Kosovo

Executive Summary

Despite being one of Europe’s youngest and poorest countries, Kosovo has recorded positive economic growth rates, averaging almost four percent, during the last decade.  Kosovo has potential to attract foreign direct investment, but that potential is constrained by failure to address several serious structural issues including: limited regional and global economic integration; political instability and interference in the economy; corruption; an unreliable energy supply; a large informal sector; difficulty establishing property rights, and tenuous rule of law, including a glaring lack of contract enforcement.  The country’s ability to sustain growth relies significantly on international financial support and remittances.

The COVID-19 pandemic is unlikely to lead to significant permanent changes in investment policies.  As of April 2020, the government had enacted several emergency relief measures that did not require legislative changes.  These measures are all temporary and focused on maintaining employment levels and helping businesses maintain liquidity.  As such, they do not affect the broader investment policy environment.  The government also announced a package of economic recovery measures, but as of April 2020, it was still working on finalizing the package.

Many international financial institutions have forecasted economic growth rates in Kosovo to fall from a pre-pandemic projection of four percent positive growth to a post-pandemic contraction of up to five percent.  This includes the IMF (-5 percent), World Bank (-4.5 percent) and European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (-4.5 percent).

In 2019, net flow of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Kosovo was estimated at USD 292 million, close to the 10-year annual average of USD 296 million.  The stock of portfolio investment in 2019 totaled USD 2.05 billion, with equity securities of USD 1.67 billion, and debt securities of USD 385 million.  Real estate and leasing activities are the largest beneficiaries of FDI, followed by financial services and energy.  The food, IT, infrastructure, and energy sectors are growing and are likely to attract new FDI.

Though justice sector remains weak in implementation, Kosovo’s laws and regulations are consistent with international benchmarks for supporting and protecting investment.  Kosovo has a flat corporate tax of 10 percent.  In 2016, Kosovo ratified a strategic investment law intended to ease market access for investors in key sectors, and the government partnered with USAID and other international donors to launch the Kosovo Credit Guarantee Fund, which improves access to credit.  With USAID assistance, the Government of Kosovo continued a series of business environment reforms which contributed to improving Kosovo’s ranking and score in the World Bank Doing Business Report over the years.  In the 2020 Doing Business Report, Kosovo ranked 57 out of 190 economics surveyed and was recognized as one of the top 20 most improved economies in the world.

Property rights and interests are enforced, but weaknesses in the legal system and difficulties associated with establishing title to real estate, in part due to competing claims arising from the history of conflict with Serbia, can make enforcement difficult.  Kosovo has a good legal framework for protecting intellectual property rights (IPR), but enforcement remains weak, largely due to lack of resources.  While IPR theft occurs in Kosovo, it is not widespread.

All legal, regulatory, and accounting systems in Kosovo are modeled on EU standards and international best practices.  Publicly-listed companies are required to comply with international accounting standards.  Investors should note that despite regulatory requirements for public consultation and establishment of an online platform for public comments (http://konsultimet.rks-gov.net), some business groups complain that regulations are passed with little substantive discussion or stakeholder input.

Recently, the political environment has been characterized by short electoral cycles and prolonged periods of caretaker governments.  (For example, the current government, formed in February 2020 collapsed 50 days later and has been in caretaker status since).  While the environment in the country is growing increasingly politicized, the Embassy is not aware of any damage to commercial projects or installations.

The public consistently ranks Kosovo’s high unemployment rate (officially 25.7 percent in 2019) as among its greatest concerns.  Unemployment levels for first-time job seekers and women are considerably higher than the official rate.  Many experts cite a skills gap and high reservation wage as significant contributing factors.

Despite the challenges, Kosovo has attracted a number of significant investors including several international firms and U.S. franchises.  Some investors have been attracted to Kosovo’s relatively young population, low labor costs, relative proximity to the EU market, and natural resources.  Kosovo does provide preferential access to the EU market through a Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA).