EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The government of Malawi is working with the IMF to meet the requirements of an Extended Credit Facility (ECF); however, the negotiations remain ongoing and inconclusive. Fiscal deficits continue to expand, and revenue mobilization remains a challenge. A growing trade imbalance, dwindling foreign reserves and persistent inflation compound economic pressures. Government fraud and corruption scandals have led to dwindling donor support over the last few years. Gross domestic product growth slowed to 1.2 percent in 2022, down from 4.6 percent in 2021. The economy was hit hard by COVID-19, resulting in a near recession growth level of 0.8 percent in 2020. The government forecasts slight economic growth at 2.7 percent in 2023 but is cautious about the macroeconomic and fiscal challenges. The government’s heavy debt burden and persistent fiscal deficits are likely to restrain economic expansion that outpaces population growth. Tropical cyclone Freddy impacted southern Malawi in March 2023, leaving a wide swath of damage and destruction to energy and road infrastructure, homes, cultivated fields, and a heavy toll on human lives with more than 500,000 people displaced and 500 fatalities.
The Reserve Bank of Malawi (RBM) devalued the currency by 25 percent in May 2022, subsequent poor agricultural harvests in 2022 resulted in food shortages both of which ultimately sharp increases in food and non-food inflation. Overall Inflation jumped from 9.1 percent in 2021 to 20.9 percent in 2022 and is forecasted to remain high at 18.2 percent in 2023. The economy is heavily dependent on agriculture and is particularly vulnerable to climate related shocks. Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has worsened agricultural prospects through disruptions to the supply chain and shortages of fertilizers. The price of imported raw and finished materials is also significantly impacted by supply chain disruptions, further driving up prices of domestic goods and services.
The Government of Malawi is eager to attract foreign direct investment. Investment opportunities exist in agricultural, mining, health, transportation, information technology, and energy. Transportation is a potential growth sector as the government works to improve infrastructure, the road network, and rehabilitate railway lines connecting Malawi to Mozambique, Zambia, and Tanzania. Public-Private Partnership opportunities are likely to open in aviation, energy, and road networks. Corruption remains a major problem at all levels of the public and private sectors. There is a scarcity of skilled and semi-skilled labor. Political risk in Malawi is manageable and tribal, religious, regional, ethnic, or racial tensions are minimal.
The Malawi Investment and Trade Center assists investors and businesses by providing insight and local knowledge to help navigate the myriad regulations, processes, and procedures required to operate a business. Malawi’s legal system is generally unbiased but is notoriously slow. Investors have the right to establish, acquire, and dispose of interests in business enterprises. Government enacted amendments to the land laws in 2022 which include clauses that negatively affect foreign ownership and investment in land-based enterprises.
Scarcity of foreign exchange (forex) remains a challenge and negatively affects investors. The government aims to maintain a three-month supply of forex, but often falls short of that goal. Forex rationing has led to several months wait for business to remit foreign investment funds. Despite the long wait times, there are currently no restrictions on remittance of foreign investment funds if the capital and loans initially came from foreign sources and were registered with the RBM. The government is expected to pass a new foreign exchange bill during the April 2023 session of Parliament. The new act will impose strict controls and restrictions on forex transactions, bank accounts, and holding or traveling out of Malawi with foreign currency.
Malawi is a land-locked country and the road network connecting to ports in neighboring countries is limited. Investment in infrastructure overall has been limited. Formal and informal trade boundaries may restrict imports and exports, and import tariffs tend to be high. Malawi is one of the least electrified countries in the world; approximately 12 percent of households have access to the national grid, and less than 7 percent have access to electricity from standalone solar photovoltaic systems. Impacts from tropical cyclones in 2022 knocked approximately 30 percent of the country’s electricity generating capacity offline; repairs remain in-progress. A key government development target is for universal access to clean and affordable energy by 2030; 30 percent from grid and 70 percent off-grid, solar islands, however this is unlikely to be met. Internet is unreliable, and expensive. These challenges present opportunities for investment.
The government is committed to addressing climate change through climate smart policies and programs. The Environmental Management Act provides details on environmental requirements for investors and Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs). Climate change issues are integrated across the public service and national development plans. The government established the national climate change fund with seed capital of $500,000 for its operationalization. Limited resources and issues related to poverty continue to impede the government’s ability to implement climate adaptation and resilience programs and initiatives.
Malawi’s borders are open to local and international travelers. In February 2023, government removed all COVID-19 requirements for travelers. Travelers are no longer required to present negative COVID-19 test results and certificate of COVID-19 vaccination.
Measure | Year | Index/Rank | Website Address |
---|---|---|---|
TI Corruption Perceptions Index | 2022 | 110 of 180 | http://www.transparency.org/research/cpi/overview |
Global Innovation Index | 2021 | 107 of 132 | https://www.globalinnovationindex.org/analysis-indicator |
U.S. FDI in partner country ($M USD, historical stock positions) | 2021 | USD 180 million | https://apps.bea.gov/international/factsheet/ |
World Bank GNI per capita | 2021 | USD 620 | http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GNP.PCAP.CD |