Message from the Secretary of State

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Panel:
Ambassador Raul Chaves Rabe, Philippine Ambassador to the United States
Congressman Robert Underwood, Chairperson, Asian Pacific American Congressional Caucus
Dr. Karl Jackson, School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University
Dr. Fred Brown, School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University
Mr. Bill Wise, The Woodrow Wilson Center

Ambassador Rabe began the discussion by providing an overview of the progress made by the Southeast Asian nations in recent years. He stressed that, despite the difficulties of the financial crisis, the ASEAN nations have made significant progress in promoting regional peace, stability and prosperity. Economically, the ASEAN countries have been among the fastest growing of the East Asian nations. Tremendous gains have been made in fighting poverty through economic modernization and trade and investment expansion.

This prosperity was anchored in political stability. From the withdrawal of Vietnam from Cambodia, which marked the end of the long wars in Indochina, until the onset of the financial crisis, a state of general peace prevailed within and between the nations of Southeast Asia. The Southeast Asian nations used this peace for nation-building, state consolidation, and deepening regional integration. This is evidenced by the addition of Laos, Myanmar and Cambodia to ASEAN membership. This regional alliance also provided the ASEAN nations with political influence in other regions of the world.

The regional financial crisis changed international perceptions of the region as the fragility of many Southeast Asian economies was amply revealed. It also set off a chain reaction of demands for greater transparency, accountability and good governance in both the public and private sectors of the region. All ASEAN countries have pursued economic reforms which will make for a stronger region in the long run. The ASEAN grouping has also entered a phase of self-assessment and reengineering.

Ambassador Rabe stressed the importance of the U.S. role in the region. The U.S. has provided security assistance, which allowed the ASEAN nations to focus on economic development. In addition, U.S. investment is crucial to help fuel the ASEAN economies. Ambassador Rabe stated that continued American leadership is needed in both security and economic spheres because the region still has its potential flashpoints--notably, the Korean peninsula and the maritime areas off the coast of mainland East Asia, including the Taiwan Straits and the South China Sea. He noted that these issues are central to the security interests of both the US and the regional countries involved. In the South China Sea, the US alone has the strategic influence to encourage China to accept a more open point of view regarding multilateral consultations.

Ambassador Rabe concluded by discussing U.S.-Philippine relations. He stated that the security relationship has been revitalized as both sides put the era of the bases behind them. Economically, the United States benefits from American business investments in the Philippines that serve as a base for investment in East Asia. He believes that the future will bring greater US-Philippine cooperation because the American and Filipino peoples share values of democratic governance, political tolerance, social progress, and market-based economic development. This bilateral cooperation will serve as a reliable center of gravity in a Southeast Asian region so full of change.

Congressman Underwood (D, Guam), Chairperson of the Congressional Asian Pacific American Caucus, joined the conversation to express the appreciation of the Congressional Asian Pacific Caucus for the outstanding service of Ambassador Raul Rabe here in the United States as the Ambassador from the Philippines. He lauded Ambassador Rabe as a quintessential diplomat--courteous and affable and direct, if necessary. Congressman Underwood thanked Ambassador Rabe for being a strong force for a healthy bilateral relationship cognizant of all of the problems but putting them in a framework in which they could be resolved.

Dr. Karl Jackson expressed his appreciation for the extremely brave and public stand in favor of the democratic transition taken by Ambassador Rabe when he was Philippine Consul General in Hawaii. Dr. Jackson then continued the conversation on US-Southeast Asian relations by examining the developments of the previous 30 to 40 years. He noted the following five major changes and provided insights to the future direction of these changes.

1. The growing strength of the individual Southeast Asian nations: Dr. Jackson stated that governments of these nations have become more powerful as they have developed communication and transportation infrastructures. He provided a positive outlook for the future growth in strength of these nations as he does not believe that these nations will regress to become weakened states.
2. Decline in the frequency of attempts to change national borders and the rise of ASEAN, Southeast Asian regionalism: He stated that many of the past divisive tendencies of the ASEAN region have dissipated. Dr. Jackson is also optimistic about the lasting effects of this change. He stated that Southeast Asia will not return to redrawing national borders with the use of force.
3. Rise of Southeast Asian economic strength and political integrity: He stated that despite the current financial crisis, the ASEAN nations have made significant economic developments. In addition, the political structure of the region has changed from a collection of weak, elitist authoritarian structure to more broadly based political structures. Dr. Jackson believes that we will see a shift away from free-wheeling, relationship-oriented state-directed capitalism toward a system in which the role of the government will be more of a regulator than a participant in investment decisions.
4. Decline of the U.S. military presence in Southeast Asia: This decline has been continuous since the Vietnam War and culminated with the closing of the bases in the Philippines. Dr. Jackson noted that there is no great need, at this time, for a massive or even a large US military presence in Southeast Asia but one has to contemplate that possibility.
5. Rise of an increasingly assertive China: China is the fundamental security challenge in the region and if China emerges as a hostile, aggressive difficult power, this will cause difficulties for the ASEAN nations and the U.S. Dr. Jackson advises remaining engaged with China with our eyes open; he stated that the U.S. cannot allow China to assert itself in the ASEAN region.

In the future, Dr. Jackson believes that the U.S. must pay more attention to ASEAN and APEC, as well as to its bilateral defense relationship in the Pacific. The US should also pay more attention to India. Finally, the US should pay more attention to the long-term strategic goal of binding together US interests and ASEAN interests, as the most effective means of maintaining peace and prosperity in the region.

Mr. Fred Brown began his discussion by lauding the Philippines for being at the forefront of democratization -- of political accountability, transparency and openness -- in the Southeast Asian region. He then shifted to his topic, Indochina, and discussed the following common characteristics of Indochina: The heritage of the wars, Immense poverty, and Authoritarianism

He further elaborated to compare Cambodia and Vietnam. He stated that Cambodia has a better environment relative to the other nations as it has benefited from the presence of the United Nations and non-governmental organizations (NGOs). In addition, the press in Cambodia is not completely controlled by the state and while one political party dominates, dissenting political views are heard.

In Vietnam, the population is very young and dynamic; however the elite refuse to accept any diversity of political opinion. According to Dr. Brown, the elections in Indonesia may have a disquieting effect on the entrenched elite in Vietnam, as it is part of a trend in the region to have citizens participate in the political process.

Finally, Dr. Brown discussed the tensions between Vietnam and the Philippines concerning the South China Sea. Although these nations share an interest in controlling China's influence in this area, he believes that tensions may arise between the Philippines and Vietnam concerning the regulation of the South China Sea issues.

Mr. Wise continued the conversation by discussing the following security issues in the region:

• Military capability in Southeast Asia: He stated that military capabilities in the region are in decline due to the financial crisis. This, in turn, increases dependence on the U.S. for support. He suggests a modernization of the armed forces of the region.
• ASEAN as a regional political entity: He stated that ASEAN is in the process of a transformation in the wake of the financial crisis and as its membership becomes more diverse. In this transformation, ASEAN needs to develop a collective response to China and other security questions.
• Chinese diplomatic and military strategy: China is embarking upon long-term military modernization designed not to equal the U.S. but to develop the ability to exploit the weaknesses of its adversaries. As China develops militarily, ASEAN will need to develop policies appropriate to China's increased stance as a regional power.
• U.S. regional security policy: The aforementioned factors effect the U.S. role in the region. The U.S. is committed to maintaining military presence in Southeast Asia; however, it must decide under what circumstances this presence is appropriate. Mr. Wise stressed that Southeast Asia ought to be one of those commitments the United States is always ready to meet because it is important to US interests.