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Hidden Killers 1998: The Global Landmine Crisis Chapter III: Mine-Affected Countries

"A more precise global assessment of the mine problem is needed. . . "
                                     --Report of the UN Secretary-General,
                                        December 11, 1997

The number of landmines in the ground today is, at best, an approximation because there are no accurate global surveys, and information about the presence of landmines has been pieced together from partial records, hearsay, and, unfortunately, accounts of victims. Since the first edition of Hidden Killers was published in 1993, intensive efforts to obtain more accurate data, as well as mine-clearing activities in a number of regions, have resulted in a significant reduction in the estimated number of uncleared landmines around the world. Even the revised estimates, however, are far from perfect, and the number of victims claimed by landmines still remains in the tens of thousands annually. The ICRC continues to estimate that landmines claim some 26,000 civilian victims annually. In the coming years, new surveys to be conducted in accordance with standardized criteria in some of the most severely affected countries should bring greater precision. More important than the actual numbers, however, is the far-reaching impact of even a small number of landmines in preventing access to land and resources. The suspected presence of even a single hidden landmine in a field may render hundreds of acres of farmland dangerous and unusable. The rest of this chapter provides "best estimates," and focuses on the landmine problem in 12 of the most severely affected countries: Afghanistan, Angola, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Cambodia, Croatia, Eritrea, Iraq (Kurdistan), Mozambique, Namibia, Nicaragua, Somalia, and Sudan.

Why the Change?

The 1993 edition of Hidden Killers reported some 65 to 110 million uncleared landmines scattered in 56 countries. The 1994 version of the report stated that as many as 80-110 million antipersonnel mines were scattered in 64 countries. Those numbers were based on the limited information available in national archives and military records of conflicts dating back to World War I in some cases. In many regions, however, even these data were not available, and the number of suspected landmines implanted was extrapolated from the number of landmines produced and/or sales to the region, hearsay, and various unsystematic measurements.

In 1998, a growing consensus is emerging to suggest that the previous estimates of the number of landmines worldwide may have been high (footnote 1). New estimates of the number of uncleared landmines are in the range of 60-70 million. Official and unofficial reports on the landmine problem continue to cite a range of 80-110 million, notwithstanding that some countries experiencing a mine problem in 1994 have since declared that they are no longer affected. The new number has been calculated on the basis of survey material and the experience of demining operations in several key countries. In-depth surveys have been conducted in a number of key regions, and the presence of international organizations, commercial entities and NGOs has helped to refine the data on suspected minefields. In addition, as demining teams have carried out their work, they have been able to verify-- or refute-- the presence of quantities of landmines in any given area. Finally, the relatively low number of armed conflicts and vigorous mine-clearing programs in several countries, notably in Central America, have reversed the trend of previous years when more landmines were laid then removed. In some areas, the combination of peace and intensive demining programs has made so much progress that they offer the hope of being able to declare some mine-affected countries, such as those in Central America, mine-free in the near future.

Country Profiles

About 70 countries currently report having a landmine or UXO problem, according to the UN Landmine Database (UNLDB). That number has grown from the 56 that reported such problems five years ago. This increase reflects, in part, the emergence of newly independent states and the changing borders brought about by the collapse of the former Soviet Union and the former Yugoslavia, as well as the conflicts that have taken place in these areas. Some of the countries reporting landmine or UXO problems include munitions dating back to World War I!(footnote 2)

The countries profiled in this chapter are the 10 with the highest number of landmine casualties (Afghanistan, Angola, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Cambodia, Croatia, Eritrea, Iraq [Kurdistan], Mozambique, Somalia, and Sudan(footnote 3) as well as two others (Namibia and Nicaragua), which illustrate the global nature of the landmine contagion--and the impact that humanitarian demining programs can have. These 12 countries together account for almost 50 percent of the landmines currently deployed in the world. Each section describes the extent of the APL problem, its effect on the country and people, and what is being done to ameliorate it. The examples chosen also illustrate different approaches and models of humanitarian demining, e.g., Afghanistan (no government oversight), and Cambodia (a government-sponsored mine action center). Although the management and organization of the demining programs differ, each has had some successes. The respective demining programs are tailored to the political, economic, geographic and cultural specifics of the country, an important feature of any successful program.

Calculating the Numbers

Although the precise numbers of uncleared landmines worldwide are not known, the following tables are intended to provide a "best estimate" of the magnitude of the problem in the most seriously affected regions and countries. These estimates are based on:

• International databases and surveys, such as those maintained by the UNLDB, and the ICRC registry of mine incidents, which recorded approximately 9,000 victims in more than 40 countries for 1995-96 (footnote 4);
• Responses to a Department of State request for information sent to all U.S. diplomatic missions in January 1998, and updated in May 1998; and
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• Reports from NGOs and other reliable sources.

The information thus acquired was compared with the previous data found in the UNLDB, and led to the following preliminary conclusions:

• The total number of landmines actually laid in the 12 countries profiled will probably never be accurately accounted for.
• The basis for the initial estimates of the 12 countries examined is not precisely known. The previous estimates may have been based on known pre-war stocks of those who employed them or the number that were believed implanted. All the numbers, nonetheless, are estimates.
• Since then, national surveys, UN studies, mature mine clearance programs, and the presence of NGOs and commercial entities in seven of these countries suggest that the original estimates are no longer defensible.
• The recorded number of landmines removed during clearance also does not support the original estimates.

Thus, comparing the various available database statistics and the results of demining operations in each of the 12 countries produced a method for revising the original estimates published in the UNLDB.

Using the revised set of numbers (both a low and a high estimate, where applicable) for each of the 12 countries, a percentage was calculated to show the difference between the number in the UNLDB and that reflected in Hidden Killers 1998. This percentage was calculated by taking the difference, in turn, between the UN figure and the Hidden Killers 1998 low and high figures, then averaging the sum of these two and taking the result as a percentage of the UN figure. Then, by averaging the percentage difference for the 12 countries, a conservative 30 percent reduction in the number of landmines from the UN figure was derived (Table 2). If only the figures for the seven (of the 12) countries with the most mature demining programs are used, the overall reduction is almost 49 percent.

 

 

Table 2. Analysis of Case Study Data

Country	UNLDB	HK98 Case Study		Difference Between UNLDB and HK 98		Average Difference (%)**
		Low	High	Low	High
Angola*	15,000,000	6,000,000	15,000,000	9,000,000	0	.300
Eritrea*	1,000,000	500,000	1,000,000	500,000	0	.250
Mozambique*	3,000,000	1,000,000	1,000,000	2,000,000	2,000,000	.667
Namibia	50,000	50,000	50,000	0	0	.0
Somalia	1,000,000	1,000,000	1,000,000	0	0	.0
Sudan	1,000,000	1,000,00	1,000,000	0	0	.0
Afghanistan*	10,000,000	5,000,000	7,000,000	5,000,000	3,000,000	.400
Cambodia*	6,000,000	4,000,000	6,000,000	2,000,000	0	.167
Bosnia-Herzegovina*	3,000,000	600,000	1,000,000	2,400,000	2,000,000	.733
Croatia*	3,000,000	400,000	400,000	2,600,000	2,600,000	.867
Nicaragua	108,297	85,000	85,000	23,297	23,297	.215
Iraq (Kurdistan)	10,000,000	10,000,000	10,000,000	0	0	.0
TOTAL	53,158,297	29,635,000	43,535,000	23,523,297	9,623,297	.300

*Countries with more mature demining programs

**The average difference (%) is the mean between the high and low percentages

 

Table 3 shows the changes that would occur worldwide if the data derived in Table 2 are extrapolated to the entire UNLDB.

Table 3. Revised Worldwide Data

	HK 98 Low	HK 98 High
UNLDB Total	108,738,377	108,738,377
Case Study Reductions	23,523,297	9,623,297
Subtotal	85,215,080	99,115,080
Apply the 30%	- 25,553,551	-29,721,761
REVISED UNLDB TOTAL	59,661,529	69,393,319

Obviously, these notional results represent a dramatic downward change in the estimated global total of the landmine threat, from 80-110 million to about 60-70 million (footnote 5).

For a slightly different perspective, Table 4 depicts the regional apportionment of the revised landmine estimates using the figures reported for Hidden Killers 1998, without application of the 30 percent factor.

Table 4. Regionally Apportioned Landmine Estimates

Region	UNLDB	HK 98 Low	HK 98 High
Africa	21,818,250	11,310,000	22,246,000
Asia	29,776,193	22,975,000	26,995,000
Europe	7,793,842	2,876,842	3,276,900
Latin America	241,297	194,000	235,500
Middle East	49,108,795	49,474,988	49,501,193
TOTAL	108,738,377	86,830,830	102,468,593

In May 1998, a group of NGOs met in Brussels to work out a plan for conducting level one general surveys using standardized criteria for 12 of the most heavily mine-infested countries in an intensive 18-month effort. In cooperation with the UNMAS, these surveys, when combined with the information being developed in the UNLDB, should bring greater precision to landmine estimates and humanitarian demining needs.

The 12 country profiles follow next, presented in alphabetical order by region. Each profile begins with a brief introduction to the country, followed by the nature of the landmine problem, the country's response to the problem, a description of international support, and, finally, the outlook for the future.

 

 

 

Footnotes

1. See especially the Foreword by Colin King (ed.), Jane's Mines and Mine Clearance, 2nd edition, 1997-1998 (1997), and Jarvis D. Lynch, Jr., "Landmines, Lies, and Other Phenomena," Naval Institute Proceedings, Vol. 124/5/1,143, May 1998.

2. The Government of Panama now claims that certain areas contain munitions from World War I through the Vietnam War. Serge F. Kovaleski, "A Dangerous American Legacy. Acres of U.S. Military Land in Panama Are Littered With Unexploded Munitions," The Washington Post, April 2, 1998, A27.

3. ICRC, Antipersonnel Mines, op. cit., 1.

4. Idem.

5. Applying the more aggressive 49 percent, the estimated range would be 44-51 million.

[End of Section]

Next page
Country profiles: Afghanistan | Angola | Bosnia-Herzegovina | Cambodia | Croatia | Eritrea
                                   Iraq (Kurdistan) | Mozambique | Namibia | Nicaragua | Somalia | Sudan
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