacetime authorized personnel strength and to brief on-site inspection (OSI) teams on the personnel holdings of units inspected. In January 1993, the Czechoslovak Federated Republic (CSFR) split into two separate states, the Czech Republic and the Slovak Republic, which accepted the rights and obligations of the former CSFR and were accepted into the Treaty. This brought the number of CFE States Parties to its present 30. Detailed CFE data, as of July 17, 1992, were exchanged in August 1992. Subsequent data exchanges required by the Treaty have occurred each year on December 15, with information as of January 1 of the following year. There was an additional data exchange as of November 16, 1995, at the end of the Treaty reduction period, when the Treaty’s limits on TLE and CFE-1A’s limits on personnel went into effect. The first Review Conference of States Parties to the Treaty took place on May 15-31, 1996. Among the achievements of this conference were: agreement on understandings and interpretations to improve the viability and effectiveness of the Treaty; identification of technical/administrative issues requiring further consideration in the Treaty’s Joint Consultative Group (JCG); a commitment to begin a negotiation process aimed at preserving the Treaty’s viability and improving its operation in a changing security environment (CFE adaptation); acceptance of a new schedule with some additional modalities for Russia’s obligations to destroy or convert equipment east of the Urals; and, in response to recognized Russian and Ukrainian flank concerns, an agreement revising the Treaty’s flank regime. The Flank Document has three basic elements: (1) reduction of the size of the flank zone in Russia and Ukraine by a map realignment; (2) establishment of limits on overall Russian TLE that could be in the original flank zone, and on Russian ACVs and all three categories of Ukrainian ground TLE in specific areas removed from the original flank zone; and (3) provision of greater transparency regarding military forces on Russian and Ukrainian territory in the original flank zone through additional inspections, data exchanges, and notifications. Under the agreement, Russia and Ukraine were required to meet all CFE obligations in the new and old (original) flank zones by May 31, 1999. Major parts of the Flank Document went into provisional effect immediately (including an interim cap on Russian TLE in the original flank area, as well as the enhanced transparency measures). The Flank Document entered into force on May 15, 1997. In January 1997, the States Parties began negotiations in the JCG to adapt the Treaty to new political circumstances, including the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact and the Soviet Union and enlargement of NATO. During 1997, NATO proposed a new structure of limitations that all States Parties accepted. In summer 1998, NATO tabled detailed proposals concerning the operation of the new limitations, including key military flexibilities, enhancement of data and verification provisions, and reconciliation of the 1996 Flank Agreement and related provisions. On November 19, 1999, an amendment document to adapt the CFE Treaty was signed at the OSCE summit in Istanbul; it will enter into force upon ratification by all 30 States Parties. Key elements of the Adapted Treaty include: national and territorial ceilings (NC and TC); flexibilities for situations when it would be necessary to exceed TCs; enhanced provisions regarding host state consent for the presence of foreign forces; enhanced transparency on forces, activities, and TLE holdings; increased opportunities for on-site inspections; and the opening of the Treaty to accession on a case-by-case basis. As noted in previous reports, including last year’s Condition 5 Report, in spite of some troubling exceptions, most of the provisions of the Treaty have been implemented with success. By the end of 2001, more than 52,000 pieces of conventional armaments and equipment had been reduced inside the CFE zone according to the Treaty’s reduction provisions, with many States Parties having reduced their holdings to lower levels than required – notifying over 6,000 voluntary reductions below limits. By that date, Russia had notified for destruction or conversion approximately 15,400 additional items in accordance with the provisions of Treaty-related agreements. Almost 4,100 intrusive on-site inspections had taken place by the end of 2001 (including supplementary flank inspections, expert’s visits, and reduction inspections). Through December 2002, Russia notified the destruction of over 5,700 tanks against its remaining east of the Urals (EoU) commitments. Through December 2003, States Parties notified over 1500 added reductions below their limits. Finally, the States Parties notified some 550 on-site inspections during 2002 and 2003 (including supplementary flank inspections, expert’s visits, and reduction inspections). On a major compliance concern – Russian stationing of forces in Moldova and Georgia without host state consent – some important progress has been made, but more needs to be done. In regard to a second major concern, Russian data and related notifications indicated that the overages above Adapted Treaty flank limits had been almost eliminated. Nevertheless, there remained a continuing need to monitor the situation. (Subsequently, Russia’s flank data as of July 1, 2002, and a related notification indicated that Russian holdings of TLE for the adapted flank area were within the future limits of the Adapted Treaty.) In addition, a number of other longstanding concerns remained in regard to Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine. In addition, new issues arose in 2002 and 2003. These are all discussed below. Additional details can be found in the CFE Compliance Report pursuant to Condition 5 on the Senate Resolution of Advice and Consent to the CFE Flank Document. Finally, there were a number of smaller, more technical concerns such as late or erroneous notifications, failure to notify removal of TLE from designated permanent storage sites (DPSS), failure to report correctly objects of verification (OOV), and the inability of escorts and unit commanders to account for missing TLE. COUNTRY ASSESSMENTS ARMENIA Declaring and Meeting Required Reduction Liabilities. As noted in previous Reports, Armenia has failed to notify properly or carry out all of the reductions required by the Treaty. This problem has existed since the Treaty came into force. Armenia’s failure to notify properly or to complete its required CFE reduction obligations contributes to the collective failure by the Soviet CFE successor states to meet their 1992 Oslo commitment to declare and to complete reduction requirements that are no less than the reduction requirements of the FSU (discussed under Collective Obligations). Apparent Failure to Report TLE Received from Russia. Reports over the last three years outlined possible Treaty implications of TLE transfers from Russia into Armenia between 1994 and 1996. There has been no change in this issue on the Armenian side, and there have been no new steps toward resolving the CFE issues surrounding these transfers. It is not clear whether it will be possible to make progress on this issue outside of the context of a political settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh (N-K) dispute which is the focus of the OSCE’s Minsk Group (co-chaired by the United States, Russia, and France). Failure to Declare Look-Alikes of the MT-LB Variant Armored Personnel Carrier (APC). For the first time in several years (after repeated U.S. questioning, and after an on-site inspection [OSI] in 2000 observed several MT-LB-U APC look-alikes at a site in Armenia), Armenia declared in its data as of January 1, 2001, exactly the number of MT-LB APC look-alikes based on the MT-LB-U chassis that had been observed during the inspection. Questions, however, remain. When Armenia previously declared MT-LB-Us in its annual data, for instance, it declared a much larger figure, and the declared Armenian force structure has not changed significantly. Late, and Possibly Incomplete, Notification of TLE Entry into Service. As reported previously, Armenia was late in notifying entry into service of multiple rocket launcher (MRL) systems acquired from China, and may have failed to report the full number received (according to press reports). Armenian representatives deny that more MRLs were received than the number they notified. The Armenians did not follow CFE procedures for providing technical data and photographs of these systems, but they hosted a Vienna Document 1999 demonstration of the new equipment in August 2000. Improper Site Diagram and Denial of Inspection Access. As reported last year, during the U.S.-led inspection in May 2000, the Armenian site diagram improperly excluded two common area units and access was denied to those areas. This problem, however, has not resurfaced and Armenian representatives have attributed it to inadequately trained escort personnel. Compliance with Limits. Previously, Armenia, while asserting compliance with its limits in the five major categories of TLE, exceeded its limit in the armored infantry fighting vehicle (AIFV)/heavy armament combat vehicle (HACV) sub-category of ACVs by |
