Executive Summary
Afghanistan has a poor, agrarian economy with a small manufacturing base, few value-added industries, and a partially dollarized economy. International financial and security support has been instrumental in growing the Afghan economy from a $2.4 billion GDP in 2001 to $19.4 billion in 2016. In addition, various estimates place the value of the informal economy to be about $4.1 billion. Government expenses will continue to far exceed revenues, resulting in continued dependency on international donors for the foreseeable future, although the Government of National Unity (GNU) has been able to significantly increase tax revenue by implementing reforms and improved tax collection procedures.
The drawdown of international forces from 2012-2014 significantly slowed economic growth as demand for transport, construction, telecommunications and other services fell. Economic growth averaged 9.4 percent from 2003-12. The IMF, however, estimated growth at only three percent for 2017. The IMF noted that a return to growth is conditioned on improvements in the security sector, strong reform, and investments in key economic sectors, such as mining and agriculture. Much higher growth rates are required to support a three percent population growth and roughly 400,000 new entrants into the labor market each year.
Agriculture remains Afghanistan’s most important source of employment: 60-80 percent of Afghanistan’s population works in this sector, although it accounts for less than a third of GDP due to insufficient irrigation, uneven rainfall, lack of market access, and other structural impediments. Most Afghan farmers are primarily subsistence farmers.
The government is undertaking initiatives to attract private-sector Afghan and foreign investment, including promotion of public-private partnerships and streamlining the business license registration process. In 2017, new firm registration increased 17 percent from 2016 registration levels. Afghanistan has a small formal financial services sector and domestic credit remains tight.
Challenges to business in Afghanistan center around a still-developing legal environment, security, varying interpretations of tax law, and the impact of corruption on administration.
On the enabling environment for business, the Afghan government at all levels has publicly emphasized its commitment to fostering private sector-led development and increasing domestic and foreign investment. Important government and civil society efforts to build an enabling environment for the private sector and to expand investment by developing natural resources and infrastructure have been hindered by institutional capacity, reliance on top-down decision making, and rent-seeking. In 2017, the government consolidated business licensing procedures under the Afghanistan Central Business Registry (ACBR), streamlining the process. Additionally, the ACBR extended the validity of business licenses for three years and has reduced the licensing fee.
Afghanistan’s legal and regulatory frameworks and enforcement mechanisms remain irregularly implemented. The existence of three overlapping legal systems – Sharia (Islamic Law), Shura (traditional law and practice), and the formal system under the 2004 Constitution – can be confusing to investors and legal professionals.
While Afghanistan’s security challenges remain headline news, other challenges also significantly impact the business environment. For example, corruption often hampers fair application of laws, regulatory bodies lack capacity, and financial data systems are limited. Furthermore, although government officials express strong commitment to a market economy and foreign investment, Afghan and foreign business leaders report this attitude is not always reflected in practice. Private sector leaders routinely note that some government officials levy unofficial taxes and inflict bureaucratic delays to extract rents.
Table 1
Measure |
Year |
Index/Rank |
Website Address |
TI Corruption Perceptions Index |
2017 |
177 of 180 |
|
World Bank’s Doing Business Report “Ease of Doing Business” |
2017 |
183 of 190 |
|
Global Innovation Index |
2017 |
N/A |
|
U.S. FDI in partner country ($M USD, stock positions) |
2016 |
USD 3.0 million |
|
World Bank GNI per capita |
2016 |
USD 580 |