EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Located in Central Africa, Burundi is one of the seven member states of the East African Community (EAC). Burundi is one of the world’s most impoverished countries, with 87 percent of the population living below the World Bank’s poverty measure of $1.90 per day, 80-90 percent of the population reliant on agriculture (mostly subsistence farming) and a youth unemployment rate of about 65 percent. Economic growth is insufficient to create employment for Burundi’s rapidly growing population. President Ndayishimiye, in power since June 2020, has taken some steps to promote good political and economic governance to improve the business environment, fight corruption, promote fiscal transparency and, most recently, enact needed banking and currency reforms. His administration seeks to increase existing value chains to find new sources of employment and revenue and to find new revenue streams. Despite these efforts, corruption, an ill-equipped bureaucracy, and rule-of-law deficiencies remain endemic.
The Government of Burundi (GoB) continues to try to attract more foreign direct investment (FDI). Since taking office, President Ndayishimiye has made or hosted multiple state visits with potential trade and development partners. Given the importance of agriculture, the GoB is promoting initiatives to modernize and diversify agricultural production, seeking to increase production of crops beyond coffee and tea. To attract FDI, the GoB must address an array of longstanding challenges, including: poor governance and weak institutional capacity; pervasive corruption; a low-skilled workforce; only 12 percent electrification nationwide; poor internet connectivity; and limited availability of reliable economic statistics.
The GoB is working to develop infrastructure, including photovoltaic and hydroelectric power plants, roads construction projects, the rehabilitation of Bujumbura Port, upgrading Bujumbura’s international airport, and the construction of a railway joining Burundi, DRC and Tanzania to improve access to the country, reduce transportation costs, and boost regional trade. The demand for electricity and water significantly exceeds capacity, and the transmission system is old and poorly maintained, leading to frequent outages. In June 2021, the government suspended all mining activities of the main foreign companies operating in the country, pending revision of the mining code and renegotiations of mining contracts. A new draft code was approved by the Council of Ministers in February 2022, but has not yet been adopted by the legislature or signed into law and the mining sector remains closed to private companies.
In April 2023, the GoB and the IMF reached a staff-level agreement on a 40-month arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) with access of SDR 200.2 million (or about $261.7 million), the first Upper Credit Tranche-quality program for Burundi supported by the Fund since 2015. The program aims to restore external sustainability and strengthen debt sustainability, while supporting economic recovery from shocks and creating fiscal space for accelerated and inclusive growth.
Burundi’s economy has been hit by several shocks internally and externally, halting its recovery from the negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and heightening its macroeconomic imbalances. These include delayed rainfall in 2022, which affected crops and heightened food insecurity, limited availability of fertilizer due to limited foreign exchange (FX) for imports, supply disruptions linked to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and outbreaks of Rift Valley Fever and porcine fevers that hampered livestock production. IMF estimated that real GDP growth slowed to 1.8 percent in 2022 (down from 3.1 percent in 2021) but projected a rebound to 3.3 percent in 2023. Nevertheless, delayed harvests and lower crop productivity in 2022 will likely impact agricultural production in 2023.
Inflation pressures have not receded. Inflation averaged 18.9 percent in 2022 and has continued to accelerate (28.6 percent at the end of January 2023), driven mainly by high prices for staples. Inflation is projected to remain high at around 18 percent in 2023. Higher import prices have pushed up inflation, widened the fiscal deficit, and heightened current account pressures.
The GoB indicates it plans to return to fiscal consolidation FY2023/24 (July-June), strengthening revenue collection efforts and restraining spending while preserving social spending and scaling up investment under the country’s Public Investment Plan (PIP). The GoB projects that public debt will decline over the medium term under the PIP through external rebalancing and unwinding of monetary financing. The central bank (BRB) indicates it is committed to recalibrating monetary and external policies to address below-adequate foreign exchange reserves (1.5 months of imports at the end of 2022) and in May took steps to address the large parallel FX market premium. To that end, the BRB initiated FX market liberalization, reauthorizing commercial banks to accept and distribute foreign currencies and looking to the Interbank Currency Market (composed of commercial banks and exchange bureaus) for market-based FX rates rather than the BRB setting official exchange rates based on non-market factors. Governance and structural reforms will be at the core of the authorities’ medium-term program to create a business environment conducive to private-led diversified and inclusive growth and job creation.
Measure | Year | Index/Rank | Website Address |
---|---|---|---|
TI Corruption Perceptions Index | 2022 | 171 of 180 | http://www.transparency.org/research/cpi/overview |
Global Innovation Index | 2022 | 130 of 132 | https://www.globalinnovationindex.org/analysis-indicator |
U.S. FDI in partner country ($M USD, historical stock positions) | 2021 | USD 1.0 M | https://apps.bea.gov/international/factsheet/ |
World Bank GNI per capita | 2021 | USD 220 | https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GNP.PCAP.CD |