EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
With improving security conditions in metropolitan areas, a market of 51.8 million people, an abundance of natural resources, and an educated and growing middle-class, Colombia continues to be an attractive destination for foreign investment in Latin America. While direct foreign investment remained strong in 2022, President Gustavo Petro, Colombia’s first-ever leftist president who took office in August 2022, has supported the concept of domestic sovereignty in key economic sectors, creating high levels of uncertainty within the private sector.
The Colombian economy grew by 7.5% in 2022, the highest growth in the hemisphere among OECD countries and the second-highest growth rate within the OECD as a whole. This strong positive growth, for the second consecutive year, is a sign of economic stabilization after the disruptions caused by the COVID crisis and related social unrest. Growth in 2022 was concentrated in the performance of the commerce sector (which contributed 4.5 percentage points), manufacturing industries (especially in textiles), and artistic and entertainment activities and was boosted by high commodity prices. While agricultural exports continued to expand, the sector at large was harmed by rising prices of fertilizer following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In July 2021, rating agencies Fitch and Standard & Poor’s (S&P) downgraded Colombia below investment grade status. The Colombian government passed a tax reform that came into effect in January 2023, seeking to reactivate the economy, generate employment, and contribute to the fiscal stability of the country. The government also plans health, labor, and pension reforms, which has caused some concerns among investors. According to the Fedesarrollo and Colombian Stock Exchange Financial Opinion survey (EOF), economic analysts forecast a median 1.1% GDP growth for 2023.
Colombia’s legal and regulatory systems generally are transparent and consistent with international norms. The country has a comprehensive legal framework for business and foreign direct investment (FDI). The 2012 U.S.-Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement (CTPA) has strengthened bilateral trade and investment. Colombia’s dispute settlement mechanisms have improved through the CTPA and several international conventions and treaties. Weaknesses include protection of intellectual property rights (IPR), as Colombia has yet to implement certain IPR-related CTPA provisions. Colombia became the 37th member of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in 2020, bringing an obligation to adhere to OECD norms and standards in economic operations.
The Colombian government has made a concerted effort to develop efficient capital markets, attract investment, and create jobs; however, restrictions on foreign ownership in specific sectors still exist. According to the Colombian Central Bank, FDI grew 57.7% between 2021 and 2022. Roughly half of the Colombian workforce in metropolitan areas is employed in the informal economy, a figure that increases to four-fifths in rural areas. According to the Colombian Statistics Department (Dane), there were 22.4 million employed people, a 973,000 increase over 2021. In December 2022, Colombia’s unemployment rate was 10.3% (or 2.5 million people), 1.2% below December 2021.
Since the 2016 peace agreement between the government and the demobilized Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), Colombia has experienced a significant decrease in terrorist activity. Several powerful narco-criminal operations still pose threats to commercial activity and investment, especially in rural zones outside of government control. The Petro administration is seeking negotiations with illegal armed groups not part of the prior peace accord under a policy called “Total Peace.” Results have varied as official negotiations with political groups have been slow, and most armed groups escalated violence by engaging in turf wars with one another. The presence of illicit economies run by armed groups, often entangled in legal supply chains in some parts of Colombia, presents a challenge to the development of reliable, sustainable livelihoods.
Corruption remains a significant challenge. The Colombian government continues to work on improving its business climate, but U.S. and other foreign investors voice complaints about non-tariff, regulatory, and bureaucratic barriers to trade, investment, and market access at the national, regional, and municipal levels. Stakeholders express concern that some regulatory rulings in Colombia target specific companies, resulting in an uneven playing field. Investors generally have access at all levels of the Colombian government but cite a lack of effective and timely consultation with regulatory agencies in decisions that affect them. Investors also note concern regarding the national competition and regulatory authority’s (Superintendencia de Industria y Comercio, SIC) differing rulings for different companies on similar issues, and slow processing at some regulatory agencies, such as at food and drug regulator INVIMA.
Measure | Year | Index/Rank | Website Address |
---|---|---|---|
TI Corruption Perceptions Index | 2022 | 91 of 180 | http://www.transparency.org/research/cpi/overview |
Global Innovation Index | 2022 | 63 of 132 | https://www.globalinnovationindex.org/analysis-indicator |
U.S. FDI in partner country ($M USD, historical stock positions) | 2021 | $6,802 | https://apps.bea.gov/international/factsheet/ |
World Bank GNI per capita | 2021 | $6,190 | http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GNP.PCAP.CD |