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Mitigating Climate Change

The Climate Change Action Plan (CCAP), announced by President Clinton and Vice President Gore in October 1993, responds to the threat of global climate change and moves the U.S. economy toward environmentally sound economic growth into the next century.

Studies have shown that there are profitable and low-cost opportunities throughout the United States for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, many of these opportunities have gone unrealized, frequently because of informational, regulatory, financial, and institutional barriers that prevent widespread investment in energy efficiency. The CCAP is applying innovative solutions that are beginning to overcome many of these barriers, aligning market forces with the environmental imperative to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Although originally focused on important early reductions by the year 2000, the CCAP is building emission reductions that grow over time and provide even larger benefits in later years.

The CCAP consists of over forty programs that are combining a variety of public- and private-sector approaches aimed at reducing emissions profitably while stimulating greater energy efficiency, commercializing renewable-energy technologies, and improving U.S. industrial, agricultural, and forest productivity. Through CCAP programs the United States is:

• Preserving the Environment --The CCAP is comprehensively addressing all major greenhouse gases in all sectors of the economy. Additional environmental benefits include preventing ozone and particulate air pollution and reducing solid and hazardous wastes.
• Enhancing Economic Growth --A successful CCAP will reduce energy costs, improve productivity, and generate larger markets for energy-efficient products and services.
• Building Partnerships--The CCAP relies heavily on the active voluntary participation of the private sector and other partners to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and generate larger markets for energy-efficient products and services.
• Involving the Public--Federal agencies solicited the public's views while developing the CCAP and while preparing this evaluation of the CCAP.
• Encouraging International Emission Reductions --Because climate change is a global rather than a national issue, the CCAP established the U.S. Initiative on Joint Implementation and the U.S. Country Studies Program to help other countries reduce their greenhouse gas emissions cost-effectively.

This chapter summarizes the progress of existing and new CCAP programs and related programs not included in the 1993 CCAP. It then evaluates individual CCAP programs and presents detailed projections of their reductions of carbon dioxide, methane, and other greenhouse gas emissions and the effects of those reductions for 2000, 2010, and 2020. The final portion of this chapter discusses the U.S. Initiative on Joint Implementation.

Projected Impacts of the CCAP in the Year 2000 76 MMTCE of annual reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, equivalent to the emissions from 60 million cars. $10 billion of annual energy bill savings for consumers and businesses, shifting the nation's resources away from unnecessary energy expenditures. 2 quadrillion Btus of energy conserved annually, equivalent to over 300 million barrels of oil, or 100 million tons of coal, or two trillion cubic feet of natural gas. 100,000 tons of annual nitrogen oxide reductions, improving air quality and protecting public health.

Action Plan Summary Review

In late 1995, the United States initiated a review and update of the 1993 Climate Change Action Plan (CCAP). An interagency review group, chaired by the White House Council on Environmental Quality, included participants from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Departments of Energy (DOE), Commerce (DOC), Transportation (DOT), and Agriculture (USDA).

Of the twenty-five submissions the group received in response to a public notice in August 1995, some comments addressed a broad range of analytical issues concerning the CCAP review, while others suggested additional actions for inclusion in the 1993 CCAP update. Comments were also received during a public hearing on September 22, 1995.

The comments from the public and the interagency review have formed the basis for this evaluation of the CCAP. The interagency review has reassessed the impacts of all CCAP actions and provides a new, integrated assessment of the 1993 CCAP. As requested in the guidelines of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), this evaluation extends projections to the year 2020, although uncertainties become greater in more distant years.

Evaluation of Plan Actions

The CCAP evaluation built on the work of implementing agencies to track and evaluate their programs. Each federal agency maintains a set of performance measures and goals for the CCAP programs it administers, which is used to track and assess progress for each program on an ongoing basis.

DOE's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy conducts a rigorous process to assess both potential benefits of climate change programs and progress on an ongoing basis. Initiated by DOE in the earliest stages of CCAP, this performance, progress, and outcomes activity has been subsumed by subsequent requirements for all government programs under the National Government Performance and Results Act. Specifically, DOE estimates expected carbon emission reductions and other benefits of each program using a variety of methods and conducts an extensive peer review of the estimates and results. In addition, DOE sets annual performance goals and measures progress toward those goals--including tracking partner accomplishments--for each program. This information is incorporated in the DOE Performance Agreement with the President. Specific program goals and accomplishments are available from the individual programs. For example, the 1996 Rebuild America Fall Forum Proceedings were published, illustrating a number of partner successes. Likewise, DOE published the Climate Challenge Annual Report, which includes an account of program achievements.

EPA has established a similar set of rigorous performance measures and goals. EPA monitors and evaluates program accomplishments based on extensive information collection efforts. For example, the Green Lights program has detailed information on investments and energy savings from over fourteen thousand completed energy-efficiency projects that have been made by Green Lights partners, and continually uses the information to improve the program's performance and more accurately assess its future potential. In addition to tracking greenhouse gas emission reductions, EPA monitors technology markets, energy savings, energy-efficiency investments, and partner participation. Targets and projected impacts are based on a combination of work with experts in related fields, partner input, and program experience. EPA's performance measures are used to comply with in the National Government Performance and Results Act, as well as in periodic public reports, including the upcoming annual report of EPA's Atmospheric Pollution Prevention Division. Appendix A of this report contains further information on each program's targets, accomplishments, and contacts.

As part of the interagency review, each agency has comprehensively reevaluated its performance targets and has reassessed the future impact of its CCAP programs. Agencies reviewed program performance through the end of 1996 and considered the impact of recent funding cuts. Based on continual dialogue with program partners and the public, agencies now have much better information with which to evaluate the possible future effectiveness of the programs than they did in the past. Revised program performance estimates were integrated and modeled to determine the comprehensive impact of these programs on fossil fuel emissions.

Overview of Progress Toward Meeting CCAP Goals

Many 1993 CCAP programs have been successful at establishing partnerships and achieving measurable energy and cost savings. Over five thousand organizations from around the country are participating in CCAP programs, and new partnerships are being formed at a brisk pace. Because of the time needed to develop the programs, build partnerships, and allow partners to make cost-effective investments, it takes most of the programs three to five years to begin to achieve substantial carbon reductions. For example, Figure 4-1 shows the rapidly increasing accomplishments of one of the older voluntary programs--Green Lights, which was launched in 1991. Other, newer programs are following similar pathways, with major reductions expected by 2000 and even greater reductions by 2010 and beyond.

However, for two reasons the 1993 CCAP will not achieve its objective of reducing greenhouse gases to 1990 levels by the year 2000. First, due to such factors as lower-than-expected fuel prices and higher-than-expected economic growth and electricity demand, the analysis used to develop the 1993 CCAP significantly underestimated the reductions needed to return emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2000. And second, the 1993 CCAP programs have not been fully funded, limiting their effectiveness.

As stated in the 1993 CCAP: "A substantial degree of uncertainty accompanies any attempt to project future emission levels. The analysis supporting the plan represents a best estimate under the most likely scenario, but we recognize that these estimates could vary by a significant degree under other plausible assumptions." The factors that have contributed to higher baseline emission projections are discussed in more detail later in this chapter.

The 1993 CCAP estimated that, assuming full funding, the programs would achieve reductions of 108.6 MMTCE in the year 2000. In 1996 and 1997, however, only 60 percent of the funding requested by the President for the CCAP programs was approved by Congress, as shown in Table 4-1. Based on current funding levels, the revised CCAP is expected to reduce emissions by 76 million metric tons of carbon equivalent (MMTCE) in the year 2000--or 70 percent of the reductions projected in the 1993 CCAP. By the year 2000, the CCAP is expected to save $10 billion in annual energy bills (1995 dollars).

The revised CCAP is projected to achieve reductions of about 169 MMTCE in the year 2010 and about 230 MMTCE in 2020. Annual energy savings are projected to grow to $50 billion in the year 2010 (1995 dollars). The projected impact of the CCAP on U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, based on current funding levels, is shown in Figure 4-2. Consistent with the level of uncertainty in the 1993 CCAP, and the difficulty with forecasting longer-term impacts, the analysis supporting the revised CCAP (i.e., this Climate Action Report) represents the best estimate of what the programs can achieve. This estimate assumes continuation of funding at least at current levels, as well as continued, aggressive program implementation. President Clinton once again is requesting full funding of CCAP programs for 1998 to achieve greater reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

Several additional factors contribute to the new projections of CCAP program impacts, including: revised utility forecasts (which alter the impact of projected electricity savings on greenhouse gas emissions); revised estimates of the relative impact of some gases on global warming (i.e., global warming potentials); and a better understanding of what each program can achieve. Furthermore, legislative riders to recent budget bills have prevented the timely implementation of energy appliance standards (Action 7) and have precluded DOT from pursuing its tire-labeling program (Action 22).

Additions to the Action Plan

In addition to reviewing progress of existing programs, this Climate Action Report (CAR) contains six new programs. These actions cover a range of areas, from substantially reducing long-lived perfluorocarbon emissions to expanding market opportunities for energy-efficient light bulbs and windows.

Environmental Stewardship Initiative

This initiative significantly expands activities under Action 40 of the 1993 CCAP (Narrow the Use of High GWP Chemicals). It is designed to limit emissions of perfluorocarbons and hydrofluorocarbons, which are potent greenhouse gases, in the three following industrial applications: semiconductor production, electrical transmission and distribution systems, and magnesium casting.

Emission reductions are believed to be possible through inexpensive and cost-effective means. In all cases, the principles of pollution prevention are being applied to reduce emissions. EPA has initiated a cooperative effort with the semiconductor industry and has begun talks with the electrical and magnesium industries. The combined effect of these new environmental stewardship programs is expected to result in 6.5 MMTCE of reduced emissions by 2000, and 10.0 MMTCE by 2010.

Construction of Energy-Efficient Commercial and Industrial Buildings

Despite the wide availability of reliable, energy-efficient technologies and building designs, most builders and architects are not taking advantage of these energy cost-saving opportunities. Several barriers in the current buildings market are perpetuating the construction of inefficient buildings. Most notably, builders and designers usually do not own and operate their buildings and are therefore not responsible for paying the energy bills. Increasing the construction costs to achieve long-term energy savings, even when there is a quick payback of only a couple of years, is not feasible, unless purchasers and financiers of buildings have clear and reliable information regarding the cost savings they can expect.

Through their Rebuild America and Energy Star Buildings programs, DOE and EPA will work with the financial community and with builders, architects, owners, occupants, and operators to encourage the construction of energy-efficient commercial and industrial buildings. DOE and EPA will also develop a system to differentiate buildings that offer energy cost savings from inefficient buildings. This action is expected to lead to savings of 1.1 MMTCE by 2010.

Expand Markets for Next-Generation Lighting Products

This action will expand markets for energy-efficient lighting products through coordinated federal programs primarily targeting residential lighting. It is based on a comprehensive strategy to convert incandescent lighting to energy-efficient alternatives by delivering a portfolio of lighting products to meet a range of needs over an extended time horizon. The action's objectives are to promote the use and improvement of compact fluorescent lighting (CFL) products; encourage the conversion of high-energy-using fixtures to dedicated CFL fixtures; and fill a key product gap with a low-cost, drop-in replacement for standard incandescent light bulbs. This action is expected to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 0.2 MMTCE in 2000 and 0.7 MMTCE in 2010.

Superwindow Collaborative

This initiative aims to double the energy efficiency of the average window sold in 2005. It would improve the heating properties of windows sold in cooler climates by increasing their average R (insulating) value, and the cooling properties of windows sold in warmer climates by switching from clear to spectrally selective cool glazings. The strategy is to work with a variety of groups to create the market pull for these products and then help all manufacturers, both small and large, respond to the new market opportunities. This action is expected to yield savings of 0.4 MMTCE by 2010.

Fuel Cells Initiative

DOE is developing a low-cost 50-kilowatt fuel cell that uses reformed natural gas to produce hydrogen fuel to power commercial buildings. While DOE also sponsors fuel cell development as part of its advanced automotive technology program, this action is part of DOE's Space Conditioning program. Four contracts are in place that focus on research and development of fuel cells for buildings: membrane research, natural gas reforming, catalyst development of carbon monoxide tolerance, and bipolar plate development. This action is expected to lead to savings of 0.1 MMTCE by 2010.

Green Power Network

Accessible through DOE's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy home page, the Internet-based Green Power Network provides and exchanges information on successful green power programs to encourage electricity suppliers and customers to form green power supply and buyer groups. Green Power Network includes links to utilities, power marketers, public entities, and consumer and environmental organizations that have already developed or are interested in developing green power programs. No emission reductions have been estimated for this action.

Pollution-Prevention Programs Outside of the Action Plan

Although not part of the CCAP, several additional federal policies and programs, state and local government initiatives, and private-sector actions fundamentally contribute to the CCAP's success by providing important emission reductions. These initiatives provide examples of successful strategies, additional impetus for market changes, and enhanced receptivity for CCAP activities. Only a few of the many initiatives by the public and private sectors are identified here as examples.

Non-CCAP Federal Programs

The CCAP builds on important policies and programs authorized by DOE's Energy Policy Act of 1992 (EPAct) that accelerate the development and deployment of renewable-energy technologies, expand efficiency standards and incentives, and encourage the use of alternative fuels in the transportation sector. DOT's Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991 (ISTEA) provides for improved operation of the transportation system and gives state and local governments increased flexibility in spending federal funds for a variety of projects that would help reduce greenhouse gas emissions. And EPA's Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 promote enhanced energy conservation and the use of clean fuels, such as natural gas.

Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles . In an effort to reduce U.S. oil use and cut urban air pollution and carbon dioxide emissions from personal transportation vehicles, in 1993 the Clinton Administration established its Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles (PNGV). This path-breaking initiative joins the resources of the federal government and its laboratories with those of the U.S. automakers in a new partnership aimed at producing the product and manufacturing innovations needed to significantly enhance fuel efficiency. PNGV's goal is to produce the prototype for a new generation of vehicles that can achieve three times the current fuel efficiency while maintaining performance, utility, and affordability, as well as meeting all present and forthcoming safety and emission requirements. Funding for PNGV across several federal agencies has been provided at the following levels: $263 million in FY 1996, $250 million in FY 1997, and $281 million proposed for FY 1998.

EPA, DOT, and USDA Programs . In 1991, EPA had initiated a set of voluntary programs to conserve energy and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In the 1993 CCAP, EPA expanded its Green Lights and Energy Star Buildings programs, which increase the energy efficiency of commercial buildings. Also in 1993, EPA expanded its Natural Gas STAR and AgSTAR programs (with USDA), which reduce methane emissions.

USDA expanded both its forest research and management and its fertilizer improvement programs, which decrease greenhouse gas emissions in addition to other benefits. And DOT added activities to its implementation of the ISTEA aimed at improving U.S. ground transportation systems and developing more energy-efficient cars.

DOE Programs. DOE has a long history of developing energy-efficiency and renewable-energy technologies and sponsoring programs that reduce greenhouse gas emissions. These core programs were in place before the 1993 CCAP, and many were expanded in the CCAP. Because they will contribute major greenhouse gas reductions, these programs are a critical component of the U.S. response to climate change.

For years DOE has partnered with the buildings industry, with manufacturers, and with its national laboratories to develop advanced lighting technology, electrochromic windows, high-performance solar water and space-heating systems, and other energy-efficient building technologies. Advanced building designs, more efficient refrigerator compressors and windows, electronic ballasts, and flame-retention heat oil burners installed through 1996 are responsible for net consumer cost savings of over $25 billion.

DOE has also helped industries develop and adopt technologies that are estimated to save $3 billion annually in direct energy costs. Improved diesel engines, industrial system improvements to furnaces, cogeneration, recuperators, computer-controlled ovens, textile hyperfiltration, and irrigation systems are only a few examples from the long list of improvements in industrial energy efficiency that have prevented considerable carbon-equivalent greenhouse emissions from entering the atmosphere. DOE's Industries of the Future program aligns federal investments in technology research, development, and deployment with the needs and expectations of technology users in the private sector. By applying energy-efficiency and renewable-energy technologies to the most energy-intensive industries (pulp and paper, steel, metal casting, glass, aluminum, chemicals, and refining), Industries of the Future is expected to improve U.S. industrial competitiveness by cutting energy costs by over $5 billion by 2010.

In the transportation sector, DOE's Clean Cities program is helping fleet owners in urban areas use alternative vehicles and fuels. By the end of 1995, forty-three cities signed agreements involving more than twelve hundred organizations and half the nation's ozone nonattainment areas, as defined by the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990. These cities are expected to add more than 300,000 alternative-fuel vehicles by the year 2000. By the end of 1996, an additional ten cities and four hundred participants joined the program. DOE also has considered new designs for electric and other alternative-fuel vehicles.

In the utility sector, DOE has researched and facilitated deployment of photovoltaic systems, biomass power, geothermal electric, wind energy, fuel cells, more efficient coal technology, advanced combined-cycle gas, advanced light water reactors, and other systems that will decrease the level of fossil fuel use.

DOE has initiated a program to develop and demonstrate technologies to maintain the continued safe, reliable, and economic operation of existing U.S. nuclear power plants that will also support possible relicensing for an additional twenty years of operation. The 109 U.S. commercial nuclear power plants currently provide more than one-fifth of the nation's electricity, displacing a substantial amount of greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels. Without license renewal of these power plants for an additional twenty years of operation, U.S. nuclear capacity will decline significantly by 2015. This new DOE initiative is working to develop technologies to: (1) inspect, characterize, and manage the effects of aging on nuclear plant systems, structures, and components that affect safety and operation; (2) improve plant operation and control, relieve critical equipment obsolescence issues, and enhance plant performance and economics, while maintaining safety; and (3) reduce the costs and regulatory uncertainties for license renewal.

DOE is currently completing its research and development activities for Nuclear Regulatory Commission certification for next-generation nuclear power plants. Two of the three advanced-technology nuclear plant designs have already been certified and are now available on the international market.

DOE's Energy-Related Inventions and Innovations program has funded technology developments that have provided over a half billion dollars in energy savings since the mid-1970s. The Institutional Conservation Programs have helped schools and hospitals make cost-effective improvements in their heating systems and other operations. And with considerable support from the Department of Defense (DOD), DOE has operated the Federal Energy Management Program, which is expected to reduce the energy use of all federal agencies by 20 percent in 2000, potentially saving over $400 million annually.

Private-Sector Initiatives

The active participation of the private sector and other partners is crucial to the 1993 CCAP's success. Beyond their involvement in CCAP programs, companies and organizations throughout the United States are improving their energy and environmental performances in a number of ways:

• Several companies have received widespread recognition for their successful companywide approach to reducing manufacturing energy use. These success stories have encouraged other firms to match their progress.
• Companies that manufacture or market energy-efficient or renewable-energy products or services, and the trade associations that represent them, promote market awareness of the benefits of their products.
• Many industrial and other trade associations have initiatives to promote broader application of efficient and renewable options.
• Several professional societies develop guidelines for energy-efficient practices for everything from lighting to boiler maintenance. They also provide training, conferences, and other venues for reporting on developments in energy efficiency.
• Nonprofit organizations are actively involved in educating the public about the importance of improving energy-efficiency and renewable-energy investments.
• Many collaboratives allow private- and/or public-sector organizations to join forces to improve their energy efficiency. Recent or ongoing partnerships include the establishment of research institutes, bulk-purchase offers for equipment that exceeds currently available efficiency levels, and efforts to overcome specific market barriers.

State and Local Initiatives

In addition to their direct contributions to many 1993 CCAP programs, state and local governments have developed strong energy programs. These initiatives benefit from their two decades of experience as the implementors of the Low-Income Weatherization Assistance Program and the State Energy Program.

State government initiatives address all sectors of the economy and include education and information, technical assistance, energy audit, and research and development programs, as well as financial incentives for efficiency or renewable-energy investments. These initiatives helped to create the widespread energy-efficiency expertise and awareness of services that provided the basis for important demand-side management programs.

Several states have implemented commercial building codes that exceed current national model codes or have added features such as post-construction confirmation of the energy performance of buildings. Local governments may have their own energy offices or may encourage more efficient energy use though their buildings, transportation, economic development, or other support offices.

To build upon state and local initiatives and all of the CCAP's actions, federal officials and state energy offices, environmental agencies, and utility commissions are developing new working relationships. The intent is for the federal government to provide support to states and localities to build expertise in climate change policy issues and to provide a central federal point of contact for greenhouse gas mitigation efforts. States have been involved in the implementation planning process from the beginning, bringing their considerable expertise to these issues, particularly as related to energy efficiency and renewable technologies.

Thirty-five states currently operate industrial and commercial efficiency programs. They have significant expertise working with builders, manufacturers, utilities, public utility commissions (who regulate utilities and natural gas distribution companies), and building owners. For example, many utility demand-side management programs have been initiated through the joint efforts of utilities and state energy offices. State programs have helped hundreds of industrial and commercial energy users to convert from fossil fuels to low-cost biomass and other renewable technologies, have organized photovoltaic technologies to work in new applications, and have coordinated with state regulatory commissions and utilities to implement integrated resource planning, opening up new opportunities for efficiency and renewable technologies.

State and Local Outreach Program

EPA's State and Local Climate Change Outreach Program provides similar support. Its "one-stop shopping" efforts are designed to encourage states and localities to develop and implement cost-effective greenhouse gas reduction strategies in addition to those identified in the CCAP. The outreach program builds capacity in climate change issues and helps integrate CCAP with other planning efforts, such as the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, EPAct, and ISTEA. The program provides technical and financial assistance to states and localities to conduct greenhouse gas inventories, to develop state and city action plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, to study the impacts of climate change, and to demonstrate innovative mitigation policies. Other efforts include providing training workshops and guidance documents.

To date, thirty states have prepared or have nearly completed inventories, and twenty have completed or are developing action plans. Forty-one cities have joined the Cities for Climate Protection Campaign, and nearly twenty states and localities have completed projects that range from telecommuting demonstrations to studies of the impact of sea level rise on land use and development policies.

The CCAP did not quantify the impact of the program on emissions because its primary purpose is to build climate change capacity and expertise at the state and local levels. Several successful demonstration projects, however, have been expanded and/or continued, and their reduction potentials have been estimated. Current projections are that the program will reduce greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 1.9 MMTCE in 2000 and 4.2 MMTCE in 2010.