Elections and Political Participation
Recent Elections: In 2015, the government decided direct elections during the year would not be possible due to security concerns; it subsequently developed a plan for indirect elections by electoral colleges selected by clan elders. Indirect elections for the federal parliament’s two houses concluded in January 2017, and parliament elected the president in February 2017. Indirect elections for the House of the People expanded the electorate from 135 elders to 14,025 electoral college delegates selected by clan elders; 51 delegates selected by clan elders were responsible for voting on each lower house seat, and electoral colleges were required to include 30 percent women (16 members) and 10 youth.
In 2012 the Transitional Federal Government completed the 2011 Roadmap for Ending the Transition, collaborating with representatives of Puntland, Galmudug, ASWJ, and the international community. The process included drafting a provisional federal constitution, forming an 825-member National Constituent Assembly that ratified the provisional constitution, selecting a 275-member federal parliament, and holding speakership and presidential elections. The government has not yet reviewed and amended the provisional constitution and submitted it for approval in a national referendum.
Somaliland laws prevent citizens in its region from participating in Somalia-related processes, although the federal parliament includes members “representing” Somaliland.
In 2012 Puntland’s constituent assembly overwhelmingly adopted a state constitution that enshrines a multiparty political system. In January 2019 Said Abdullahi Deni won 35 of 66 parliamentary votes in the third and last round of the region’s presidential election process. He gained four more votes than his closest challenger, General Asad Osman Abdullahi. Incumbent President Abdiweli Mohamed Ali “Gaas” lost in the first round and accepted the results.
The South West State parliament was formed in 2015 following the 2014 state formation conference, during which traditional elders and delegates elected Sharif Hassan Sheikh Adam as the state’s first president. Elections were scheduled for November 2018 but were delayed until December 2018. Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed “Laftagareen” won in the first round. Opposition candidates accused the federal government of manipulating the result and orchestrating the arrest of candidate and former al-Shabaab leader Mukhtar Robow (see section 1.e.). At least a dozen persons were killed in violence on the margins of protests the weekend before the vote, including a state member of parliament and a young boy, although the South West State government investigation reported only four deaths.
In July 2019 a 2017 political settlement between the Galmudug interim administration and the ASWJ to consolidate the parliament, the cabinet, and security forces broke down, as the date for state elections approached. Protracted negotiations between stakeholders took place in June and July 2019, leading to a negotiated clan-based power-sharing model and timetable for elections to the 89-member state legislature. State parliamentary elections took place in November and December 2019. On February 2, Ahmed Abdi Kariye “Qoor” became Galmudug’s chief executive after a contentious parliamentary process.
In 2016 Hirshabelle was created as a federal member state (FMS) via a mediated union of the Hawiye clan majority Hiiran and Middle Shabelle regions. On October 31, following a politically contested process with allegations of federal government interference, Hirshabelle elected its 99-member state assembly along the lines of a clan-based power-sharing formula. On November 11, the assembly voted in Hirshabelle Vice President and Hawiye Abgaal subclan member Abdullahi Hussein “Guudlaawe” as president. The state presidential election outcome upset a delicate clan-based power-sharing arrangement. Hawadle factions under Abubaker Warsame Huud contested the election outcome, including with threats of force to reverse the outcome.
In 2013 federal government and Jubaland delegates signed an agreement that resulted in the government’s formal recognition of the newly formed Jubaland administration. Ahmed Mohamed Islam “Madobe” was selected as president in a 2013 conference of elders and representatives and re-selected in August 2015. In August 2019 Madobe received 56 of 74 votes in Jubaland’s parliament amid claims that he manipulated the selection of the state’s electoral committee and attempted to intimidate would-be rivals. On April 23, these two rivals signed a “coalition government” agreement with Madobe, withdrawing their claims to the presidency.
In 2017 Somalilanders elected ruling Kulmiye Party candidate Muse Bihi president with 55 percent of the vote, to runner-up and opposition Wadani Party member Abdurahman Mohamud Abdullahi’s 40 percent. Vice president and Kulmiye Party member Abdurrahman Abdallahi Ismail (Saylici) has served in his position since 2010, having won re-election in 2017.
Somaliland has a bicameral parliament consisting of an appointed 86-member House of Elders, known as the Guurti, and an elected 82-member House of Representatives with proportional regional representation. The last elections for the House of Representatives took place in 2005, and elections are 10 years overdue. On August 24, Somaliland’s three political parties, Kulmiye, Waddani, and For Justice and Development, signed an agreement with the National Electoral Commission to hold local and parliamentary elections by May 2021. According to media reporting, the agreed plan is scheduled to have elections first take place at the municipal level to pave the way for House of Representatives elections.
Al-Shabaab prohibited citizens in the areas it controlled from changing their al-Shabaab administrators. Some al-Shabaab administrators, however, consulted local traditional elders on specific matters and allowed pre-existing district committees to remain in place.
Political Parties and Political Participation: The provisional constitution states that every citizen has the right to take part in public affairs, and this right includes forming political parties, participating in their activities, and seeking election for any position within a political party. In 2016 the president signed a law on political parties that created the first framework for legal political parties since 1969, when former president Siad Barre banned political activities after taking power in a coup. The law required all politicians to join a political party by the end of 2018. As of December, 106 national parties had provisionally registered with the National Independent Electoral Commission. Prior to the law, several political associations had operated as parties. The September 17 agreement reached by the National Consultative Council (NCC) of federal government and FMS leaders for a model and timeline for federal parliamentary and presidential elections in 2021 stated no political parties would be participating.
The Somaliland constitution and electoral legislation limits the number of political parties to three and establishes conditions pertaining to their political programs, finances, and constitutions.
Throughout the year political parties complained regarding the difficulties of gathering for meetings in Mogadishu. Registered national political parties complained that FMS administrations continued to prevent them from opening regional offices.
Participation of Women and Members of Minority Groups: No laws limit the participation of women or members of minority groups in the political process, and they did participate. Cultural factors, however, limited their participation. While signatories to the 2011 Roadmap for Ending the Transition agreed women should hold at least 30 percent of the seats in the federal parliament, women were elected to only 14 percent of the 275 seats in parliament in 2012. The 30 percent quota met significant resistance in the 2016-17 elections from clan elders, political leaders, and religious leaders, but women’s representation in parliament increased to 24 percent. On October 1, the NCC released implementation details on the model and timeline for federal elections in 2021, in which they reaffirmed the 30 percent women’s quota, despite continued resistance from some stakeholders, and expanded that quota to apply to clan caucuses, implementation committees, and the Dispute Resolution Committee. On October 21, the parliament confirmed a new 26-member cabinet, which included four women, reflecting a steady proportion compared to prior years.
In August, Beledweyne Mayor Safiya Jimale, appointed in May 2019 as the town’s first female mayor, was removed under unclear circumstances but replaced with another female mayor, Nadar Tabah Malin.
Civil society, minority clans, Puntland authorities, and some national opposition figures called for the abolition of the “4.5 formula” by which political representation was divided among the four major clans, and the marginalized “minority” clans were combined as the remaining “0.5” share. This system allocated to marginalized clans and other groups a fixed number of seats in the federal parliament that advocates from these communities continue to claim underrepresents the real size of these populations. The country conducted its last publicly available census in 1975, so the validity of these criticisms remains unclear. Under the provisional constitution, the electoral process was intended to be direct, thus transitioning from the 4.5 formula, but during the year federal and regional leaders decided to maintain the 4.5 formula in determining lower house composition.
Somaliland had one woman in its 86-member House of Representatives. Women traditionally were excluded from the House of Elders. Two ministers among the 24 cabinet ministers were women.
A woman chaired the Somaliland Human Rights Commission, while a minority youth served as deputy chair. The Somaliland president consulted with a presidential advisor on minority problems.